Confused by the Odds will change the way you think about financial assets, the risks of the next global nuclear war, racial bias in policing, the role of genetics in intelligence, and medical tests. You will learn how to ignore flawed assumptions about the normal distribution of returns from investing in stocks and bitcoin. You will come away with a better understanding of the “Long Peace”—the last three-quarters of a century without a global war—and how it does not necessary bode well for the future. You’ll learn that randomized control experiments, the basis for much of science today, are not the gold standard of proof that most believe them to be and why they are part of the reason for the replicability crisis in science today. You’ll see how the US Navy searches for lost submarines and spam filters identify junk mail. You’ll understand how Democrats and Republicans come to dramatically different conclusions about everything from the outcome of the 2020 election to COVID-19. Confused by the Odds will give you the knowledge and tools to avoid being misled by probability. Many books have been published on probability laden with dense formula and proofs. This is not one of them. David Lockwood, a former member of the faculty of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University, presents intuitive explanations of the application of probability to practical, everyday problems—without all the equations. Through real-world examples, this book shows us how to never again be confused by the odds.

From the renowned author/illustrator of the Popularity Papers series, Amy Ignatow, comes the first installment in a new series about a diverse crew of middle school kids who develop very limited superhero powers after a strange accident and manage to become unlikely friends on the adventure of a lifetime. When a sweet nerd, an artsy cartoonist, a social outcast, and the most popular girl in school are involved in a mysterious bus accident, this seemingly random group of kids starts to notice some very strange abilities they did not have before. Artsy Martina can change her eye color. Nerdy Nick can teleport . . . four inches to the left. Outcast Farshad develops super strength, but only in his thumbs. And Cookie, the It Girl of school’s most popular clique, has suddenly developed the ability to read minds . . . when those minds are thinking about directions. They are oddly mighty—especially together. This group—who would never hang out under normal circumstances—must now combine all of their strengths to figure out what happened during the bus accident. With alternating narratives from each of the heroes, including illustrated pieces from Martina, and featuring bold female superheroes and a multicultural cast, The Mighty Odds is The Breakfast Club for a new generation. For more books by Amy Ignatow, check out her critically acclaimed Popularity Papers series: Book One: Research for the Social Improvement and General Betterment of Lydia Goldblatt and Julie Graham Chang; Book Two: The Long-Distance Dispatch; Book Three: Words of (Questionable) Wisdom; Book Four: The Rocky Road Trip; Book Five: The Awesomely Awful Melodies; Book Six: Love and Other Fiascos; and Book Seven: The Less-Than-Hidden Secrets and Final Revelations.

The authors provide a comprehensive treatment of stochastic systems from the foundations of probability to stochastic optimal control. The book covers discrete- and continuous-time stochastic dynamic systems leading to the derivation of the Kalman filter, its properties, and its relation to the frequency domain Wiener filter aswell as the dynamic programming derivation of the linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) and the linear exponential Gaussian (LEG) controllers and their relation to HÝsubscript 2¨ and HÝsubscript Ýinfinity¨¨ controllers and system robustness. This book is suitable for first-year graduate students in electrical, mechanical, chemical, and aerospace engineering specializing in systems and control. Students in computer science, economics, and possibly business will also find it useful.

Fooled by the Winners will change the way you think about the stock market, health care, global warming, diets, lotteries, restaurants, and your siblings. It will reshape your perspective of the past and give you a clearer view of the future. Fooled by the Winners is a book about survivor bias, the cognitive error of focusing on the winners, the successes, and the living. But in many instances, we can learn more from those who have lost, failed, or died. After reading this book, you will understand how survivor bias is often used to deceive us. You will learn how to stop paying for financial services that promise more than they deliver, for health care that doesn’t make us healthier, for diets that don’t make us slimmer, and for advice books that don’t offer good advice. You will also come away with a different view of our past, including our perilous evolutionary journey and how history has often been written by the winners. You will come to understand how we are fooled by the winners in warfare, such as in the deployment of nuclear weapons and the most famous example of survivor bias—the missing Allied bombers of WWII. Previous studies of survivor bias have been inaccessible to most, housed in formula-laden statistical journals. But you won’t find any math or technical jargon here. David Lockwood, a former member of the faculty of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University, applies the concept of survivor bias to specific, real-world examples—minus the equations. Through compelling analysis and the real-life stories, this book demonstrates the deceptive influence of survivor bias in our daily lives and on our thinking.

Featuring a practical approach with numerous examples, this book focuses on helping the reader develop a conceptual, rather than technical, understanding of categorical methods, making it a much more accessible text than others on the market. The authors cover common categorical analyses and emphasize specific research questions that can be addressed by each analytic procedure so that readers are able to address the research questions they wish to answer. To achieve this goal, the authors: Review the theoretical implications and assumptions underlying each of the procedures Present each concept in general terms and illustrate each with a practical example Demonstrate the analyses using SPSS and SAS and show the interpretation of the results provided by these programs. A "Look Ahead" section at the beginning of each chapter provides an overview of the material covered so that the reader knows what to expect. This is followed by one or more research questions that can be addressed using the procedure(s) covered in the chapter. A theoretical presentation of the material is provided and illustrated using realistic examples from the behavioral and social sciences. To further enhance accessibility, the new procedures introduced in the book are explicitly related to analytic procedures covered in earlier statistics courses, such as ANOVA and linear regression. Throughout each chapter the authors use practical examples to demonstrate how to obtain and interpret statistical output in both SPSS and SAS. Their emphasis on the relationship between the initial research question, the use of the software to carry out the analysis, and the interpretation of the output as it relates to the initial research question, allows readers to easily apply the material to their own research. The data sets for executing chapter examples using SAS Version 9.1.3 and/or IBM SPSS Version 18 are available on a book specific web site. These data sets and syntax allow readers to quickly run the programs and obtain the appropriate output. The book also includes both conceptual and analytic end-of-chapter exercises to assist instructors and students in evaluating the understanding of the material covered in each chapter. This book covers the most commonly used categorical data analysis procedures. It is written for those without an extensive mathematical background, and is ideal for graduate courses in categorical data analysis or cross-classified data analysis taught in departments of psychology, human development & family studies, sociology, education, and business. Researchers in these disciplines interested in applying these procedures to their own research will appreciate this book’s accessible approach.

This unique volume returns in its second edition, revised and updated with the latest advances in problem solving research. It is designed to provide readers with skills that will make them better problem solvers and to give up-to-date information about the psychology of problem solving. Professor Hayes provides students and professionals with practical, tested methods of defining, representing, and solving problems. Each discussion of the important aspects of human problem solving is supported by the most current research on the psychology problem solving. The Complete Problem Solver, Second Edition features: *Valuable learning strategies; *Decision making methods; *Discussions of the nature of creativity and invention, and *A new chapter on writing. The Complete Problem Solver utilizes numerous examples, diagrams, illustrations, and charts to help any reader become better at problem solving. See the order form for the answer to the problem below.

This book presents not only the mathematical concept of probability, but also its philosophical aspects, the relativity of probability and its applications and even the psychology of probability. All explanations are made in a comprehensible manner and are supported with suggestive examples from nature and daily life, and even with challenging math paradoxes. (Mathematics)