"The authors of this report assess how unconventional defense plans and capabilities -- to include total and comprehensive defense, societal resilience, and resistance strategies -- being pursued by the governments of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania (referred to as the Baltic states) can deter and counteract Russian hybrid aggression and military attacks in the Baltic region. They advance a framework for evaluating the utility of unconventional and total defense efforts at various phases of conflict for strengthening deterrence and defense. They identify military and civilian technologies that could enhance the effectiveness of these efforts, the cost of procuring those technologies, and possible tradeoffs with the development of conventional defense capabilities. The authors estimate that a robust technology initiative to enhance these capabilities for all three states would cost about $125 million, could be implemented over several years, and is scalable. The authors also discuss the benefits and risks of expanding unconventional and total defense efforts and potential Russian responses and countermeasures. Finally, they outline steps that the Baltic governments, the United States, other NATO allies and partners, and the European Union could take to enhance these efforts. The authors conclude that total defense and unconventional warfare capabilities can complement the existing conventional defense efforts of the Baltic states and NATO, improve warning of an attack, augment initial defenses, and buy time for (and provide support to) national and NATO conventional responses"--RAND web site

"Over the last twenty years, Russia has observed and studied how the US prepares and executes military operations, and it is now time for the US and NATO to recognize how Russia conducts operations to achieve its political objectives. Recent Russian operations provide a sneak peek at how Russia may act in the future in a region that, history has shown, is of particular interest to Russia. The single event which most stoked the fire of conflict between Russia and the Baltic states was the joining of NATO in 2004 by Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. This paper recommends that NATO and the US implement a portfolio of deterrence measures across all instruments of power that are focused on vulnerabilities within the Baltic states which Russia could capitalize upon to expand its regional influence without triggering an Article 5 response. In the final analysis, the risks of not enacting strong deterrent measures within the Baltic states could prove disastrous not only to Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, but to the NATO Alliance as well. The US and NATO must make it abundantly clear to Russia that there is a line that cannot be crossed without serious consequences. The cost will be great in both blood and treasure to compel Russia to reverse a move it already made. The implementation of this paper's recommendations will send a crystal clear message to Russia of the US and NATO's full commitment to the Baltic states, their willingness to go to war to defend them, and the enduring strength of NATO's collective security guarantee."--Abstract.

Document submitted April 17, 2017, as an addendum to testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces on March 1, 2017.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine and swift annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 put the West on notice. To reassert the prestige lost since the Cold War's end, Russian President Vladimir Putin galvanized his political base with the promise of revanchism. The recent case of Ukraine is particularly alarming not only due to the forceful seizure of territory but also the "hybrid" warfighting techniques employed by Russian forces. The Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, former Soviet Republics with fledgling Western governments located on Russia's immediate border and, importantly, members of the NATO alliance, seem a logical future target for aggression. For the United States and NATO, the costs of failing to deter Russia's revanchist ambitions are clear; either initiating a costly campaign to liberate an Alliance member or allowing Russia to remake the post-Cold War order.In the context of the recent conflict in Ukraine and the binding nature of NATO's collective security "guarantee," this paper will examine the steps the U.S. and NATO can reasonably take to deter Russia's revanchist ambitions in the Baltic republics, particularly from the threat of hybrid warfare. It will begin by providing a brief history of the Baltic Republics and the threat posed by Russia and hybrid warfare. Next, this paper will explore the strategic interests of the main protagonists and consider the requirements for an effective deterrent strategy. Finally, it will examine various ways and means across the various instruments of power that might be applied to deter Russian aggression in the Baltics, especially from the threat of hybrid warfare. In the final analysis, it is only through resolute action in implementing policy recommendations that encompass all instruments of power that the U.S. and NATO will be able to effectively deter Russian aggression and achieve their strategic interests in the region.This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.

How should the countries in the Baltic Sea region and their allies meet the strategic challenges posed by an openly aggressive and expansionist Russia? NATO and the nonaligned states in the region are now more concerned about an external threat than they have been since the end of the Cold War. Russia has been probing air space, maritime boundaries, and even land borders from the Baltic republics to Sweden. Russia's undermining of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea worries former Soviet republics with Russian minority populations, nonaligned Sweden and Finland are enhancing their cooperation with NATO, and the Trump presidency has created some doubt about America's willingness to follow through on NATO's collective defense commitment. Ann-Sofie Dahl brings together an international group of experts to examine Baltic security issues on a state-by-state basis and to contemplate what is needed to deter Russia in the region. The contributors analyze ways to strengthen regional cooperation, and to ensure that security in the region stays at the top of the agenda at a time of many competing strategic perspectives in the transatlantic community. This book will be of great interest to foreign policy and defense practitioners in the US and Europe as well as scholars and students of international relations.

In the event of an occupation of Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania, a conventional military intervention by allies--including the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the European Union, and the United States--would be crucial for the Baltic countries to regain national independence. But Baltic civilians could play a powerful role in their own defense--and, in fact, the Baltic countries' constitutions and national security strategies highlight the importance of the willingness and preparedness of their civilians to meet external aggression with resilience and resistance. Increasingly, Baltic governments consider national military defense to be closely intertwined with nonmilitary capabilities, and each has introduced a whole-of-society approach into high-level strategy and policy documents. RAND researchers sought to better understand the nature and effectiveness of contributions that Baltic civilians could make to a resistance campaign during a notional occupation. In this report, using an original analytical framework, the authors examine historic episodes of Baltic armed resistance from 1940 to 1955 and unarmed resistance from 1955 to 1991. Drawing from this analysis, the authors examine more-recent plans and policies to prepare Baltic populations for crises and consider the contributions that Baltic civilians could make during an occupation scenario by imposing costs on an adversary, securing external support, denying an occupier's political and economic consolidation, reducing an occupier's capacity for repression, and maintaining and expanding popular support for resistance. Finally, the authors present recommendations for how allies and partners can support the Baltic countries in strengthening civilian capacity for resilience and resistance.

"Russia's invasion of Ukraine and swift annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 put the West on notice. To reassert the prestige lost since the Cold War's end, Russian President Vladimir Putin galvanized his political base with the promise of revanchism. The recent case of Ukraine is particularly alarming not only due to the forceful seizure of territory but also the "hybrid" warfighting techniques employed by Russian forces. The Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, former Soviet Republics with fledgling Western governments located on Russia's immediate border and, importantly, members of the NATO alliance, seem a logical future target for aggression. For the United States and NATO, the costs of failing to deter Russia's revanchist ambitions are clear; either initiating a costly campaign to liberate an Alliance member or allowing Russia to remake the post-Cold War order. In the context of the recent conflict in Ukraine and the binding nature of NATO's collective security "guarantee," this paper will examine the steps the U.S. and NATO can reasonably take to deter Russia's revanchist ambitions in the Baltic republics, particularly from the threat of hybrid warfare. It will begin by providing a brief history of the Baltic Republics and the threat posed by Russia and hybrid warfare. Next, this paper will explore the strategic interests of the main protagonists and consider the requirements for an effective deterrent strategy. Finally, it will examine various ways and means across the various instruments of power that might be applied to deter Russian aggression in the Baltics, especially from the threat of hybrid warfare. In the final analysis, it is only through resolute action in implementing policy recommendations that encompass all instruments of power that the U.S. and NATO will be able to effectively deter Russian aggression and achieve their strategic interests in the region."--Abstract.