This paper studies market expectations of a devaluation of the Irish pound from 1987 to 1993 and relates them to the evolution of Ireland’s competitiveness over the same period. Changes in expectations of the currency’s devaluation can be explained largely by developments outside Ireland, particularly by past and anticipated movements of sterling. The evolution of Ireland’s real exchange rate over the same period is also found to be strongly linked to sterling’s fluctuations, even after adjusting for sterling-insensitive trade between Ireland and the United Kingdom, and despite the significant progress toward trade diversification recorded by Ireland during the 1980s. The devaluation of the Irish pound in January 1993 is estimated to exceed investors’ realignment expectations at that time as well as the loss of Irish competitiveness since the beginning of the ERM crisis in the summer of 1992. This “excess devaluation” helps explain subsequent large capital inflows and the Irish pound’s smooth transition to the wide ERM band in August 1993.

Irreversible investment is especially sensitive to such risk factors as volatile exchange rates and uncertainty about tariff structures and future cash flows. If the goal of macroeconomic policy is to stimulate investment, stability and credibility may be more important than tax incentives or interest rates.

Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.

This article analyzes the theory of equilibrium real exchange rates and defines misalignment as a deviation of the real exchange rate (RER) from its equilibrium level. The role of macroeconomic policies is then analyzed under three alternative nominal exchange rate regimes: predetermined nominal exchange rates; floating nominal rates; and dual or black market nominal exchange rates. This discussion points out how inconsistent macroeconomic policies often lead to real exchange rate misalignment. Corrective measures, including nominal devaluation and several alternative approaches, are then evaluated.

This important book is a teaching manual, in nontechnical language, on policymaking in developing countries. Written at the request of the Economic Development Institute of the World Bank, the papers focus on policy instruments, their use and constraints, and provide case studies of economic policy in Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia, Korea, and Mexico to illustrate basic problems and possible solutions.

This book analyses and explains the nature of the economies of small countries and territories. It includes an assessment of material prosperity in 41 small open economies worldwide, with case studies focusing on the Caribbean and Central America, with a review of the development of their economies in recent decades. The volume recommends a suite of economic policy tools for the management of these economies, demonstrating how these may best be employed in economies that live and breathe through international commerce. Among observations of interest is the fact that the devaluation of the local currency of a small nation makes the country worse off; even a currency that maintains its value is little more than a trophy, of little value if it is not readily convertible into US dollars. Also, that while government policies affect international competitiveness and a small country's growth prospects, more important is how governments use additional resources to improve the quality of health and educational services. Moreover, economic windfalls such as the discovery of mineral resources seldom bring prosperity commensurate with their economic value, and never in the short run. The volume will offer invaluable information and analysis to researchers and policy makers investigating small open economies.