Risk and uncertainty are inescapable factors in agriculture which require careful management. Farmers face production risks from the weather, crop and livestock performance, and pests and diseases, as well as institutional, personal and business risks. This revised third edition of the popular textbook includes updated chapters on theory and methods and contains a new chapter discussing the state-contingent approach to the analysis of production and the use of copulas to better model stochastic dependency. Aiming to introduce agricultural decision making, probability and risk preference, this book is an indispensable guide for students and researchers of agriculture and agribusiness management.

As with earlier editions, the aim of this book is to support better agricultural decision making by explaining what can be done nowadays in risk analysis and risk management. As before, the intended readership includes senior undergraduate or graduate students of agricultural and rural resource management, agricultural research workers, people involved in advising farmers, such as extension workers, financial advisers and veterinarians, some farmers themselves, and policy makers. Methods of risk analysis and management are evolving rapidly. This third edition includes some recent advances in both theory and methods of analysis. New material includes sections on state-contingent versus stochastic production functions and an introduction to the use of copulas for modelling stochastic dependency. Improvements in available software continue to expand the scope to better represent and model real-world risky choices, and this edition has updated its advice concerning use of contemporary software. The book has 13 chapters.

This book examines the implications of risk management for policy in agriculture. Opening with a chapter on risk management principles and guidelines for policy design in agriculture, the book goes on to look at quantitative analysis of risk and then at policy in various countries.

Over the last three decades drought episodes have resulted in severe social problems in Mediterranean countries, receiving broad attention from the international scientific and policy communities. The experiences in the development and implementation of drought management plans highlight the success and challenges of coping with drought for societies with different vulnerabilities and emphasize risk-based drought management as a critical approach to mitigate the impacts associated to drought-induced water shortages. Based on these experiences and the current methods for evaluating risk, the book synthesises guidelines for drought management that link science and policy and that can be applied to other regions. The book comprises a collection of papers divided into four sections that appeal to a broad audience. First, the social and hydrological context of Mediterranean countries is presented, discussing the interactions that have resulted in the complex institutional framework, and highlighting the importance of stakeholder involvement and awareness building for successful drought management. This section emphasises the role of organizations, institutions, and civil stakeholders involved in drought preparedness and mitigation and/or on water management for designing effective risk based strategies that mitigate the effects of drought in agriculture and water supply systems. Second, the book presents an academic approach to risk evaluation, including characterization of drought episodes, development of indicators of risk in hydrological and agricultural systems, and analysis of the role of economic instruments and groundwater for risk mitigation. This section finalises with the description of an integrated method for evaluating social vulnerability based on indicators that include the capacity to anticipate, cope, and respond to drought. The third section includes a collection of case studies that include the description of effective measures taken in the past. These case studies provide the context for developing demand driven guidelines that may be applied to other regions. The authors of these chapters can be viewed as stakeholders in drought management, since they represent a broad range of sectors and institutions from Mediterranean European and North African countries. The topics addressed have implications for the international policy community interested in disaster mitigation, agricultural policy, and development. Finally a synthesis of the management actions is presented in four chapters. Monitoring and preparedness planning is the essential first step for moving from disaster to risk management in response to drought. The management actions related to agriculture and water supply systems are presented in two different chapters but with a common conceptual framework based on the use of drought indicators for evaluating the levels of drought risk (pre-alert, alert, and emergency), that allow establishing linkages between science and policy. The final chapter discuses the lessons learned and application to other regions.

The purpose of the first edition of the book, published in 1997, was to contribute to improved agricultural decision making by explaining what can be done in risk analysis and management. Since 1997 progress has been made in risk analysis in agriculture. The material covered in this second edition has been restructured and most of the 1997 text has been revised. Topics that are more thoroughly dealt with in this edition include: assessing and quantifying the degree of risk aversion of a decision maker; judging how important risk aversion is likely to be in particular circumstances; an improved approach for partially ordering risky stochastic distributions when the decision maker's attitude to risk is not fully known; stochastic simulation and its combination with optimization for the analysis of risky choice; and risk considerations in agricultural policy making. The book is written for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students of agricultural economics and farm management, as well as advisers to farmers and agricultural research workers. It has 13 chapters and a subject index.

This guide is intended to help extension workers better understand the concept of risk, the situation where risk occurs and management strategies that can be used to reduce, or at least soften, its effect. It is hoped that the guide will be useful in assisting extension workers to provide farmers with advice on the kind of risk management strategies that they can employ to deal with risk in their day-to-day operations. In this way extension workers can help farmers recognize and understand the risks that they are likely to face and assist them in making better farm management decisions that reduce the negative effect of the risks encountered in farming.