This paper estimates an empirical nonstationary panel regression model that tests long-run consumption risk sharing across a sample of OECD and emerging market (EM) countries. This is in contrast to the existing literature on consumption risk sharing, which is mainly about risks at business cycle frequency. Since our methodology focuses on identifying cointegrating relationships while allowing for arbitrary short-run dynamics, we can obtain a consistent estimate of long-run risk sharing while disregarding any short-run nuisance factors. Our results show that long-run risk sharing in OECD countries increased more than that in EM countries during the past two decades.

International risk-sharing has far-reaching implications both for economic policy and for basic research in economics. When countries do not share consumption risk, individuals experience consumption fluctuations that are undesirable and possibly unnecessary. We investigate bilateral risk-sharing at short vs. long horizons. We find substantial cross-country consumption correlations at trend and business-cycle frequencies. Correlations are particularly high within Europe. Prior research focused on first-difference correlations, which are typically quite low. We argue that this reflects measurement error. At all horizons, we find that consumption correlations are not significantly different from output correlations, implying a lack of deliberate consumption risk-sharing. Le partage international du risque a de grandes implications à la fois pour la politique économique et pour la recherche économique de base. Quand des pays ne partagent pas les risques de consommation, les individus font l'expérience de fluctuations de consommation indésirables et possiblement non-nécessaires. On examine le partage de risque bilatéral à court et à long terme. On découvre des corrélations entre pays tant au niveau des tendances que des fréquences du cycle d'affaires. Ces corrélations sont particulièrement élevées en Europe. Des travaux antérieurs se sont concentrés sur les corrélations entre premières différences qui sont typiquement assez faibles. On suggère que ces résultats reflètent une erreur de mesure. Pour tous les horizons temporels, on découvre que les corrélations de consommation ne diffèrent pas significativement des corrélations de production - ce qui implique un manque de partage de risque délibéré au niveau de la consommation.

This book offers an alternative framework for macroeconomic policy in Malaysia, derived from the universal principles of social justice espoused in the objectives of the Shariah. It attempts to holistically analyze issues related to public finance, which has been criticized for lack of transparency and justice in wealth distribution. This book explores these criticisms and discusses the principles of Islamic finance that may be applied to macroeconomic policymaking to create a better economy overall. It presents a case for a flat tax system, to make the economy more resilient to shocks, and financing methods that limit interest-rate-based debt contracts and allow greater risk sharing among the market participants on a broad scale. Using both qualitative and quantitative methods, this book models the Malaysian economy based on policies that apply the fundamental Islamic finance principle of risk sharing to demonstrate its benefits in spurring growth, promoting distributive justice, rendering the economy more stable, strengthening the potency of monetary policy, enhancing fiscal governance, and improving financial inclusion. The book will be of interest to students, policymakers, financial institutions, researchers, ministries of finance, central banks, securities commissions, and anyone interested in alternative economic paradigms.

Financial globalization has increased dramatically over the past three decades, particularly for advanced economies, while emerging market and developing countries experienced more moderate increases. Divergences across countries stem from different capital control regimes, and factors such as institutional quality and domestic financial development. Although, in principle, financial globalization should enhance international risk sharing, reduce macroeconomic volatility, and foster economic growth, in practice its effects are less clear-cut. This paper envisages a gradual and orderly sequencing of external financial liberalization and complementary reforms in macroeconomic policy framework as essential components of a successful liberalization strategy.

We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables—defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01°C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature increases and variability of climate conditions. We also provide supplementary evidence using data on a sample of 48 U.S. states between 1963 and 2016, and show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labor productivity and employment.

What conclusions can be drawn from recent advances in international trade and international macroeconomics? New datasets, theoretical models, and empirical studies have resulted in fresh questions about the world trade and payment system. These chapters--six on trade and six on international macroeconomics--reveal the richness that researchers have uncovered in recent years. The chapters on foreign trade present, among other subjects, new integrated multisector analytical frameworks, the use of gravity equations for the estimation of trade flows, the role of domestic institutions in shaping comparative advantage, and international trade agreements. On international macroeconomics, chapters explore the relation between exchange rates and other macroeconomic variables; risk sharing, allocation of capital across countries, and current account dynamics; and sovereign debt and financial crises. By addressing new issues while enabling deeper and sharper analyses of old issues, this volume makes a significant contribution to our understanding of the global economy. - Systematically illuminates and interprets recent developments in research on international trade and international macroeconomics - Focuses on newly developing questions and opportunities for future research - Presents multiple perspectives on ways to understand the global economy