In this report, the author describes challenges to any potential unification of Korea and outlines alternative paths to unification. He also recommends actions that South Korea and the United States could take to achieve a more favorable outcome.

This report examines what could be done to convince North Korean elites that unification would be good for them. It describes five areas of concern that North Korean elites would likely have about the outcomes of unification and proposes policies that the Republic of Korea government could adopt that would give North Korean elites hope for an acceptable unification outcome.

This paper predicts an alternate scenario to Korean reunification to those currently being discussed in and out of South Korea. Much of what has been written discusses the demise of the present North Korean government along a spectrum of turbulence, from gradual decay to violent implosion. The predicted results also vary from peaceful absorption by the South Korean government to a 'war of desperation' scenario precipitated by the decaying Northern regime in a last ditch effort to retain power. This paper explores a scenario where the two Koreas end up as secondary players in the future of the Korean peninsula. The primary regional actor to emerge will be China. As the ascendant regional power, China will shape events on the Korean Peninsula to fit its own future vision of Northeast Asia. It is further proposed that this Chinese vision will seek to maintain the peaceful division of North and South Korea in the short term (10 to 20 years) following the demise of the present North Korean government. China is seen, in this scenario, as moving unilaterally, on the basis of long-standing agreements with North Korea, into North Korea as the government implodes. It is in the Chinese interest to prevent the uncontrolled rise of a new, potentially powerful reunified Korean regional competitor. Additionally, China will seek to minimize United States' influence in the region, For obvious historical, military and economic reasons, the Japanese desire to maintain the geopolitical and economic status quo will cause them to play a supporting role in the Chinese effort. This move, together with its predictable control of the Spratly Islands oil and natural gas reserves, an already powerful military, and rapidly growing economy, will put China in a position to much more effectively influence the future of the region.

In The Real North Korea, Lankov substitutes cold, clear analysis for the overheated rhetoric surrounding this opaque police state. Based on vast expertise, this book reveals how average North Koreans live, how their leaders rule, and how both survive

The aim of this project is to research the necessity of international cooperation on Korean unification in legal terms as South Korea’s Unification Policy and how issues of the Korean Peninsula have been dealt with in the international framework. Since this is the second year of a five-year project, the conceptual aspect requires clarification in the overall aspect and this requires a multidisciplinary approach. But the main focus remains the legal aspect, international law, in particular. This study assumes that unification will be a gradual process, generally in three stages: (1) inter-Korean cooperation, (2) negotiation for inter-Korean unification (be it North Korea’s collapse, or actual inter-Korean negotiation for unification, this stage includes any inter-Korean negotiation for unification and international negotiation formula, such as Six Party Talks, etc.), and (3) post-unification integration. The study begins with the understanding that South Korea needs to be prepared for legal matters potentially arising in these processes. The project this year, in particular, deals with the legal issues that should be dealt with in the first and second stages. The scope of the papers in this project covers four main areas. The first is time span. The research for this project covers the 19th century to the present and draws future-oriented implications, but the main focus is on current issues. The second is in regard to approaches. The study deals with three main approaches: historical, political, and legal, but for purposes of this project, the main focus is on the legal aspect. The third concerns the issues addressed. These are the nuclear issue, the military issue, inter-Korean cooperation issues, and the human rights issue. Finally, the scope of actors considered includes South and North Korea, neighboring countries (the U.S., China, Japan, and Russia), and international organizations (e.g., UN, WFP, WHO, etc.). The papers included here are organized into three main sections. The first concerns the meaning of Korean unification and the context of international cooperation. Park Jong-Chul provides a general overview of the Park Geun-Hye administration’s North Korea and unification policy, referred to as “Trustpolitik,” and the trust-building process on the Korean Peninsula, as well as the need for international cooperation. Sue Mi Terry examines the U.S. and China’s perspective on the issues laid out above. She explores areas where U.S.-China interests converge and diverge and whether strategic cooperation and coordination between the two nations are possible in the case of Korean unification. The second section presents historical and legal perspectives related to the situation on the Korean peninsula. Charles K. Armstrong’s work on the historical perspective is divided into three sections chronologically: (1) the struggle of 19th Century Korea to become a modern sovereign state and its failure with the advent of colonial rule, (2) war leading to the division of the Korean Peninsula, and (3) the inter-Korean situation based on de facto recognition (as opposed to de jure) as a political entity arising out of the 1972 Joint Communiqué and the “special relationship” from then on. Next, Roh Jeong-Ho provides a legal approach to the question of inter-Korean relations and the debate on unification by dividing the period from 1876 to the present day into five distinct periods and examining the limitations to the legal order and the evolution of world order as they pertain to Korea. Finally, Leon V. Sigal discusses how international law and institutions might improve South Korean security and facilitate inter-Korean reconciliation with special attention to confidence-building in the West Sea. The third section examines in greater detail the legal aspects of Inter-Korean Cooperation and human rights. Regarding human rights, it is important to consider the link between inter-Korean cooperation and human rights. The improvement of human rights and people’s livelihood in North Korea, which is part of the ultimate goal of unification, can be achieved by inter-Korean cooperation. Inter-Korean cooperation leads to inducing change in North Korea, which then logically leads to the improvement of human rights in North Korea. Lee Hyo-Won focuses on the legal matters regarding the establishment of a DMZ World Peace Park. Soung Jea-Hyen looks at the legal matters regarding the internationalization of the Gaeseong Industrial Complex. Cho Jung-Hyun provides an analysis of the contents and legal implications of the recent outcome of the UN Commission of Inquiry (COI) on Human Rights in the DPRK, such as the meaning of stating “crimes against humanity,” the notion of Responsibility to Protect (R2P) in respect to North Korea, and transitional justice in the possible post-unification stage. Finally, David Hawk tracks North Korean human rights developments in the post-COI period. Preface/ Jong-Chul Park and Jeong-Ho Roh I. The Meaning of Korean Unification in the Context of International Cooperation South Korea’s TrustPolitik and International Cooperation.....1 South Korea’s TrustPolitik and International Cooperation/ Jong-Chul Park.....3 U.S.-China Rivalry and the Unification of the Korean Peninsula/ Sue Mi Terry.....31 II. The Situation on the Korean Peninsula: Historical and Legal Perspectives .....59 An Unfinished Project: Challenges and Struggles of Korea to Become a Modern Sovereign Nation-State/ Charles K. Armstrong.....61 The Limits of Legal Order in an Evolving World Order on the Korean Peninsula/ Jeong-Ho Roh.....89 Legal Approaches to Korean Security in the Early Stages of Unification: The Armistice Agreement and the NLL/ Leon V. Sigal.....119 III. Legal Aspects of Inter-Korean Cooperation and Human Rights.....145 Legal Perspective and International Cooperation on World Peace Park in DMZ between South and North Korea / Hyo-Won Lee.....147 Plan for the Internationalization of the Kaesong Industrial Region and the Resolution of Its Commercial Disputes/ Jea-Hyen Soung.....169 The Report of the UN Commission of Inquiry (COI) on North Korean Human Rights: Some International Legal Analyses/ Jung-Hyun Cho.....195 North Korea’s Response to the UN Commission of Inquiry (COI) Report on the Situation of Human Rights in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea/ David Hawk.....213 Contributors.....251

