Climate change and recurrent climate events are making water-scarce countries like Tunisia and its agricultural lands drier and more vulnerable to drought. These recurrent climate events are also known as teleconnections and include natural climatic events such as the El Nino Southern oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), and the Mediterranean oscillation (MO). These climate phenomena contribute to droughts, which negatively affect key rain-fed crops, suchas wheat and barley, and livestock. As a result, farmers are becoming more vulnerable as climate change and teleconnections make temperatures rise and rainfall become more sporadic. Agriculture is important for rural communities and the overall Tunisian economy. Twenty percent of the population is employed in agriculture, which accounts for 10 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) and 10 to 12 percent of total exports, on average. Wheat and other rainfedcrops are critical to food security and livestock survival and are the crops most affected by climate variability. Climate change's adverse impacts on agriculture are a contingent liability for the Tunisian economy, including for the country's GDP, trade balance, and balance of payments. As agricultural and agro-industrial outputs fall, food and fodder imports must rise to meet domestic demand. Therefore, this report suggests additional action on implementing integrated drought management (IDM) on top of what the government is already doing. Food and agriculture value chains are affected by climate events. This report includes detailed analyses of two key value chains, namely wheat and dairy. The analyses were done in representative lagging regions, including Jendouba for the dairy value chain and Siliana and Beja for the wheat value chain. Currently, wheat and dairy are the main subsectors in the lagging regions, and in the short term, strengthening these subsectors will increase jobs, incomes, and food security. This study finds that the El Nino Southern oscillation (ENSO) was a less important contributor to the 2015-16 drought in Tunisia than other teleconnections. ENSO drought impacts are more pronounced in other parts of the world than in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. This report also examines wheat and dairy agriculture to determine how well they are adapting to climate change and climate variability. Current adaptation pathways to increase agricultural incomes and productivityfocus on increasing tree crops, which generally are more resilient to drought than field crops. Still, improving water management is also an essential part of this adaptation plan.

Droughts in Morocco are increasing in frequency and intensity. Associated with global climate change, this trend will likely be more evident in the future. Drought damage to the agricultural sector affects both rural livelihoods and the national economy as a whole. This report examinesdrought and climate variability impacts on agricultural and livestock activities in Morocco. It relies on original research on the citrus and olive value chains, which are both priorities in the government's current agricultural strategy, known as the "Green Plan" or Plan Maroc Vert (PMV). The report also considers drought impacts on cereal production, traces the government's efforts to address drought, and suggests actions to strength these efforts. Long-term climate change is making Morocco, which already faces rural water scarcity, more vulnerable to extreme weather events. Recurrent atmospheric climate events, known as teleconnections, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), may further exacerbate this situation. This study finds that ENSO had limited impacts on the 2015-2016 droughts in Morocco, but other teleconnections, specifically the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO), had greater impacts. Increased climate variability leads to stronger droughts, which adversely affect livestock andrainfed crops. Moreover, Morocco's average temperatures are rising and rainfall is becoming more sporadic, both affecting certain parts of the country more than others. Agriculture and agribusiness activities generate over 30 percent of employment in Morocco. The agricultural sector also produces 20 percent of GDP and 35 percent of exports. Rainfed crops, like wheat, are critical for domestic food security and livestock survival, but are also most affected by climatevariability. As such, increasing droughts represent a "contingent liability" for the Moroccan economy. This impacts Morocco's trade balance as agricultural exports fall and food and fodder imports rise to meet increased domestic demand. This report suggests further drought management actions. Currently, the government is carrying out important monitoring and crop insurance programs, but more can be done to share information and strengthen inter-governmental and interagency coordination, especially with governments at the river basin level.

