This paper identifies, quantifies, and assesses fiscal risks in Bangladesh. By performing sensitivity analysis and using stochastic simulations, it measures risks arising from shocks to GDP growth, the exchange rate, commodity prices, and interest rates. It also analyzes specific fiscal and institutional risks, such as those related to the pension system, the issuance of guarantees, the state-owned commercial banks, and the external borrowing and debt management strategy. The paper finds that fiscal aggregates are particularly sensitive to shocks to commodity prices and exchange rates. Other factors that could affect fiscal aggregates are the unfunded pension system and the limited institutional capacity.

This paper identifies, quantifies, and assesses fiscal risks in Bangladesh. By performing sensitivity analysis and using stochastic simulations, it measures risks arising from shocks to GDP growth, the exchange rate, commodity prices, and interest rates. It also analyzes specific fiscal and institutional risks, such as those related to the pension system, the issuance of guarantees, the state-owned commercial banks, and the external borrowing and debt management strategy. The paper finds that fiscal aggregates are particularly sensitive to shocks to commodity prices and exchange rates. Other factors that could affect fiscal aggregates are the unfunded pension system and the limited institutional capacity.

This departmental paper investigates how countries in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) can improve fiscal transparency, thereby raising government efficiency and reducing corruption vulnerabilities.

A number of member countries have expressed interest in advice regarding disclosure and management of fiscal risks (defined as the possibility of deviations of fiscal outcomes from what was expected at the time of the budget or other forecast). This paper analyzes the main sources of fiscal risks and—building on an overview of existing practices in a wide range of countries—provides practical suggestions in this area, including a possible Statement of Fiscal Risks and a set of Guidelines for Fiscal Risk Disclosure and Management.

In recent years there have been a number of significant reforms in local government accounting practices around the world. While the specific reasons for these changes vary, a common factor is the increasing need for governments to measure the efficacy and efficiency of their performance. Nowhere is this trend more apparent than at the local government level. This book aims to give a comparative international perspective on local government accounting innovations, and offers specific cases involving different economic, political and cultural conditions. Countries receiving extended treatment include Belgium, China, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Russia, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States. Together, the essays offer a state-of-the-art take on these issues and identify key issues for future research.

This paper discusses Bangladesh’s Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. Political uncertainty and nationwide strikes are taking a toll on economic activity, with private investment most affected. Real GDP growth moderated in FY2013 (July 2012–June 2013) to 6 percent (FY2012: 6.2 percent). Recent data on private credit and tax collections suggest economic activity continues to slow. The program remains on track. All performance criteria at end-June 2013 were met, and all structural benchmarks have been completed. The IMF staff recommends completion of the review and modification of the performance criteria for December 2013.

The September 2015 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin covers a range of research topics. The Research Summaries featured in this issue are “Lower for Longer: Neutral Rates in the United States” (Andrea Pescatori and Jarkko Turunen) and “Economic Principles for Resource Revenue Management” (Anthony J. Venables and Samuel Wills). The Q&A article looks at “Seven Questions on Financing for Development” (Amadou Sy) and the global development agenda. The issue also includes special announcements on the 2015 Annual Research Conference and the 2015 IMF Annual Report, as well as new IMF publications. Readers will also find a link to a top-viewed article from the “IMF Economic Review”—the IMF’s official research journal.