An Investigation of the Accuracy of Heuristic Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis
Title | An Investigation of the Accuracy of Heuristic Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis PDF eBook |
Author | Wendell Phillips Simpson |
Publisher | |
Pages | 32 |
Release | 1994 |
Genre | Economics |
ISBN |
Cost uncertainty analysis has received a great deal of attention over the last several years. The purpose of a cost uncertainty analysis is to identify the cost and schedule implications associated with program uncertainties. Common methods for uncertainty analysis characterize the possible cost and schedule outcomes of a project using a probability density function (pdf). Heuristic methods have been proposed for uncertainty analysis that assume the shape of the total cost pdf is either normally or lognormally distributed. While experienced analysts feel these distributions provide reasonable approximations, little evidence exists to either confirm or refute these presumptions. An experiment is conducted in which number of cost elements, the degree of skewness of the cost elements, and the degree of correlation between cost elements are varied systematically. The resulting total cost pdfs are compared to the heuristic distributions using goodness of fit tests. The results show that the normal distribution provides an excellent approximation for the simulated distributions. Guidelines are offered that help the cost analyst determine whether these heuristics ought to be applied in a cost uncertainty analysis. Cost analysis, Cost uncertainty analysis.
Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis
Title | Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis PDF eBook |
Author | Paul R. Garvey |
Publisher | CRC Press |
Pages | 526 |
Release | 2016-01-06 |
Genre | Mathematics |
ISBN | 148221976X |
Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis: A Systems Engineering Perspective, Second Edition gives you a thorough grounding in the analytical methods needed for modeling and measuring uncertainty in the cost of engineering systems. This includes the treatment of correlation between the cost of system elements, how to present the analysis to
The Journal of Cost Analysis & Management
Title | The Journal of Cost Analysis & Management PDF eBook |
Author | |
Publisher | |
Pages | 536 |
Release | 1999 |
Genre | Cost accounting |
ISBN |
Government Reports Announcements & Index
Title | Government Reports Announcements & Index PDF eBook |
Author | |
Publisher | |
Pages | 624 |
Release | 1995 |
Genre | Science |
ISBN |
Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis
Title | Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis PDF eBook |
Author | Paul R. Garvey |
Publisher | |
Pages | |
Release | 2016 |
Genre | Electronic books |
ISBN | 9780429132865 |
A careful blend of theory and practice, this book presents a comprehensive approach to assessing the impact of unplanned events on the cost of engineering complex systems. It illustrates how probability theory is applied to model, measure, and manage risk in the cost of a systems engineering project. The book contains numerous mathematical and prof
Search in Artificial Intelligence
Title | Search in Artificial Intelligence PDF eBook |
Author | Leveen Kanal |
Publisher | Springer Science & Business Media |
Pages | 491 |
Release | 2012-12-06 |
Genre | Computers |
ISBN | 1461387884 |
Search is an important component of problem solving in artificial intelligence (AI) and, more generally, in computer science, engineering and operations research. Combinatorial optimization, decision analysis, game playing, learning, planning, pattern recognition, robotics and theorem proving are some of the areas in which search algbrithms playa key role. Less than a decade ago the conventional wisdom in artificial intelligence was that the best search algorithms had already been invented and the likelihood of finding new results in this area was very small. Since then many new insights and results have been obtained. For example, new algorithms for state space, AND/OR graph, and game tree search were discovered. Articles on new theoretical developments and experimental results on backtracking, heuristic search and constraint propaga tion were published. The relationships among various search and combinatorial algorithms in AI, Operations Research, and other fields were clarified. This volume brings together some of this recent work in a manner designed to be accessible to students and professionals interested in these new insights and developments.
Principles of Risk Analysis
Title | Principles of Risk Analysis PDF eBook |
Author | Charles Yoe |
Publisher | CRC Press |
Pages | 873 |
Release | 2019-01-30 |
Genre | Technology & Engineering |
ISBN | 0429664893 |
In every decision problem there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis science uses the best available evidence to assess what we know while it is carefully intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we do not know in the evaluation of decision choices and decision outcomes. The field of risk analysis science continues to expand and grow and the second edition of Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty responds to this evolution with several significant changes. The language has been updated and expanded throughout the text and the book features several new areas of expansion including five new chapters. The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. Features: Details the tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication in a straightforward, conceptual manner Provides sufficient detail to empower professionals in any discipline to become risk practitioners Expands the risk management emphasis with a new chapter to serve private industry and a growing public sector interest in the growing practice of enterprise risk management Describes dozens of quantitative and qualitative risk assessment tools in a new chapter Practical guidance and ideas for using risk science to improve decisions and their outcomes is found in a new chapter on decision making under uncertainty Practical methods for helping risk professionals to tell their risk story are the focus of a new chapter Features an expanded set of examples of the risk process that demonstrate the growing applications of risk analysis As before, this book continues to appeal to professionals who want to learn and apply risk science in their own professions as well as students preparing for professional careers. This book remains a discipline free guide to the principles of risk analysis that is accessible to all interested practitioners. Files used in the creation of this book and additional exercises as well as a free student version of Palisade Corporation’s Decision Tools Suite software are available with the purchase of this book. A less detailed introduction to the risk analysis science tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication is found in Primer of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Second Edition, ISBN: 978-1-138-31228-9.