Revised edition of International handbook of threat assessment, [2014]

"The American people should know as much as possible about the threats facing our nation and what their intelligence agencies are doing to protect them." -Avril Haines, Director of National Intelligence (2021) Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community (2021) is an annual report of worldwide threats to the national security of the United States compiled by the US Intelligence Community. It warns of the many perils facing the US, including China's increasing power, the geopolitical risks of Russia, Iran and North Korea, the long-term economic fallout of COVID-19, and global as well as domestic terrorism. This brief report with its short-term threat assessment is a good companion guide to Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World a 2021 report by the National Intelligence Council, which describes specifically long-term global challenges (also available from Cosimo Reports). Students of national security, policymakers, journalists, and anyone interested in US security will find this report essential reading.

Important annual publication from the US intelligence community. The world is facing a fragile and strained order due to increased competition between major powers like China and Russia, more intense and unpredictable transnational challenges like climate change and pandemics, and numerous regional conflicts with potential for wider implications. These factors are creating a complex and interconnected security landscape with cascading risks for U.S. interests and global stability. This annotated edition illustrates the capabilities of the AI Lab for Book-Lovers to add context and ease-of-use to manuscripts. The annotations were created using OpenAI's gpt-3.5-turbo and Google's Gemini 1.5-pro. This annotation package is ADEPT 2.0 and includes TLDR (three words), TLDR (Straightforward), Scientific Style Abstract, ELI5, Mnemonic (Acronymic), Mnemonic (Speakable), Mnemonic (Lyrics), Mash-up, Takeaways for the Boss, Action Items, Viewpoints, Grounds for Dissent, Red Team Critique, MAGA Perspective, Expert Surprises, Page-by-Page Summaries, Notable Passages, and a Glossary divided into General and Specific terms. The cover illustration is by ChatGPT.

The search for a distinct "terrorist profile" has been going on for many years, and while it is generally agreed that nobody is born a terrorist, there is plenty of disagreement about why a person might become one. Whereas personal and situational push and pull factors can be combined to determine how and why young people become involved in terrorism, preventing an individual from following a path that ends in violence without moral restraint poses an enormous challenge, especially in an open society. This book presents papers from the NATO Advanced Research Workshop titled "A Review of the Utility of Existing Terrorism Risk Assessment Instruments and Policies: Is there the Need for Possible New Approaches?", held in Berlin, Germany, on 29-30 November 2019. Researchers were asked to present papers for discussion sessions with invited participants and practitioners from a number of NATO member and partner countries. Various assessment instruments for identifying problematic individuals at an early stage were presented by experts. It was generally agreed that, due to cultural, religious and other differences, there is no simple way to identify the relatively few high-risk individuals among the larger population of politically radicalized but not necessarily violent individuals who pose no threat. Framed by an Introduction and Conclusion, the 16 chapters in the book are divided into three parts: Theory and Risk/Threat Assessment Instrument Policy Themes; Implementation of Politically Motivated Terrorism Protocols; and Personality Traits/Disorders, Anti-State Terrorism Profiles and the DSM-5 Personality Trait Instrument. This practice-oriented book will be of interest to all those tasked with protecting society from some of its most dangerous members.

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Climate change poses many challenges that affect society and the natural world. With these challenges, however, come opportunities to respond. By taking steps to adapt to and mitigate climate change, the risks to society and the impacts of continued climate change can be lessened. The National Climate Assessment, coordinated by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, is a mandated report intended to inform response decisions. Required to be developed every four years, these reports provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date evaluation of climate change impacts available for the United States, making them a unique and important climate change document. The draft Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) report reviewed here addresses a wide range of topics of high importance to the United States and society more broadly, extending from human health and community well-being, to the built environment, to businesses and economies, to ecosystems and natural resources. This report evaluates the draft NCA4 to determine if it meets the requirements of the federal mandate, whether it provides accurate information grounded in the scientific literature, and whether it effectively communicates climate science, impacts, and responses for general audiences including the public, decision makers, and other stakeholders.