Introduction to decision analysis. Probability. Revision of probalities. Utility. Procedures for decision analysis. Production under risk. Whole-farm planning under risk. Investment appraisal. Decision anlysis with preferences unknown.

Risk and uncertainty are inescapable factors in agriculture which require careful management. Farmers face production risks from the weather, crop and livestock performance, and pests and diseases, as well as institutional, personal and business risks. This revised third edition of the popular textbook includes updated chapters on theory and methods and contains a new chapter discussing the state-contingent approach to the analysis of production and the use of copulas to better model stochastic dependency. Aiming to introduce agricultural decision making, probability and risk preference, this book is an indispensable guide for students and researchers of agriculture and agribusiness management.

Risk and uncertainty are inescapable factors in agriculture which require careful management. Farmers face production risks from the weather, crop and livestock performance, and pests and diseases, as well as institutional, personal and business risks. This revised third edition of the popular textbook includes updated chapters on theory and methods and contains a new chapter discussing the state-contingent approach to the analysis of production and the use of copulas to better model stochastic dependency. Aiming to introduce agricultural decision making, probability and risk preference, this.

This book presents the Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) paradigm for modelling agricultural decision-making in three parts. The first part, comprising two chapters, is philosophical in nature and deals with the concepts that define the underlying structure of the MCDM paradigm. The second part is the largest part consisting of five chapters, each of which presents the logic of a specific MCDM technique, and demonstrates how it can be used to model a particular decision problem. In the final part, some selected applications of the MCDM techniques to agricultural problems are presented and thus reinforce the development of an understanding of the MCDM paradigm.The book has been designed for use at different levels: as a textbook for final year undergraduate and postgraduate courses in modelling for decision-making; as a manual for researchers and practising modellers; and, as general reference on the application of MCDM techniques. Readers with basic appreciation of algebra and linear programming can easily follow the contents of this book.