Tunisia in a Changing Climate: Assessment and Actions for Increased Resilience and Development is part of the World Bank Studies series. These papers are published to communicate the results of the Bank's ongoing research and to stimulate public discussion. This book provides an assessment of climate risks, as well as opportunities and possible actions for addressing climate change, in Tunisia. It recognizes that the Tunisian revolution of January 14th, 2011, created significant change in the country, resulting in new challenges and opportunities for addressing further change. Following the revolution, improvements in access to information, institutional capacity, and accountability have enhanced the governance and transparency that are essential for effective climate change responses. However, political uncertainty has affected both foreign direct investment and tourism, which have further impacted already high rates of poverty and unemployment.

The second volume of this comprehensive global perspective on Integrated Drought Management is focused on drought modeling, meteorological prediction, and the use of remote sensing in assessing, analyzing, and monitoring drought. It discusses risk management, planning, policy, and societal impacts of drought such as water pricing, water transfer, water quality, and crop insurance. Through numerous case studies from India, Iran, Brazil, the US, Nepal, and other countries that cover a broad range of topics and geographical regions, this volume serves as a valuable resource for all professionals, researchers, and academics who want to advance their knowledge about droughts. Features Provides a global perspective on drought prediction and management and a synthesis of the recent state of knowledge. Covers a wide range of topics from essential concepts and advanced techniques for forecasting and modeling drought to societal impacts, consequences, and planning Presents numerous case studies with different management approaches from different regions and countries. Addresses how climate change impacts drought, the increasing challenges associated with managing drought, decision-making, and policy implications. Includes contributions from hundreds of experts from around the world. Professionals, researchers, academics, and postgraduate students with knowledge in environmental sciences, ecology, agriculture, forestry, hydrology, water resources engineering, and earth sciences, as well as those interested in how climate change impacts drought management, will gain new insights from the experts featured in this two-volume handbook.

The first volume of this comprehensive global perspective on Integrated Drought Management is focused on understanding drought, causes, and the assessment of drought impacts. It explains different types of drought: agricultural, meteorological, hydrological, and socio-economic droughts, their indices and the impact of climate change on drought. The volume also examines spatio-temporal analysis of drought, variability and patterns, assessment, and drought evaluation. With numerous case studies from India, Mexico, Turkey, Brazil, US, and other countries, this volume serves as a valuable resource for all readers who want to advance their knowledge on drought and risk management. Features 1. Provides a global perspective on drought prediction and management and a synthesis of the recent state of knowledge. 2. Covers a wide range of topics from essential concepts and advanced techniques for forecasting and modeling drought to societal impacts, consequences, and planning 3. Presents numerous case studies with different management approaches from different regions and countries. 4. Addresses how climate change impacts drought, the increasing challenges associated with managing drought, decision making, and policy implications. 5. Includes contributions from hundreds of experts around the world. Professionals, researchers, academics, and postgraduate students with knowledge in Environmental Sciences, Ecology, Agriculture, Forestry, Hydrology, Water Resources Engineering, and Earth Sciences, as well as those interested in how climate change impacts drought management, will gain new insights from the experts featured in this two-volume handbook.

The first volume of this comprehensive global perspective on Integrated Drought Management is focused on understanding drought, causes, and the assessment of drought impacts. It explains different types of drought: agricultural, meteorological, hydrological, and socioeconomic droughts, their indices and the impact of climate change on drought. The volume also examines spatiotemporal analysis of drought, variability and patterns, assessment, and drought evaluation. With numerous case studies from India, Mexico, Turkey, Brazil, US, and other countries, this volume serves as a valuable resource for all readers who want to advance their knowledge on drought and risk management. Features: Provides a global perspective on drought prediction and management and a synthesis of the recent state of knowledge. Covers a wide range of topics from essential concepts and advanced techniques for forecasting and modeling drought to societal impacts, consequences, and planning. Presents numerous case studies with different management approaches from different regions and countries. Addresses how climate change impacts drought, the increasing challenges associated with managing drought, decision making, and policy implications. Includes contributions from hundreds of experts around the world. Professionals, researchers, academics, and postgraduate students with knowledge in environmental sciences, ecology, agriculture, forestry, hydrology, water resources engineering, and earth sciences, as well as those interested in how climate change impacts drought management, will gain new insights from the experts featured in this two-volume handbook.