This volume, comprised of papers originally presented at a conference held at Carlisle Barracks in September 2001, helps to put the Hainan Island incident in the broader context of China's strategic aspirations and its growing military capabilities. This conference's co-sponsors were the American Enterprise Institute, the Heritage Foundation, and the U.S. Army War College. For the fourth consecutive year, the War College's Strategic Studies Institute is publishing the proceedings. The nine chapters in this volume, all written by leading experts, cover a diverse set of important topics: East Asian perspectives on China's security ambitions, the status of the Chinese ballistic missile program and regional reactions to U.S. missile defense initiatives, and China's ever-improving conventional military capabilities.

The tenor of U.S.-China relations for much of the first year of the administration of President George W. Bush was set by a crisis that need not have occurred. How the situation was handled and eventually resolved is instructive. It tells us about a beleaguered communist leadership in the buildup to major generational transition (scheduled for late 2002 and early 2003) and the mettle of a democratically elected U.S. government tested early in its tenure by a series of foreign policy crises and a carefully coordinated set of devastating terrorist strikes against the continental United States. The way the April 2001 crisis on Hainan Island was resolved must be chalked up as a success for the United States. the key was Washington's ability to convince Beijing that holding the air crew was hurting, and not advancing, Chinese interests. That is something Beijing seems not to have grasped when, without warning, the EP-3 suddenly swept down onto the runway in Haikou, bringing a treasure trove of super secret electronics and 24 Americans, who looked at first to be valuable bargaining chips. With the plane and the crew, China seemed to hold the best cards and behaved accordingly. the top leaders who Ambassador Joseph Prueher had tried to cultivate did not return his calls, and Chinese President Jiang Zemin, after demanding an apology from Washington, left for a Latin American tour. Let the Americans stew in this for awhile, Jiang's message seemed to be. But Washington managed to reduce the value of those bargaining chips. This was done, first, by making clear that no substantive concessions would be made to secure their release; and, second, by persuading Beijing that continuing to hold the Americans would bring real damage to Chinese interests. As indignation mounted in the United States, economic dangers began to loom on China's horizon. The Beijing government, after all, counts on a rising standard of living to limit dissent, and even a brief loss of access to the American market could be damaging. Nor did Asian neighbors rally to support China. They worry, mostly in private, about Beijing's growing military strength and assertiveness. The State Department boycotted Chinese embassy functions and Secretary of State Colin Powell, while offering regrets and condolences-even eventually sorrow over the loss of the Chinese pilot-showed no inclination to consider the apology China demanded. The most sensitive nerve in Beijing, however, may have been the Olympics. Having the games in their capital is a cherished Chinese aspiration, and when members of Congress began organizing against it as the crisis developed, the Chinese embassy took the unusual step of sending rather snippy letters to the offenders. Only releasing the hostages could possibly remove the very real threat, and even then not with certainty. Hence Beijing's decision to send the crew home, which, once made, began the search for a linguistic formula to explain it. Washington had not, in fact, apologized, but we could not prevent Beijing from pulling some of what we had said out of context and presenting it through state-controlled media as being, in fact, the apology China's leaders sought. That, plus the usual "humanitarian considerations," provided sufficient cover to end the crisis.

The tenor of U.S.-China relations for much of the first year of the administration of President George W. Bush was set by a crisis that need not have occurred. How the situation was handled and eventually resolved is instructive. It tells us about a beleaguered communist leadership in the buildup to major generational transition (scheduled for late 2002 and early 2003) and the mettle of a democratically elected U.S. government tested early in its tenure by a series of foreign policy crises and a carefully coordinated set of devastating terrorist strikes against the continental United States. The way the April 2001 crisis on Hainan Island was resolved must be chalked up as a success for the United States. the key was Washington's ability to convince Beijing that holding the air crew was hurting, and not advancing, Chinese interests.

The tenor of U.S.-China relations for much of the first year of the administration of President George Bush. Bush was set by a crisis that need not have occurred. How the situation was handed and eventually resolved is instructive. It tells us about beleaguered communist leadership in the buildup to major generational transition (scheduled for late 2002 and early 2003) and the mettle of a democratically elected U.S. government tested early in its tenure by a series of foreign policy crisis and a carefully coordinated set of devastating terrorist strikes against the continental United States.

"This volume brings together an international group of distinguished scholars to provide a fresh assessment of China's strategic military capabilities, doctrines, and perceptions in light of rapidly advancing technologies, an expanding and modernizing nuclear arsenal, and increased great-power competition with the United States. China's strategic weapons are its expanding nuclear arsenal and emerging conventional weapons systems such as hypersonic missiles and anti-satellite missiles. China's strategic arsenal is important because of how it affects the dynamics of US-China relations and the relationship between China and its neighbors. Without a doubt China's strategic arsenal is growing in size and sophistication, but this book also examines key uncertainties. Will China's new capabilities and confidence lead it to be more assertive or take more risks? Will China's nuclear traditions (i.e., no first use) change as the strategic balance improves? Will China's approach to military competition in the domains of cyberspace and outer space be guided by a notion of strategic stability or not? Will there be a strategic arms race with the United States? The goal of this book is to update our understanding of these issues and to make predictions about how these dynamics may play out"--