This study analyses the effect of competition on retail fuel prices in a small EU country with high market concentration. The researchers use a panel data set to estimate a fuel price equation that includes supply and demand factors as well as time fixed effects. The study finds that more competitors in the local market decrease prices, whereas high market share of oligopoly brands does not condition this effect. Additionally, independent brands set lower prices than wholesalers, and gas stations located near borders of almost all neighboring countries are associated with higher prices. The study suggests that regulation restricting the entry of oligopoly suppliers may not decrease prices and can even be associated with price increases in the absence of strong market players in the retail fuel market. It also indicates that policy should encourage fiercer competition in the local market by increasing the density of gas stations, especially from independent brands. The lack of significant impact of oligopoly brands on retail fuel prices in this country is due to heightened competitive pressures in the market, which prevent oligopoly brands from exerting their market power significantly. These findings may be associated with specific country characteristics.

This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.