Abstract : The objective of this work is to provide the best estimation of physical state of the Great Lakes using the two-way coupled Great Lakes-Atmosphere Regional Model (GLARM) integrated with Data Assimilation (DA) methodology. The aim of the first part is to understand the lake internal process that determines the relationship between lake surface temperature (LST) and lake thermal variations. A 3-D hydrodynamic model was used to examine the nonlinear processes of water mixing and ice formation that caused changes in lake heat content and further variation of LST. The results show that heat content trends do not necessarily follow (and can even be opposed to) trends in LST. In addition, the lake total lake heat content, thermal properties, length of stratification periods, and lake stability intensity were analyzed using validated GLARM 3-D results from 1983-2016. Furthermore, the lake thermal variations were analyzed using physical stability indices. The results reveal that climate change would not only affect the air-lake energy exchange but can also alter lake internal dynamics. In the second part, a Great Lakes forecast system with both long-term and short-term predictions is presented. A downscaled, robust, and sophisticated two-way coupled GLARM model was used to project the climate change over the Great Lakes region over the periods of 2030 - 2050 and 2080 - 2100. Two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) were included. As a result, the stress in air temperature and precipitation during the period of 2080 - 2100 under the high emission scenario (RCP8.5) will be exacerbated with larger spatial variability compared with the medium emission scenario (RCP4.5). For lake conditions, annual mean LST of Lake Erie shows the largest changes among the five lakes. The decrease in the mean lake ice coverage is projected over all the five lakes, while the largest decrease occurs along the coast. Furthermore, the application of DA using Lake Erie as a case study was evaluated. The results show that DA can effectively improve the model performance with limited observational data. The data assimilative model also improves forecasting accuracy and restrains the forecasting uncertainty to an acceptable level on a timescale of 1-7 days after unleashed from DA.

This report provides a state-of-the-art review of the climate change effects on lake hydrodynamics and water quality. Most of the engineering cases in this book deal with the ability of existing infrastructure to cope with extreme weather conditions. The case studies are intended to illustrate the advancement in modeling research on lake hydrodynamics, thermal stratification, pollutant transport, and water quality by highlighting the climate change aspects in the application of these techniques. Topics include climate and lake responses, lake thermodynamics, large-scale circulation, wind-waves on large lakes, great lakes ice cover, and water quality.

"Lakes and wetlands are prevalent in the Great Lakes Region of the United States. They play an important role in regional and local hydroclimatology due to the large differences in albedo, heat capacity, roughness and energy exchange in comparison to that of the land surface. Lakes and wetlands affect the regional water cycle by providing additional storage for surface runoff within a watershed. Water leaves the watershed more slowly, which leads to an increase in evaporation and baseflow. Lakes influence the energy cycle by changing the partitioning of energy cycle components (i.e. latent heat, sensible heat, and net radiation) due to differences in albedo, heat capacity, and roughness with vegetative surface. Climate variability and climate change affect the regional scale water and energy cycle by modifying climatic variables such as precipitation, air temperature, solar radiation, and wind speed. These variables influence the seasonal dynamics of lakes including heat storage during the ice-free season and ice cover in the winter. Changes in lake ice and heat storage in turn feedback to local and regional climate making them a potentially important part of the climate system in regions with lots of small lakes (i.e. Great Lakes Region). The overarching goal of this study is to understand the impacts of historic climate variability and climate change on lakes and wetlands in the Great Lakes Region of the United States. To study hydroclimatic impacts, an integrated approach combining in-situ and remotely sensed observations with land surface modeling is adopted. The Variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model with a physically based lake algorithm was used to study the long-term (1916-2007) impacts of historic climate variability and climate change. The VIC model was calibrated and evaluated against daily streamflow, energy fluxes, inundation area, lake water temperature, and lake ice freeze-up and break-up dates. A method for developing depth-area relationships for the lakes in the study domain is derived based on observed bathymetric data for lakes in Michigan and applied to lakes in Minnesota and Wisconsin."--Pages xviii-xix.

Cambridge, UK : Cambridge University Press, 1998.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.