Against the backdrop of China’s mounting influence and North Korea’s growing nuclear capability and expanding missile arsenal, South Korea faces a set of strategic choices that will shape its economic prospects and national security. In South Korea at the Crossroads, Scott A. Snyder examines the trajectory of fifty years of South Korean foreign policy and offers predictions—and a prescription—for the future. Pairing a historical perspective with a shrewd understanding of today’s political landscape, Snyder contends that South Korea’s best strategy remains investing in a robust alliance with the United States. Snyder begins with South Korea’s effort in the 1960s to offset the risk of abandonment by the United States during the Vietnam War and the subsequent crisis in the alliance during the 1970s. A series of shifts in South Korean foreign relations followed: the “Nordpolitik” engagement with the Soviet Union and China at the end of the Cold War; Kim Dae Jung’s “Sunshine Policy,” designed to bring North Korea into the international community; “trustpolitik,” which sought to foster diplomacy with North Korea and Japan; and changes in South Korea’s relationship with the United States. Despite its rise as a leader in international financial, development, and climate-change forums, South Korea will likely still require the commitment of the United States to guarantee its security. Although China is a tempting option, Snyder argues that only the United States is both credible and capable in this role. South Korea remains vulnerable relative to other regional powers in northeast Asia despite its rising profile as a middle power, and it must balance the contradiction of desirable autonomy and necessary alliance.

Persusasion is better than force. This central belief behind late South Korean President Kim Dae-jung s unprecedented policy of engagement with North Korea became a key that promised to unlock half a century of conflict and provocation between North and South Korea. Kim s Sunshine Policy argued that encouraging North Korea to come out of isolation and end confrontation was better than trying to force it to change and it came to define a generation in South Korean politics, allowing millions to dare to believe that half a century of war could be brought to an end. Now this new book by Chung-in Moon, a Yonsei University professor and former South Korean government adviser, presents a definitive analysis of how Kim developed and implemented his revolutionary policy, the challenges it faced and the mistake that Lee Myung-bak s government has made in abandoning it. Moon was a first-hand witness to the events of the Kim years, assisting in drafting the Sunshine Policy, attending the historic inter- Korean Summits in 2000 and 2007 that were fruits of its labors, and chronicling the public, political and global support for the policy. -- from http://www.amazon.com (May 5, 2014).