Agricultural yields have increased steadily in the last half century, particularly since the Green Revolution. At the same time, inflation-adjusted agricultural commodity prices have been trending downward as increases in supply outpace the growth of demand. Recent severe weather events, biofuel mandates, and a switch toward a more meat-heavy diet in emerging economies have nevertheless boosted commodity prices. Whether this is a temporary jump or the beginning of a longer-term trend is an open question. Agricultural Productivity and Producer Behavior examines the factors contributing to the remarkably steady increase in global yields and assesses whether yield growth can continue. This research also considers whether agricultural productivity growth has been, and will be, associated with significant environmental externalities. Among the topics studied are genetically modified crops; changing climatic factors; farm production responses to government regulations including crop insurance, transport subsidies, and electricity subsidies for groundwater extraction; and the role of specific farm practices such as crop diversification, disease management, and water-saving methods. This research provides new evidence that technological as well as policy choices influence agricultural productivity.

"The conference was organized by the three editors of this book and took place on August 15-16, 2012 in Seattle."--Preface.

Note for the electronic edition: This draft has been assembled from information prepared by authors from around the world. It has been submitted for editing and production by the USDA Agricultural Research Service Information Staff and should be cited as an electronic draft of a forthcoming publication. Because the 1986 edition is out of print, because we have added much new and updated information, and because the time to publication for so massive a project is still many months away, we are making this draft widely available for comment from industry stakeholders, as well as university research, teaching and extension staff.

To understand the impacts of support programs on global emissions, this paper considers the impacts of domestic subsidies, price distortions at the border, and investments in emission-reducing technologies on global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture. In a step towards a full evaluation of the impacts, it uses a counterfactual global model scenario showing how much emissions from agricultural production would change if agricultural support were abolished worldwide. The analysis indicates that, without subsidies paid directly to farmers, output of some emission-intensive activities and agricultural emissions would be smaller. Without agricultural trade protection, however, emissions would be higher. This is partly because protection reduces global demand more than it increases global agricultural supply, and partly because some countries that currently tax agriculture have high emission intensities. Policies that directly reduce emission intensities yield much larger reductions in emissions than those that reduce emission intensities by increasing overall productivity because overall productivity growth creates a rebound effect by reducing product prices and expanding output. A key challenge is designing policy reforms that effectively reduce emissions without jeopardizing other key goals such as improving nutrition and reducing poverty. While the scenario analysis in this paper does not propose any particular policy reform, it does provide an important building block towards a full understanding the impacts of repurposed agricultural support measures on mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to climate change. That full analysis is being undertaken in subsequent work, which will also take account of land-use change and alternative forms of agricultural policy support to align objectives of food security, farmers’ income security, production efficiency and resilience, and environmental protection.