DOF and Information Criteria Calculations for United States Temperature and Precipitation Data

DOF and Information Criteria Calculations for United States Temperature and Precipitation Data
Title DOF and Information Criteria Calculations for United States Temperature and Precipitation Data PDF eBook
Author
Publisher
Pages 64
Release 2013
Genre Dissertations, Academic
ISBN

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This thesis addresses two approaches to describe the complexity of US climate data. The basis for our analyses is provided by a partition of the contiguous United States into 120 grid boxes of size 2:5° x 3:5° by latitude and longitude, respectively. The first part deals with the determination of spatial degrees of freedom (DOF) for monthly United States Historical Climatology Network, version 2 (USHCN V2) temperature and precipitation data from 1961 to 1990. The DOF can be interpreted as the effective number of statistically independent spatial locations of a climate field. The X2 and S methods are used to estimate the DOFs for each month and four different data sets. Estimates from the S method suggest that around two to six grid boxes suffice to explain temperature data while precipitation data is more complex and requires 6 to 30 grid boxes. The X2 method apparently underestimates the DOF in most cases but agrees with the S method in that climate in the summer months is affected by more independent influences than in the winter months. Based on the results from the S method three different methods are used to find the supposedly most independent subsets of grid boxes. Each method computes a value of interest for all underlying subsets. The X2 and S DOF maximization methods find the subset with the highest DOF value from the respective DOF estimation method if only data from the considered subset is used for estimation. The correlation minimization method minimizes a so-called correlation value. By visual judgment most of the determined subsets depict a fairly uniform distribution. The second part starts by discussing theory on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and gives an example of their application to a linear regression model. Subsequently an optimal average method is introduced which serves to determine optimal weights for empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) in the approximation of mean squared errors (MSE) between theoretical values of temperature anomaly averages and a discrete sum to compute them in practice using the partition of the contiguous US into grid boxes. The AIC and BIC criteria are applied to MSEs computed for USHCN V2 temperature data from 1897 to 2010 in an attempt to determine optimal modes, i.e. cutoff points for the MSE approximation. Based on the results an inconsistency in the theory is discovered: the idea of MSEs considered in the optimal average method doesn't correspond to MSEs in a regression model. Thus AIC and BIC are not appropriate to determine the optimal modes.

Our Changing Planet

Our Changing Planet
Title Our Changing Planet PDF eBook
Author Climate Change Science Program (U.S.)
Publisher
Pages 226
Release 2006
Genre Climatic changes
ISBN

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Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Management Options

Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Management Options
Title Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Management Options PDF eBook
Author James M. Vose
Publisher CRC Press
Pages 494
Release 2013-12-05
Genre Nature
ISBN 1466572752

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Forest land managers face the challenges of preparing their forests for the impacts of climate change. However, climate change adds a new dimension to the task of developing and testing science-based management options to deal with the effects of stressors on forest ecosystems in the southern United States. The large spatial scale and complex interactions make traditional experimental approaches difficult. Yet, the current progression of climate change science offers new insights from recent syntheses, models, and experiments, providing enough information to start planning now for a future that will likely include an increase in disturbances and rapid changes in forest conditions. Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Management Options: A Guide for Natural Resource Managers in Southern Forest Ecosystems provides a comprehensive analysis of forest management options to guide natural resource management in the face of future climate change. Topics include potential climate change impacts on wildfire, insects, diseases, and invasives, and how these in turn might affect the values of southern forests that include timber, fiber, and carbon; water quality and quantity; species and habitats; and recreation. The book also considers southern forest carbon sequestration, vulnerability to biological threats, and migration of native tree populations due to climate change. This book utilizes the most relevant science and brings together science experts and land managers from various disciplines and regions throughout the south to combine science, models, and on-the-ground experience to develop management options. Providing a link between current management actions and future management options that would anticipate a changing climate, the authors hope to ensure a broader range of options for managing southern forests and protecting their values in the future.

Methodological Approaches in Physical Geography

Methodological Approaches in Physical Geography
Title Methodological Approaches in Physical Geography PDF eBook
Author Firuza Begham Mustafa
Publisher Springer Nature
Pages 183
Release 2022-09-01
Genre Science
ISBN 3031071131

