Fire managers are increasingly concerned about the threat of crown fires, yet only now are quantitative methods for assessing crown fire hazard being developed. Links among existing mathematical models of fire behavior are used to develop two indices of crown fire hazard-the Torching Index and Crowning Index. These indices can be used to ordinate different forest stands by their relative susceptibility to crown fire and to compare the effectiveness of crown fire mitigation treatments. The coupled model was used to simulate the wide range of fire behavior possible in a forest stand, from a low-intensity surface fire to a high-intensity active crown fire, for the purpose of comparing potential fire behavior. The hazard indices and behavior simulations incorporate the effects of surface fuel characteristics, dead and live fuel moistures (surface and crown), slope steepness, canopy base height, canopy bulk density, and wind reduction by the canopy. Example simulations are for western Montana Pinus ponderosa and Pinus contorta stands. Although some of the models presented here have had limited testing or restricted geographic applicability, the concepts will apply to models for other regions and new models with greater geographic applicability.

Fire managers are increasingly concerned about the threat of crown fires (CF), yet only now are quantitative methods for assessing CF hazard being developed. Links among existing mathematical models of fire behavior are used to develop two indices of CF hazard -- the Torching Index & Crowning Index. These indices can be used to coordinate different forest stands by their relative susceptibility to CF & to compare the effective. of CF mitigation treat. The coupled model was used to simulate the wide range of fire behavior possible in a forest stand for the purpose of comparing potential fire behavior. The concepts will apply to models for other regions & new models.

This report describes a new set of standard fire behavior fuel models for use with Rothermels surface fire spread model and the relationship of the new set to the original set of 13 fire behavior fuel models. To assist with transition to using the new fuel models, a fuel model selection guide, fuel model crosswalk, and set of fuel model photos are provided.

Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction

Fire in California’s Ecosystems describes fire in detail—both as an integral natural process in the California landscape and as a growing threat to urban and suburban developments in the state. Written by many of the foremost authorities on the subject, this comprehensive volume is an ideal authoritative reference tool and the foremost synthesis of knowledge on the science, ecology, and management of fire in California. Part One introduces the basics of fire ecology, including overviews of historical fires, vegetation, climate, weather, fire as a physical and ecological process, and fire regimes, and reviews the interactions between fire and the physical, plant, and animal components of the environment. Part Two explores the history and ecology of fire in each of California's nine bioregions. Part Three examines fire management in California during Native American and post-Euro-American settlement and also current issues related to fire policy such as fuel management, watershed management, air quality, invasive plant species, at-risk species, climate change, social dynamics, and the future of fire management. This edition includes critical scientific and management updates and four new chapters on fire weather, fire regimes, climate change, and social dynamics.