In this broad review of commercial space capabilities that could support the U.S. Space Force's future space architecture and innovation ecosystem, the authors characterize capabilities and trends through mid-2020 in seven commercial space sectors.

The expanding global commercial space industry offers new opportunities--such as technological advances in small satellites, lower launch costs, and innovative satellite applications--that could help the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) meet its mission requirements more efficiently and give it access to a broader innovation pool. The Department of the Air Force (DAF), particularly the U.S. Space Force (USSF), is increasing its partnership activities with the commercial space industry to take advantage of these opportunities. As the DAF makes investment decisions to leverage commercial space capabilities, it needs a better understanding of opportunities, risks, and challenges it might encounter. To help the DAF evaluate these potential benefits and risks, RAND researchers examined two space-related markets that together represent the widest variation in market and firm maturity: the commercial space-based positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) market (an emerging market) and the commercial satellite communications (SATCOM) market (an established market). This variation between the two markets is useful for identifying distinct and cross-cutting themes that could be generalized to other commercial space markets not analyzed in this research. In this report, the researchers describe their analysis and provide findings and recommendations for the DAF.

Since the advent of the space age, a primary constraint on military, commercial, and civil space missions has been the cost of launch. Launching objects into space requires substantial investments in launch systems and infrastructure, which has restricted the market to only a handful of national governments and several large private companies. This study explores the possibility of a space industry significantly less constrained by the cost of access to space.

Commercial space capabilities are expanding. As they expand, the capabilities will increase in their military utility. These capabilities include communications, remote sensing, navigation, and imagery. Spending in the commercial space industry between 1995 and 2010 will top $100 billion. With the rise in commercially available services and declining defense budgets, the DoD will inevitably migrate traditionally dedicated space capabilities to commercial systems (communications, remote sensing, and possibly navigation). Since their ultimate goal is profitability (and rightfully so), industry considers countermeasures costly and unnecessary against threats they deem not likely. With our economic well-being increasingly tied to space, what role should the US Government play in assuring our access? In the days of pirates, naval forces were essential to protect trade routes for friendly commerce. Naval theorists, such as Alfred Thayer Mahan, and maritime law provide thought-provoking analogies for the need to protect lines of communication, control the medium, and protecting national sovereignty. In addition, future projections of the strategic environment point to force-on-force space confrontation with peer competitors and asymmetric attack by niche competitors, hostile groups, and individuals. Therefore, protection of commercial space assets must be rooted in space law, space policy and doctrine with consideration for the aforementioned future strategic environment. Key questions will address the impact on U.S. national security due to attacks on commercial space assets. What is the real impact of commercial space on the U.S. economy (not just spending)? How would loss of commercial space capabilities impact U.S. war fighting capability? What constitutes an attack on a commercial space system? How do we deter and detect an attack? How should the U.S. respond to such attacks? Finally, what policy and process changes are needed to protect our national security?

This book analyzes the commercial space activities and commercialization processes of the last fifteen years and maps the future challenges that NewSpace companies will face developing commercial space markets. What is new and what has happened in these markets up till now? Is there a business case for private companies for commercial space? What are the targeted commercial space markets? Who are the future customers for commercial space transportation markets? How can NewSpace companies attract investors? Can we learn lessons from traditional space industries or other companies in other areas? In what way have the last fifteen years made a difference in the evolution of space markets? Is there a future for in-situ resource mining, space debris services, in-orbit satellite servicing and sub-orbital transportation? What are the lessons learned from ISS commercialization? In addition the reader will find a synopsis of several space transportation programs, commercial space markets, future Moon and Mars missions, in-situ resource exploitation concepts, space debris mitigation projects and sub-orbital commercial markets. Major lessons learned are identified, related to the attraction of first time customers and long term R&D funding, managing technological and market risks and developing new markets and applications.