“Boro” is the dry season irrigated rice crop planted from December to early February and harvested between April and June. In 2018/2019, the total production of rice in Bangladesh was 36,391,000 (36.4 million) metric tons (MT), of which boro rice accounted for 53.8 percent; aman rice, 38.6 percent; and aus rice, 7.6 percent. In 2019, paddy prices in Bangladesh were depressed due to a bumper harvest of the boro rice crop. Average paddy price was Tk 17.42 per kg in January 2019 after the aman harvest, but declined by 22 percent to Tk 13.56 per kg in May 2019 (DAM 2020). Farmers complained that they did not receive price support from the Government when paddy prices did not cover their production costs. In response to this situation, the USAID-funded Bangladesh Policy Research and Strategy Support Program (PRSSP) implemented by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) actively engaged in policy dialogues, and the media extensively covered IFPRI’s analysis and policy recommendations on this issue. On 20 May 2019, the IFPRI Country Representative presented policy options on how to improve farmers’ situation, as related to the low paddy price issue, during a policy seminar at the Agricultural Policy Support Unit (APSU) of the Ministry of Agriculture, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh. On 11 June 2019, the Ministry of Agriculture requested IFPRI-PRSSP to conduct a study jointly with APSU to assess the paddy price issue. IFPRI agreed to carry out the study. The objectives of this study are to (1) assess to what extent boro farmers were able to sell their paddy to the Government at the announced procurement price; (2) evaluate the efficacy of the direct paddy procurement from farmers by the Government, in order to help farmers overcome low paddy prices in the future; and (3) examine ways to improve the foodgrain procurement system. This report presents IFPRI’s study findings and identifies policy options to address the study objectives.

This report has been prepared as one of the deliverables of the Bangladesh Integrated Food Policy Research Program (BIFPRP) implemented by the Ministry of Food, Government of Bangladesh under a World Investment for Modernizing Food Storages Facilities in the country. The key arguments and recommendations drawn up for the report are based on both quantitative and qualitative data. Food and agricultural policies have historically played a crucial role in triggering growth in many developing countries. While there were debates, public procurement and distribution of food are widely accepted as a “second best” solutions for countries characterized by markets and institutional failures. However, Bangladesh has done remarkably well in adjusting to changing realities and the country is now widely recognized for its agricultural policy reforms. But there is still room for further improvement and efficiency gains for which two broad sets of recommendation can be considered: Pricing and procurement targets - Pricing in Bangladesh continues to be based on the average cost of production but with the application of satellite imageries, app-based small area estimation, the procurement price estimates can be improved substantially. Also, the current procurement target determination formula misses out on some key aspects of production, marketing, and macroeconomic parameters. The quota for each upazila is based on total production and milling capacities but it also needs to consider the net surplus to calculate how much could be procured in each Upazilas. Alternative procurement modalities a) The report recommends changing this modality to Delivered to Destination Warehouse (DDW) through the open tendering method and undertaking pilots and learning from experiences to enhance efficiency can be important. b) Linking smallholders to markets through product aggregation has received renewed attention globally. Available data suggests that Bangladesh’s public procurement has thus far not managed to effectively integrate small farmers to its procurement system. To scale up nationally, we believe that more innovation in technology and a new institutional set up will be necessary. c) Implementing Delivered Duty Paid Modality on a pilot basis where the seller assumes all responsibilities and costs for delivering the goods to the named place of destination. d) Piloting Deficiency Payment Method as an effective method to provide both income and price to farmers of a wide range of agricultural commodities. Two key instruments of implementing this method would be Marketing Assistance Loan (MAL) and the Loan Deficiency Payment (LDP), which are tools available to the farmers. A recent report by the NITI Aayog of India also makes a strong case for this procurement modality and we also argue in favor of undertaking this pilot.

Feed the Future seeks to sustainably reduce global poverty, hunger, and malnutrition by helping partner countries boost agriculture-led growth, resilience, and nutrition. Program efforts are designed to impact the population in Zones of Influence (ZOI) in Feed the Future target countries. The ZOI is the targeted sub-national regions and districts where the program intends to achieve the greatest household- and individual-level impacts on poverty, hunger, and malnutrition. Progress in achieving Feed the Future’s objectives is tracked using population-based performance indicators collected at baseline then periodically thereafter. The purpose of the Bangladesh Feed the Future Phase 2 ZOI 2018/2019 Baseline Survey, referred to as the Feed the Future Bangladesh ZOI Baseline Survey 2018/2019 throughout this report, is to provide the U.S. Government interagency partners, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Bureau for Resilience and Food Security (RFS), USAID/Bangladesh, the Government of Bangladesh, and development partners with information on the current status of the Feed the Future ZOI-level population-based survey indicators.

The Bangladesh Policy Research and Strategy Support Program (PRSSP), implemented by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), designed and conducted a telephone survey to capture the effects of COVID-19 on farmers during the first five months after the coronavirus outbreak began in Bangladesh. This report provides the survey’s findings, with particular attention to access to credit and assistance and supply chain disruptions (e.g., labor shortages, access to agricultural inputs, selling prices of outputs, etc.).

A key challenge in systematically collecting data on intermediary agri-food value chain actors is that value chains take the form of a network, with actors linked by a series of transactions. Moreover, we have limited ex ante knowledge about the structure or scale of these networks, which complicates the construction of valid sampling frames and limits traditional random sampling approaches to collect data. To address these challenges, we adapt the respondent-driven sampling approach to collect data on intermediary agri-food value chain actors within their transaction-linked network and implement this approach in the arabica coffee and soybean value chains in Uganda and the rice and potato value chains in Bangladesh. We observe meaningful heterogeneity in the structure and scale of agri-food value chains across commodities and countries. Focusing on traders, we show that the respondent-driven sampling approach generates a larger sample of traders who differ in observable characteristics (i.e., value added, enterprise scale, and financial access) compared to a sub-sample of traders generated in a way that mimics traditional random sampling approaches used to study traders. We conclude by discussing how this respondent-driven sampling approach, applied within transaction-linked networks, can provide a useful data collection method for studying intermediary agri-food value chain actors.

The recent escalation of world food prices – particularly for cereals - prompted mass public indignation and demonstrations in many countries, from the price of tortilla flour in Mexico to that of rice in the Philippines and pasta in Italy. The crisis has important implications for future government trade and food security policies, as countries re-evaluate their reliance on potentially more volatile world markets to augment domestic supplies of staple foods. This book examines how government policies caused and responded to soaring world prices in the particular case of rice, which is the world's most important source of calories for the poor. Comparable case studies of policy reactions in different countries, principally across Asia, but also including the USA, provide the understanding necessary to evaluate the impact of trade policy on the food security of poor farmers and consumers. They also provide important insights into the concerns of developing countries that are relevant for future international trade negotiations in key agricultural commodities. As a result, more appropriate policies can be put in place to ensure more stable food supplies in the future. Published with the Food and Agriculture (FAO) Organization of the United Nations

The prospects for continuous growth in rice yields have been examined within the context of a simulation model where demand parameters for both rural and urban populations and for different income groups have been used. Coupled with available estimates of supply response parameters, the prospects for a rice surplus in year 2000 appear moderate. On average, only 157,000 metric tons of rice surplus would result if current prices were to prevail. If prices were allowed to adjust, only a negligible price decline would result. That is also the case in the more favorable scenario of high growt of rice yields. Domestic demand would be capable of absorbing the increased rice surplus without an appreciable decline in price. The analysis of the proposal to support rice prices through procurement of domestic production has led to the conclusion that even massive increase of domestic procurement would result in very small price increases while at the same time causing serious storage capacity and budgetary problems for the government.