Probability is the bedrock of machine learning. You cannot develop a deep understanding and application of machine learning without it. Cut through the equations, Greek letters, and confusion, and discover the topics in probability that you need to know. Using clear explanations, standard Python libraries, and step-by-step tutorial lessons, you will discover the importance of probability to machine learning, Bayesian probability, entropy, density estimation, maximum likelihood, and much more.

Probability and Bayesian Modeling is an introduction to probability and Bayesian thinking for undergraduate students with a calculus background. The first part of the book provides a broad view of probability including foundations, conditional probability, discrete and continuous distributions, and joint distributions. Statistical inference is presented completely from a Bayesian perspective. The text introduces inference and prediction for a single proportion and a single mean from Normal sampling. After fundamentals of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are introduced, Bayesian inference is described for hierarchical and regression models including logistic regression. The book presents several case studies motivated by some historical Bayesian studies and the authors’ research. This text reflects modern Bayesian statistical practice. Simulation is introduced in all the probability chapters and extensively used in the Bayesian material to simulate from the posterior and predictive distributions. One chapter describes the basic tenets of Metropolis and Gibbs sampling algorithms; however several chapters introduce the fundamentals of Bayesian inference for conjugate priors to deepen understanding. Strategies for constructing prior distributions are described in situations when one has substantial prior information and for cases where one has weak prior knowledge. One chapter introduces hierarchical Bayesian modeling as a practical way of combining data from different groups. There is an extensive discussion of Bayesian regression models including the construction of informative priors, inference about functions of the parameters of interest, prediction, and model selection. The text uses JAGS (Just Another Gibbs Sampler) as a general-purpose computational method for simulating from posterior distributions for a variety of Bayesian models. An R package ProbBayes is available containing all of the book datasets and special functions for illustrating concepts from the book. A complete solutions manual is available for instructors who adopt the book in the Additional Resources section.

Formerly, for the solution of the conditional probability of a single predictand, its equivalent normal deviate (END) was obtained, under the assumption of multivariate normality, by linear regression on the END's of the predictors. For the joint probability of two predictands, the approach is to find the two corresponding END's by the same method, but in addition, to find the conditional correlation coefficient between the predictands. Such correlation has proved to be the well-known partial correlation. In a few test examples, the conditional correlation has decreased significantly from the more basic unconditional correlation. However, the conditional correlation has remained large enough to make the conditional probabilities significantly higher than the mere product of the two marginal probabilities. (Author).

Introduction to Probability, Second Edition, discusses probability theory in a mathematically rigorous, yet accessible way. This one-semester basic probability textbook explains important concepts of probability while providing useful exercises and examples of real world applications for students to consider. This edition demonstrates the applicability of probability to many human activities with examples and illustrations. After introducing fundamental probability concepts, the book proceeds to topics including conditional probability and independence; numerical characteristics of a random variable; special distributions; joint probability density function of two random variables and related quantities; joint moment generating function, covariance and correlation coefficient of two random variables; transformation of random variables; the Weak Law of Large Numbers; the Central Limit Theorem; and statistical inference. Each section provides relevant proofs, followed by exercises and useful hints. Answers to even-numbered exercises are given and detailed answers to all exercises are available to instructors on the book companion site. This book will be of interest to upper level undergraduate students and graduate level students in statistics, mathematics, engineering, computer science, operations research, actuarial science, biological sciences, economics, physics, and some of the social sciences. - Demonstrates the applicability of probability to many human activities with examples and illustrations - Discusses probability theory in a mathematically rigorous, yet accessible way - Each section provides relevant proofs, and is followed by exercises and useful hints - Answers to even-numbered exercises are provided and detailed answers to all exercises are available to instructors on the book companion site

An intuitive, yet precise introduction to probability theory, stochastic processes, statistical inference, and probabilistic models used in science, engineering, economics, and related fields. This is the currently used textbook for an introductory probability course at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, attended by a large number of undergraduate and graduate students, and for a leading online class on the subject. The book covers the fundamentals of probability theory (probabilistic models, discrete and continuous random variables, multiple random variables, and limit theorems), which are typically part of a first course on the subject. It also contains a number of more advanced topics, including transforms, sums of random variables, a fairly detailed introduction to Bernoulli, Poisson, and Markov processes, Bayesian inference, and an introduction to classical statistics. The book strikes a balance between simplicity in exposition and sophistication in analytical reasoning. Some of the more mathematically rigorous analysis is explained intuitively in the main text, and then developed in detail (at the level of advanced calculus) in the numerous solved theoretical problems.

The book is a collection of 80 short and self-contained lectures covering most of the topics that are usually taught in intermediate courses in probability theory and mathematical statistics. There are hundreds of examples, solved exercises and detailed derivations of important results. The step-by-step approach makes the book easy to understand and ideal for self-study. One of the main aims of the book is to be a time saver: it contains several results and proofs, especially on probability distributions, that are hard to find in standard references and are scattered here and there in more specialistic books. The topics covered by the book are as follows. PART 1 - MATHEMATICAL TOOLS: set theory, permutations, combinations, partitions, sequences and limits, review of differentiation and integration rules, the Gamma and Beta functions. PART 2 - FUNDAMENTALS OF PROBABILITY: events, probability, independence, conditional probability, Bayes' rule, random variables and random vectors, expected value, variance, covariance, correlation, covariance matrix, conditional distributions and conditional expectation, independent variables, indicator functions. PART 3 - ADDITIONAL TOPICS IN PROBABILITY THEORY: probabilistic inequalities, construction of probability distributions, transformations of probability distributions, moments and cross-moments, moment generating functions, characteristic functions. PART 4 - PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS: Bernoulli, binomial, Poisson, uniform, exponential, normal, Chi-square, Gamma, Student's t, F, multinomial, multivariate normal, multivariate Student's t, Wishart. PART 5 - MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION: linear combinations, quadratic forms, partitions. PART 6 - ASYMPTOTIC THEORY: sequences of random vectors and random variables, pointwise convergence, almost sure convergence, convergence in probability, mean-square convergence, convergence in distribution, relations between modes of convergence, Laws of Large Numbers, Central Limit Theorems, Continuous Mapping Theorem, Slutsky's Theorem. PART 7 - FUNDAMENTALS OF STATISTICS: statistical inference, point estimation, set estimation, hypothesis testing, statistical inferences about the mean, statistical inferences about the variance.