Introduces a powerful new approach to financial risk modeling with proven strategies for its real-world applications The 2008 credit crisis did much to debunk the much touted powers of Value at Risk (VaR) as a risk metric. Unlike most authors on VaR who focus on what it can do, in this book the author looks at what it cannot. In clear, accessible prose, finance practitioners, Max Wong, describes the VaR measure and what it was meant to do, then explores its various failures in the real world of crisis risk management. More importantly, he lays out a revolutionary new method of measuring risks, Bubble Value at Risk, that is countercyclical and offers a well-tested buffer against market crashes. Describes Bubble VaR, a more macro-prudential risk measure proven to avoid the limitations of VaR and by providing a more accurate risk exposure estimation over market cycles Makes a strong case that analysts and risk managers need to unlearn our existing "science" of risk measurement and discover more robust approaches to calculating risk capital Illustrates every key concept or formula with an abundance of practical, numerical examples, most of them provided in interactive Excel spreadsheets Features numerous real-world applications, throughout, based on the author’s firsthand experience as a veteran financial risk analyst

The value-at-risk measurement methodology is a widely-used tool in financial market risk management. The fifth edition of Professor Moorad Choudhry’s benchmark reference text An Introduction to Value-at-Risk offers an accessible and reader-friendly look at the concept of VaR and its different estimation methods, and is aimed specifically at newcomers to the market or those unfamiliar with modern risk management practices. The author capitalises on his experience in the financial markets to present this concise yet in-depth coverage of VaR, set in the context of risk management as a whole. Topics covered include: Defining value-at-risk Variance-covariance methodology Portfolio VaR Credit risk and credit VaR Stressed VaR Critique and VaR during crisis Topics are illustrated with Bloomberg screens, worked examples and exercises. Related issues such as statistics, volatility and correlation are also introduced as necessary background for students and practitioners. This is essential reading for all those who require an introduction to financial market risk management and risk measurement techniques. Foreword by Carol Alexander, Professor of Finance, University of Sussex.

Why do stock and housing markets sometimes experience amazing booms followed by massive busts and why is this happening more and more frequently? In order to answer these questions, William Quinn and John D. Turner take us on a riveting ride through the history of financial bubbles, visiting, among other places, Paris and London in 1720, Latin America in the 1820s, Melbourne in the 1880s, New York in the 1920s, Tokyo in the 1980s, Silicon Valley in the 1990s and Shanghai in the 2000s. As they do so, they help us understand why bubbles happen, and why some have catastrophic economic, social and political consequences whilst others have actually benefited society. They reveal that bubbles start when investors and speculators react to new technology or political initiatives, showing that our ability to predict future bubbles will ultimately come down to being able to predict these sparks.

A simple guide to a smarter strategy for the individual investor A Wealth of Common Sense sheds a refreshing light on investing, and shows you how a simplicity-based framework can lead to better investment decisions. The financial market is a complex system, but that doesn't mean it requires a complex strategy; in fact, this false premise is the driving force behind many investors' market "mistakes." Information is important, but understanding and perspective are the keys to better decision-making. This book describes the proper way to view the markets and your portfolio, and show you the simple strategies that make investing more profitable, less confusing, and less time-consuming. Without the burden of short-term performance benchmarks, individual investors have the advantage of focusing on the long view, and the freedom to construct the kind of portfolio that will serve their investment goals best. This book proves how complex strategies essentially waste these advantages, and provides an alternative game plan for those ready to simplify. Complexity is often used as a mechanism for talking investors into unnecessary purchases, when all most need is a deeper understanding of conventional options. This book explains which issues you actually should pay attention to, and which ones are simply used for an illusion of intelligence and control. Keep up with—or beat—professional money managers Exploit stock market volatility to your utmost advantage Learn where advisors and consultants fit into smart strategy Build a portfolio that makes sense for your particular situation You don't have to outsmart the market if you can simply outperform it. Cut through the confusion and noise and focus on what actually matters. A Wealth of Common Sense clears the air, and gives you the insight you need to become a smarter, more successful investor.

As long as there have been financial markets, there have been bubbles—those moments in which asset prices inflate far beyond their intrinsic value, often with ruinous results. Yet economists are slow to agree on the underlying forces behind these events. In this book José A. Scheinkman offers new insight into the mystery of bubbles. Noting some general characteristics of bubbles—such as the rise in trading volume and the coincidence between increases in supply and bubble implosions—Scheinkman offers a model, based on differences in beliefs among investors, that explains these observations. Other top economists also offer their own thoughts on the issue: Sanford J. Grossman and Patrick Bolton expand on Scheinkman's discussion by looking at factors that contribute to bubbles—such as excessive leverage, overconfidence, mania, and panic in speculative markets—and Kenneth J. Arrow and Joseph E. Stiglitz contextualize Scheinkman's findings.

A study of asset price bubbles and the implications for preventing financial instability.

Most risk management books introduce Value at Risk (VaR) by focusing on what it can do and its statistical measurements. The credit crisis in 2008 was a tidal wave that debunked this well-established risk metric. In this book, the author introduces VaR by looking at its failures instead and explores possible alternatives for effective crisis risk management, including a new method of measuring risks called bubble value at risk that is countercyclical and can potentially buffer against market crashes.The frequentist-statistics-based VaR is predictive during normal circumstances but often fails patently during rare crisis episodes. In reality, crisis periods span only a tiny portion of financial market history. By relying on VaR for crisis risk management, we are using a tried and tested tool for the wrong occasion-we mistake the tree for the forest. The book argues that we need to unlearn our existing "science" of risk measurement and discover more robust ways to manage risks and to calculate risk capital.The book illustrates virtually every key concept or formula with a practical, numerical example, many of which are contained in interactive Excel spreadsheets. All worked out examples/ case studies spreadsheets are downloadable from the companion website: www.bubble-value-at-risk.com