This report by the National Audit Office, made under sections 156 and 157 of the Finance Act 1998, examines the conventions and assumptions underlying the Treasury's fiscal projections within the 2008 Budget (HC 388, session 2007-8, ISBN 9780102953336)

The Chancellor of the Exchequer asked the National Audit Office to audit two new assumptions underlying the Treasury's fiscal projections within the 2009 Budget (HC 407, session 2008-09, ISBN 9780102959161). Firstly, to assess if the 2008 Pre-Budget report assumption for the trend rate of growth, allowing for a downward adjustment to the trend output level of around 4 per cent, for the post-2006 period, together with the further downward adjustment at Budget 2009 to the trend output level of around 1 per cent, is reasonable and cautious. Secondly, to examine whether the approach used by the Treasury to produce estimates of the fiscal aggregates adjusted for the effects of the economic cycle is reasonable.

This report examines the conventions and assumptions underlying the fiscal projections within the 2010 Budget (HC 451, session 2009-10, ISBN 9780102964639) that are submitted by the Treasury for examination, along with a review of assumptions on the VAT gap, tobacco revenues, factor shares in national income and funding (debt increase)

The Budget sets out the Government's plans for taxation, public spending and economic growth for the coming year. The Government reports that the economy is stable and resilient, and continuing to grow, and that its strict fiscal rules are being met. Measures include: further financial support for children to move 250,000 out of poverty; an additional one-off payment for over-80s and over-60s households alongside the Winter Fuel Payment; increased support and access to finance for small firms; a £200 million package to support and bring forward by one year the GCSE targets; postponement of the planned fuel duty increase of 2 pence per litre in April 2008 until October 2008; an increase in alcohol duty rates by 6 per cent from 17 March 2008; laying the ground work for the introduction for five-year carbon budgets (the first of which will be included in Budget 2009); further steps to tackle climate change, including reforms to Vehicle Excise Duty, auctioning of 100 per cent of allowances for large electricity producers in Phase III of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, and that to eliminate single use carrier bags the Government will legislate and impose a charge if retailers do not take voluntary action; further reforms to modernise the tax system, and a number of measures to combat tax fraud and avoidance. (Supporting publications issued alongside the Budget are "The UK economy: analysis of long-term performance and strategic challenges" and "2008 long-term public finance report", HM Treasury - http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/budget/budget_08/bud_bud08_index.cfm). The National Audit Office "Audit of assumptions Budget 2008" is also available (HC 345, ISBN 9780102953367).

This report by the National Audit Office, made under sections 156 and 157 of the Finance Act 1998, examines the conventions and assumptions underlying the Treasury's fiscal projections within the 2006 Budget (HCP 968, session 2005-06; ISBN 0102937311).

The 2008 Pre-Budget Report presents updated assessments and forecasts of the economy and public finances, and reports on how in the face of major global economic shocks the Government intends to support the economy, businesses and households through these uncertain times while delivering its long-term goals. Measures announced include: temporarily reducing the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate to 15 per cent from1 December 2008 to 31 December 2009; bringing forward £3 billion of capital spending from 2010-11 including introducing a green stimulus supporting low carbon growth and jobs; introducing a new additional higher rate of income tax of 45 per cent for those with incomes above £150,000 from April 2011; increasing national insurance contributions by 0.5 per cent from April 2011; increasing alcohol and tobacco duties; a two pence per litre increase in fuel duty from 1 December). Immediate action to help those individuals and businesses most affected by the economic downturn include: increases in the income tax personal allowance; bringing forward the increase in Child Benefit; increases of the Child Tax Credit and a payment of £60 to all pensioners; help through mortgage rescue and Support for Mortgage Interest schemes for eligible homeowners in difficulty and a commitment from major mortgage lenders not to initiate repossession action within at least three months of an owner-occupier going into arrears; an additional £1.3 billion to support for the unemployed to find a new job; measures to help small and medium-sized enterprises facing credit constraints; a new HMRC Business Payment Support Service to allow businesses in temporary financial difficulty to pay their HMRC tax bills on a timetable they can afford; and more generous tax relief for businesses now making losses and the modification of a number of planned tax reforms, including vehicle excise duty, air passenger duty, and the deferral of the increase in the small companies' rate of corporation tax.

The Budget sets out the Government's plans for taxation, public spending and economic growth for the coming year. Details announced include: an annual growth rate of 2.5 per cent for 2006-07 with a forecast of 2.75 to 3.25 per cent for 2007-08; an inflation rate of two per cent this year; and public sector borrowing on course for a 16 billion surplus over the economic cycle ending in 2010-11, with net borrowing set at 37 billion for this year and 36 billion next year, falling to 23 billion in the year to 2010-11.