We compared the predictive performance of a series of machine learning and traditional methods for monthly CDS spreads, using firms’ accounting-based, market-based and macroeconomics variables for a time period of 2006 to 2016. We find that ensemble machine learning methods (Bagging, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest) strongly outperform other estimators, and Bagging particularly stands out in terms of accuracy. Traditional credit risk models using OLS techniques have the lowest out-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results suggest that the non-linear machine learning methods, especially the ensemble methods, add considerable value to existent credit risk prediction accuracy and enable CDS shadow pricing for companies missing those securities.

We compared the predictive performance of a series of machine learning and traditional methods for monthly CDS spreads, using firms’ accounting-based, market-based and macroeconomics variables for a time period of 2006 to 2016. We find that ensemble machine learning methods (Bagging, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest) strongly outperform other estimators, and Bagging particularly stands out in terms of accuracy. Traditional credit risk models using OLS techniques have the lowest out-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results suggest that the non-linear machine learning methods, especially the ensemble methods, add considerable value to existent credit risk prediction accuracy and enable CDS shadow pricing for companies missing those securities.

Popular Mechanics inspires, instructs and influences readers to help them master the modern world. Whether it’s practical DIY home-improvement tips, gadgets and digital technology, information on the newest cars or the latest breakthroughs in science -- PM is the ultimate guide to our high-tech lifestyle.

The Global Financial Stability Report examines current risks facing the global financial system and policy actions that may mitigate these. It analyzes the key challenges facing financial and nonfinancial firms as they continue to repair their balance sheets. Chapter 2 takes a closer look at whether sovereign credit default swaps markets are good indicators of sovereign credit risk. Chapter 3 examines unconventional monetary policy in some depth, including the policies pursued by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The leading experts in system change and learning, with their school-based partners around the world, have created this essential companion to their runaway best-seller, Deep Learning: Engage the World Change the World. This hands-on guide provides a roadmap for building capacity in teachers, schools, districts, and systems to design deep learning, measure progress, and assess conditions needed to activate and sustain innovation. Dive Into Deep Learning: Tools for Engagement is rich with resources educators need to construct and drive meaningful deep learning experiences in order to develop the kind of mindset and know-how that is crucial to becoming a problem-solving change agent in our global society. Designed in full color, this easy-to-use guide is loaded with tools, tips, protocols, and real-world examples. It includes: • A framework for deep learning that provides a pathway to develop the six global competencies needed to flourish in a complex world — character, citizenship, collaboration, communication, creativity, and critical thinking. • Learning progressions to help educators analyze student work and measure progress. • Learning design rubrics, templates and examples for incorporating the four elements of learning design: learning partnerships, pedagogical practices, learning environments, and leveraging digital. • Conditions rubrics, teacher self-assessment tools, and planning guides to help educators build, mobilize, and sustain deep learning in schools and districts. Learn about, improve, and expand your world of learning. Put the joy back into learning for students and adults alike. Dive into deep learning to create learning experiences that give purpose, unleash student potential, and transform not only learning, but life itself.

The April 2012 Global Financial Stability Report assesses changes in risks to financial stability over the past six months, focusing on sovereign vulnerabilities, risks stemming from private sector deleveraging, and assessing the continued resilience of emerging markets. The report probes the implications of recent reforms in the financial system for market perception of safe assets, and investigates the growing public and private costs of increased longevity risk from aging populations.

The Advocate is a lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender (LGBT) monthly newsmagazine. Established in 1967, it is the oldest continuing LGBT publication in the United States.