Examines how effective federal tax rates will change over the coming decade under current law -- that is, if the provisions of tax laws enacted in 2001, 2002, & 2003 phase in, phase out, & ¿sunset¿ as scheduled. Under current law & the assumption that incomes grow at a constant rate, the overall effective federal tax rate drops from 21.5% in 2001 to 19.6% in 2004. It then rises irregularly over the subsequent decade as tax provisions phase in & out. The increases in the effective tax rate between 2005 & 2010 & between 2011 & 2014 occur primarily because rising real incomes move taxpayers into higher tax brackets & the alternative minimum tax affects more taxpayers over time. Charts & tables.