Since its introduction in 1972, Stein’s method has offered a completely novel way of evaluating the quality of normal approximations. Through its characterizing equation approach, it is able to provide approximation error bounds in a wide variety of situations, even in the presence of complicated dependence. Use of the method thus opens the door to the analysis of random phenomena arising in areas including statistics, physics, and molecular biology. Though Stein's method for normal approximation is now mature, the literature has so far lacked a complete self contained treatment. This volume contains thorough coverage of the method’s fundamentals, includes a large number of recent developments in both theory and applications, and will help accelerate the appreciation, understanding, and use of Stein's method by providing the reader with the tools needed to apply it in new situations. It addresses researchers as well as graduate students in Probability, Statistics and Combinatorics.

This book presents broadly applicable methods for the large deviation and moderate deviation analysis of discrete and continuous time stochastic systems. A feature of the book is the systematic use of variational representations for quantities of interest such as normalized logarithms of probabilities and expected values. By characterizing a large deviation principle in terms of Laplace asymptotics, one converts the proof of large deviation limits into the convergence of variational representations. These features are illustrated though their application to a broad range of discrete and continuous time models, including stochastic partial differential equations, processes with discontinuous statistics, occupancy models, and many others. The tools used in the large deviation analysis also turn out to be useful in understanding Monte Carlo schemes for the numerical approximation of the same probabilities and expected values. This connection is illustrated through the design and analysis of importance sampling and splitting schemes for rare event estimation. The book assumes a solid background in weak convergence of probability measures and stochastic analysis, and is suitable for advanced graduate students, postdocs and researchers.

An integrated package of powerful probabilistic tools and key applications in modern mathematical data science.

The Poisson "law of small numbers" is a central principle in modern theories of reliability, insurance, and the statistics of extremes. It also has ramifications in apparently unrelated areas, such as the description of algebraic and combinatorial structures, and the distribution of prime numbers. Yet despite its importance, the law of small numbers is only an approximation. In 1975, however, a new technique was introduced, the Stein-Chen method, which makes it possible to estimate the accuracy of the approximation in a wide range of situations. This book provides an introduction to the method, and a varied selection of examples of its application, emphasizing the flexibility of the technique when combined with a judicious choice of coupling. It also contains more advanced material, in particular on compound Poisson and Poisson process approximation, where the reader is brought to the boundaries of current knowledge. The study will be of special interest to postgraduate students and researchers in applied probability as well as computer scientists.

Developed from celebrated Harvard statistics lectures, Introduction to Probability provides essential language and tools for understanding statistics, randomness, and uncertainty. The book explores a wide variety of applications and examples, ranging from coincidences and paradoxes to Google PageRank and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Additional application areas explored include genetics, medicine, computer science, and information theory. The print book version includes a code that provides free access to an eBook version. The authors present the material in an accessible style and motivate concepts using real-world examples. Throughout, they use stories to uncover connections between the fundamental distributions in statistics and conditioning to reduce complicated problems to manageable pieces. The book includes many intuitive explanations, diagrams, and practice problems. Each chapter ends with a section showing how to perform relevant simulations and calculations in R, a free statistical software environment.