This background paper to The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2023 analyses a key element of agrifood systems transformation: the change of patterns in food supply and demand. Several studies have discussed this topic, but the current one takes an innovative perspective of analysis, considering these changes with a spatial perspective using the urban rural catchment areas (URCA) approach to analyse changes in food expenditure across the rural–urban continuum, using Living Standards Measurement Studies (LSMS) of 11 African countries. The analysis is preceded by a literature review of agrifood value chains transformation stages, drivers and current situation, focused in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and is followed by a macro review of food supply around the world and a “macro-meso” review of the supply of wheat and rice in two African countries. The conclusions shows that most food is purchased in all households across the rural–urban continuum, even in rural areas, breaking with the “myth” of rural subsistence farming in Africa. In addition, the results show a diffusion of the consumption of processed foods, including in a lesser extent highly processed foods, all across the rural–urban continuum, and not only in rural areas. From a food supply perspective, the low global availability of foods that are part of a healthy diet, as fruits, vegetables and legumes, nuts and seeds calls for increasing efforts for producing more nutritious foods in all countries of the world.

This background paper to The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2023 discusses the dynamics and drivers of urbanization, the associated changes in agrifood systems and the corresponding risks and opportunities to ensuring access to affordable healthy diets for all. The paper is based on a systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence from scientific papers and informed by new analyses conducted for the 2023 edition of The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World. A conceptual framework is presented for understanding the different pathways through which urbanization is driving changes in agrifood systems across the rural–urban continuum, and is, in turn, affecting access to affordable healthy diets.

This report provides an update on global progress towards the targets of ending hunger (SDG Target 2.1) and all forms of malnutrition (SDG Target 2.2) and estimates on the number of people who are unable to afford a healthy diet. Since its 2017 edition, this report has repeatedly highlighted that the intensification and interaction of conflict, climate extremes and economic slowdowns and downturns, combined with highly unaffordable nutritious foods and growing inequality, are pushing us off track to meet the SDG 2 targets. However, other important megatrends must also be factored into the analysis to fully understand the challenges and opportunities for meeting the SDG 2 targets. One such megatrend, and the focus of this year’s report, is urbanization. New evidence shows that food purchases in some countries are no longer high only among urban households but also among rural households. Consumption of highly processed foods is also increasing in peri-urban and rural areas of some countries. These changes are affecting people’s food security and nutrition in ways that differ depending on where they live across the rural–urban continuum. This timely and relevant theme is aligned with the United Nations General Assembly-endorsed New Urban Agenda, and the report provides recommendations on the policies, investments and actions needed to address the challenges of agrifood systems transformation under urbanization and to enable opportunities for ensuring access to affordable healthy diets for everyone.

This background paper to The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2023 presents an innovative analysis of within-country variability of the cost and affordability of a healthy diet (CoAHD). The study uses an innovative spatial perspective by analysing the changes along the urban–rural catchment areas (URCA) and using the Living Standards Measurement Studies (LSMS) of 11 African countries. The results show that the cost of a healthy diet in peri-urban areas is lower than it is in urban areas, but the percentage of the population unable to afford a healthy diet is always higher in the surroundings of urban centres. The gap is particularly large between small cities and their surrounding areas, and the share of population unable to secure a healthy diet is disproportionally high in the more remote rural areas. The paper also investigates three methodological issues that were encountered during the analysis to provide evidence on the validity of the FAO Healthy Diet Basket (HDB) methodology for the estimation of subnational cost and affordability of a healthy diet.

Despite African consumers under-consuming nutrient dense fruits and vegetables (FV) and animal products (AP), and the farm production and supply chains of these products are fraught with constraints that keep them from operating optimally, we find abundant recent evidence of dynamism in these sectors. To wit: (1) consumption of these products in levels and shares is already substantial and growing rapidly; (2) supply of these products is growing rapidly, just not yet much faster than population growth; (3) supply growth is manifested in a number of countries by dynamic “meso booms” with diffusion of farming and growth in midstream ("Hidden Middle") value chain segments; these booms are “grass roots” driven, without subsidy or management by government or NGOs or large companies. We reviewed recent survey-based evidence of these booms and discussed the drivers. The policy implications are the need for governments to invest in the conditions we found to be enabling these booms, that is, roads and wholesale markets and electrification and other infrastructure hard and soft.

Impacts of increasing population pressure on food demand and land and water resources have sparked interest in nutrient and water balances and flows at a range of scales. In IWMI Research Report 115, it was tried for the first time to quantify rural-urban food flows for selected cities in Ghana and Burkina Faso to analyse their dependency on food supplied from rural vs. peri-urban vs. urban farming. Both, the urban nutrient and water footprints are closely interlinked. Currently, 80-95 percent of the domestic water used and the nutrients consumed go to waste without treatment or resource recovery. The economic dimensions are significant. Options to reduce the environmental burden by closing the rural-urban water and nutrient cycles are discussed.

Rapid population growth, poorly planned urbanization, and evolving agricultural production and distribution practices are changing foodways in African cities and creating challenges: Africans are increasingly facing hunger, undernutrition, and malnutrition. Yet change also creates new opportunities. The food economy currently is the main source of jobs on the continent, promising more employment in the near future in farming, food processing, and food product distribution. These opportunities are undermined, however, by inefficient links among farmers, intermediaries, and consumers, leading to the loss of one-third of all food produced. This volume is an in-depth analysis of food system shortcomings in three West African cities: Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire; Rabat, Morocco; and Niamey, Niger. Using the lens of geographical economics and sociology, the authors draw on quantitative and qualitative field surveys and case studies to offer insightful analyses of political institutions. They show the importance of “hard†? physical infrastructure, such as transport, storage, and wholesale and retail market facilities. They also describe the “soft†? infrastructure of institutions that facilitate trade, such as interpersonal trust, market information systems, and business climates. The authors find that the vague mandates and limited capacities of national trade and agriculture ministries, regional and urban authorities, neighborhood councils, and market cooperatives often hamper policy interventions. This volume comes to a simple conclusion: international development policy makers and their financial and technical partners have neglected urban markets for far too long, and now is the time to rethink and reinvest in this complex yet crucial subject.