We examine the cross-sectional relation between the ratio of log growth in physical capital to log growth in labor and subsequent stock returns. The ratio is a negative predictor of abnormal returns and the relation strengthens with measures of financing constraint while remaining robust to previously provided determinants of returns. A ratio-based 2-factor model outperforms common asset pricing models explaining various anomalies indicating that anomalies reflect cross-sectional variation in growth ratio. We interpret the findings as outcomes reflecting displacements on the production isoquant, and show the pattern in returns is consistent with an investment-based model in which firms face financing constraints.

We examine the cross-sectional relation between log growth in physical capital to log growth in labor and subsequent stock returns. The ratio is a strong predictor of negative future abnormal returns. This relation strengthens with measures of financing constraint while remaining robust to previously provided determinants of returns. A ratio-based 2-factor model outperforms common models explaining various asset pricing anomalies, indicating that anomalies reflect cross-sectional variation in this ratio. We interpret the findings as outcomes reflecting displacements on the production isoquant, and show an investment-based asset pricing model with financing constraint generates the aforementioned pattern in returns.

Labor productivity, measured as the industry-standardized ratio of sales to number of employees, has an ability to predict average stock returns. In the portfolio sort, firms with high labor productivity earn higher expected returns than those with low productivity. The difference in returns is unexplained by the risk-adjusted asset pricing models. In the cross-section, labor productivity remains as a significant predictor of stock returns after adjusting for size, book-to-market, momentum, asset growth, and profitability.

This paper shows that the impact of labor income risk on the cross-section of expected stock returns depends crucially on the horizon. Using a flexible empirical approach that allows us to include multiple horizons simultaneously, we find robust evidence that the two- to four-year horizon strongly dominates. Labor income risk at this medium term horizon carries a highly significant price of risk, while at other horizons it does not. A simple two-factor model that includes the equity market return and labor income risk at the medium term horizon can explain a striking 71% of the cross-sectional variation of 25 size book-to-market and 25 size-investment portfolios. This is a significant improvement over the standard human capital CAPM with quarterly labor income growth that has an R-squared of only 7%. Also, labor income risk generates significant adjustments to the composition of the optimal risky equity portfolio at the medium term horizon. These results are consistent with wage stickiness, where wages are reset every two to four years.

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Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.