This book explores new fiscal rules introduced in OECD countries and the relevance of fiscal rules for the unique fiscal policies and institutions in the United States. The rules in different countries are compared, with a more in depth analysis of two countries with arguably the most successful fiscal rules—Switzerland and Sweden. The study compares the challenge of fiscal consolidation facing the U.S. with that in other OECD countries. The centerpiece of the study is analysis of fiscal rules using a dynamic simulation model. A Swiss style fiscal rule is compared to an alternative fiscal rule proposed by Representative Amash, H.J.Res 24.The authors propose a new fiscal rule designed for the unique fiscal institutions in the U.S. Dynamic scoring is used to measure the impact of different fiscal rules on the federal budget, economic growth, and revenue. The effectiveness of the different fiscal rules is analyzed with respect to several criteria. A major objective of the rules is fiscal stabilization in the long run to bring debt/GDP ratios below tolerance levels. The fiscal rules are also designed for budget stabilization in the medium term, such that deficits in periods of recession are offset by surplus revenue in periods of economic expansion. The concluding section of the study explores the political economy of enacting new fiscal rules in the U.S. The study proposes fundamental changes in budget process required for the proposed fiscal rule to be effective. The study concludes with a discussion of alternative routes to enacting new fiscal rules, and the prospects for new fiscal rules to be enacted in the U.S.

An insightful and original look at why understanding macroeconomics is essential for all investors

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

This book presents a radically different argument for what has caused, and likely will continue to cause, the collapse of emerging market economies. Pettis combines the insights of economic history, economic theory, and finance theory into a comprehensive model for understanding sovereign liability management and the causes of financial crises. He examines recent financial crises in emerging market countries along with the history of international lending since the 1820s to argue that the process of international lending is driven primarily by external events and not by local politics and/or economic policies. He draws out the corporate finance implications of this approach to argue that most of the current analyses of the recent financial crises suffered by Latin America, Asia, and Russia have largely missed the point. He then develops a sovereign finance model, analogous to corporate finance, to understand the capital structure needs of emerging market countries. Using this model, he finally puts into perspective the recent crises, a new sovereign liability management theory, the implications of the model for sovereign debt restructurings, and the new financial architecture. Bridging the gap between finance specialists and traders, on the one hand, and economists and policy-makers on the other, The Volatility Machine is critical reading for anyone interested in where the international economy is going over the next several years.

This paper investigates the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in OECD economies. We examine the historical record, including Budget Speeches and IMFdocuments, to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Using this new dataset, our estimates suggest fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on private domestic demand and GDP. By contrast, estimates based on conventional measures of the fiscal policy stance used in the literature support the expansionary fiscal contractions hypothesis but appear to be biased toward overstating expansionary effects.

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High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring. But debt is also reduced through financial repression, a tax on bondholders and savers via negative or belowmarket real interest rates. After WWII, capital controls and regulatory restrictions created a captive audience for government debt, limiting tax-base erosion. Financial repression is most successful in liquidating debt when accompanied by inflation. For the advanced economies, real interest rates were negative 1⁄2 of the time during 1945–1980. Average annual interest expense savings for a 12—country sample range from about 1 to 5 percent of GDP for the full 1945–1980 period. We suggest that, once again, financial repression may be part of the toolkit deployed to cope with the most recent surge in public debt in advanced economies.