This paper explores the determinants of profitability across large euro area banks using a novel approach based on conditional profitability distributions. Real GDP growth and the NPL ratio are shown to be the most reliable determinants of bank profitability. However, the estimated conditional distributions reveal that, while higher growth would raise profits on average, a large swath of banks would most likely continue to struggle even amid a strong economic recovery. Therefore, for some banks, a determined reduction in NPLs combined with cost efficiency improvements and customized changes to their business models appears to be the most promising strategy for durably raising profitability.

Slower passthrough of policy interest rate hikes to deposit rates relative to their loan rates has led to sharply wider bank net interest margins. Combined with resilient asset quality, wider net interest margins supported record profits for European banks in 2023. Drawing on historical data from the balance sheets and income statements of over 2,500 European banks, this paper shows that abnormally high profits are expected to fade soon as interest income will decline, once policy rates start being lowered, while higher impairment costs historically have weighed on profits with a lag. Moreover, a number of structural factors that have eroded the performance of European banks in the past two decades have largely remained unaddressed and will continue being a drag on profits and capital. Therefore, policymakers should encourage banks to preserve capital buffers and build resilience to future shocks, while exercising caution when considering taxes on profits or other measures that could divert potential sources of capital from banks.

Emerging markets are increasingly facing significant challenges, from a slowdown in productivity, rising debt, and trade tensions to the adverse effects of proliferating global uncertainty on domestic financial systems. This incisive Handbook examines the ongoing dynamics of global financial markets and institutions within the context of such rising uncertainty and provides a comprehensive overview of innovative models in banking and finance.

This paper evaluates the impact of the crisis on European banks’ capital under a range of macroeconomic scenarios, using granular data on the size and riskiness of sectoral exposures. The analysis incorporates the important role of pandemic-related policy support, including not only regulatory relief for banks, but also policies to support businesses and households, which act to shield the financial sector from the real economic shock.

German bank profitability is low by international standards. Although German banks rank more favorably in risk-adjusted terms, as low profitability is partially compensated by lower volatility of returns, their profitability ratios remain low. On other measures (such as returns on assets, equity, and risk-weighted assets), German banks, on aggregate, rank among the least profitable in Europe. Several factors affect bank profitability, including a complex tiered industry structure with barriers to entry and an explicit mandate of a large part of the banking system – cooperative and savings banks – to maximize welfare of stakeholders rather than profits.

This paper examines how the growing presence of FinTech firms affects the performance of traditional financial institutions. The findings point to a negative impact on profitability, primarily due to a reduction in interest income and a rise in operational costs. Although established financial institutions have tried to diversify their revenue streams, these efforts have proven inadequate to offset the losses associated with increased competition from FinTech firms. Our study also reveals that various FinTech business models, such as Peer-to-Peer (P2P) lending and Balance Sheet lending, have varying effects on financial institutions. Cooperative banks experience more significant profit deterioration under both models, whereas (larger) commercial banks appear to benefit from partnerships with P2P platforms, as evidenced by an increase in non-interest income. Furthermore, the findings suggest that FinTech presence has a disproportionately larger adverse effect on banks in countries with more competitive, profitable, and developed financial systems. Interestingly, however, traditional financial institutions in countries with stronger regulatory frameworks appear to benefit from the expanding influence of FinTech firms.