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Geography science aims to observe the dynamics in describing earth's surface as a place and space for humans to carry out their lives, starting from simple identification using recording and sketching models, then utilizing tools such as maps, satellite imagery, statistics and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). In the development of geography science, it is appropriate to explain phenomena of the earth in the present context along with the process of developing science and technology using suitable and effective methods. Physical geography is the branch of natural science that deals with the study of processes and patterns in the natural environment such as the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere and biosphere. This book covers the methodology of the study for all aspects of physical geography, biosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and atmosphere. A comprehensive geography textbook consists of a detailed research methodology for physical geography research including a few selected case studies in Asia. The uniqueness of this book is due to the contribution of several professors and subject experts from South East and East Asia with special particular reference to cases studies from a particular region. This book covered selected methodological approaches for hydrology, climatology and geomorphology including the discovery of the best method for exploring and assessing mysterious physical phenomena using a diversity of methodologies. This book explains the principal concept, basic method, optional method, detailed description of each method, and the advantages and disadvantages of the various methods. The technique of data selection, data acquisition, method of analysis, data interpretation and data analysis techniques with a specific focus on deterministic modeling, geography techniques, geospatial modeling with Geographic Information System (GIS), Artificial Intelligence (AI), Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and Automated machine techniques and combination of statistical analysis. This book attempts to explore different approaches, methodological possibilities and challenges in conducting geographical research in physical geography. New digital geographic data sources and GIS applications can help researchers to receive clearer concepts and obtain better measurements of the relevant attributes changes in the physical environment. Opportunity to critically examine the conceptualization and identification of the field in geographical research and how digital media has not only expanded the scope of what constitutes the field but has redefined the field in itself as well as the practices of observing, knowing, and analyzing the real world.

Introduction to Aircraft Flight Mechanics

Introduction to Aircraft Flight Mechanics
Title Introduction to Aircraft Flight Mechanics PDF eBook
Author Thomas R. Yechout
Publisher AIAA
Pages 666
Release 2003
Genre Aerodynamics
ISBN 9781600860782

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Based on a 15-year successful approach to teaching aircraft flight mechanics at the US Air Force Academy, this text explains the concepts and derivations of equations for aircraft flight mechanics. It covers aircraft performance, static stability, aircraft dynamics stability and feedback control.

Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States

Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States
Title Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States PDF eBook
Author National Research Council
Publisher National Academies Press
Pages 348
Release 2009-07-29
Genre Law
ISBN 0309142393

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Scores of talented and dedicated people serve the forensic science community, performing vitally important work. However, they are often constrained by lack of adequate resources, sound policies, and national support. It is clear that change and advancements, both systematic and scientific, are needed in a number of forensic science disciplines to ensure the reliability of work, establish enforceable standards, and promote best practices with consistent application. Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward provides a detailed plan for addressing these needs and suggests the creation of a new government entity, the National Institute of Forensic Science, to establish and enforce standards within the forensic science community. The benefits of improving and regulating the forensic science disciplines are clear: assisting law enforcement officials, enhancing homeland security, and reducing the risk of wrongful conviction and exoneration. Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States gives a full account of what is needed to advance the forensic science disciplines, including upgrading of systems and organizational structures, better training, widespread adoption of uniform and enforceable best practices, and mandatory certification and accreditation programs. While this book provides an essential call-to-action for congress and policy makers, it also serves as a vital tool for law enforcement agencies, criminal prosecutors and attorneys, and forensic science educators.

Coping with Drought Risk in Agriculture and Water Supply Systems

Coping with Drought Risk in Agriculture and Water Supply Systems
Title Coping with Drought Risk in Agriculture and Water Supply Systems PDF eBook
Author Ana Iglesias
Publisher Springer Science & Business Media
Pages 320
Release 2009-01-22
Genre Technology & Engineering
ISBN 1402090455

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Over the last three decades drought episodes have resulted in severe social problems in Mediterranean countries, receiving broad attention from the international scientific and policy communities. The experiences in the development and implementation of drought management plans highlight the success and challenges of coping with drought for societies with different vulnerabilities and emphasize risk-based drought management as a critical approach to mitigate the impacts associated to drought-induced water shortages. Based on these experiences and the current methods for evaluating risk, the book synthesises guidelines for drought management that link science and policy and that can be applied to other regions. The book comprises a collection of papers divided into four sections that appeal to a broad audience. First, the social and hydrological context of Mediterranean countries is presented, discussing the interactions that have resulted in the complex institutional framework, and highlighting the importance of stakeholder involvement and awareness building for successful drought management. This section emphasises the role of organizations, institutions, and civil stakeholders involved in drought preparedness and mitigation and/or on water management for designing effective risk based strategies that mitigate the effects of drought in agriculture and water supply systems. Second, the book presents an academic approach to risk evaluation, including characterization of drought episodes, development of indicators of risk in hydrological and agricultural systems, and analysis of the role of economic instruments and groundwater for risk mitigation. This section finalises with the description of an integrated method for evaluating social vulnerability based on indicators that include the capacity to anticipate, cope, and respond to drought. The third section includes a collection of case studies that include the description of effective measures taken in the past. These case studies provide the context for developing demand driven guidelines that may be applied to other regions. The authors of these chapters can be viewed as stakeholders in drought management, since they represent a broad range of sectors and institutions from Mediterranean European and North African countries. The topics addressed have implications for the international policy community interested in disaster mitigation, agricultural policy, and development. Finally a synthesis of the management actions is presented in four chapters. Monitoring and preparedness planning is the essential first step for moving from disaster to risk management in response to drought. The management actions related to agriculture and water supply systems are presented in two different chapters but with a common conceptual framework based on the use of drought indicators for evaluating the levels of drought risk (pre-alert, alert, and emergency), that allow establishing linkages between science and policy. The final chapter discuses the lessons learned and application to other regions.