In the first decade of this century, the focus of law-enforcement agencies has shifted from prosecuting crime to anticipating crime. This approach emphasizes the discovery of narratives in crime-related data. However, while narratives are at the mainstay of entertainment, law, and politics, a scientific method by which narratives can be created - and subsequently be used to anticipate criminal behavior - still has to be established. In the creative industry, a narrative is generated by a scenario. A scenario describes the interactions between the characters and includes information - about behavior, goals, motivations, modi operandi, and resistances - that have to be overcome. Furthermore, a creative scenario is composed by a limited number of scenario components. In this book, a new and innovative scenario model is designed by which narratives in data can be detected. It introduces the ESC12 - the twelve Elementary Scenario Components - by which every conceivable narrative can be created. Moreover, the book introduces the ESC12 scenario model, a model that may support law enforcement agencies to effectively anticipate criminal behavior. The book's author, Peter A.M.G. de Kock, graduated as a filmmaker from the Film Academy of the Amsterdam School of the Arts in 1994, and has traveled all over the world as a professional photographer, cameraman, and film-director. In 2009, after receiving a Master degree in Criminal Investigation, he introduced creative scenarios to anticipate (terrorist) attacks. The operational results of his team were thought provoking, and he was invited to demonstrate his method of operation to prominent members of Dutch Parliament and the Ministry of Security and Justice. He was then offered the opportunity to pursue the use of scenarios to anticipate crime, as an external Ph.D. student at Tilburg University. This book is the result of his study. [Subject: Criminology, Policing]

This is an introduction to the techniques of predicting criminal behaviour, and the ethical and practical issues surrounding them. It discusses the use of prediction in bail, sentencing, and parole decisions, as well as in the allocation of treatments to offenders and presents a typology of predictive approaches. This typology serves as the framework for a discussion of the various predictive factors, including sex, race and ethnicity, age, personality and intelligence, socio-economic status, criminal history, institutional adjustment, drug and alcohol use, etc. Issues of variable measurement and sampling are reviewed, as are some of the statistical methods used to predict criminality, including the Burgess Method, predictive attributive analysis, multiple regression, multidiscriminant analysis, and log-linear techniques. The book concludes with an evaluation of the potential value of statistical predictions.

Are you ready to uncover the secrets of crime prevention? In a rapidly evolving world, understanding criminal behavior and predicting crimes is more crucial than ever. Introducing "Ultimate Crime Prevention: Predicting a Crime with Efficiency," your ultimate guide to staying one step ahead of criminals. This comprehensive manual is a must-read for both travelers and law enforcement officers seeking to enhance their knowledge and skills in crime prevention. Dive into the pages of this book to gain a deep understanding of the criminal mind and the environments that pose the greatest risks. Discover how crimes occur and, most importantly, how to predict and prevent them from happening in the first place. Prepare to be amazed as you uncover hidden insights that even seasoned police officers may not be aware of. Drawing from the expertise of special anti-terrorist units, police officers, security guards, and the author's own firsthand experiences, this book offers a wealth of knowledge that goes far beyond what you'll find in typical crime prevention resources. Written by a renowned researcher and self-defense instructor, this book is the culmination of decades of work in the field. The author's expertise shines through in every chapter, providing you with practical strategies and invaluable insights to keep yourself and others safe from harm. Whether you're a traveler seeking to navigate unfamiliar territories with confidence or a law enforcement professional aiming to enhance your crime prevention skills, "Ultimate Crime Prevention" is your go-to resource. It's time to take control of your safety and become a crime prevention expert.

“Deftly shows how a seemingly frivolous film genre can guide us in shaping tomorrow’s world.” —Seth Shostak, senior astronomer, SETI Institute Artificial intelligence, gene manipulation, cloning, and interplanetary travel are all ideas that seemed like fairy tales but a few years ago. And now their possibilities are very much here. But are we ready to handle these advances? This book, by a physicist and expert on responsible technology development, reveals how science fiction movies can help us think about and prepare for the social consequences of technologies we don’t yet have, but that are coming faster than we imagine. Films from the Future looks at twelve movies that take us on a journey through the worlds of biological and genetic manipulation, human enhancement, cyber technologies, and nanotechnology. Readers will gain a broader understanding of the complex relationship between science and society. The movies mix old and new, and the familiar and unfamiliar, to provide a unique, entertaining, and ultimately transformative take on the power of emerging technologies, and the responsibilities they come with.