This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.

July 1995 Time series estimates can provide an accurate picture of past behavioral relations, but they are not an adequate basis for forecasting the impact of policy reform. They typically generate a downward-biased estimate of the response to a credible reform. Schiff and Montenegro review several studies of the aggregate agricultural supply response. Using both economic and econometric reasons, they argue that time series estimation typically generates a downward-biased estimate of the response to a credible reform. Even though time series estimates can provide an accurate picture of past behavioral relations, they do not provide an adequate basis for forecasting the impact of policy reform. This is especially true in developing countries, where policy reforms involve large changes and have included agricultural price reform, industrial trade liberalization, financial sector reform, and macroeconomic stabilization. Under those circumstances, parameter values obtained under the former policy regime have little relevance in the new regime. Schiff and Montenegro also argue that investments in public goods should be viewed as complementary to, not competitive with, price policy. They claim that to select the policy with the biggest impact on output makes no sense. They provide what they consider to be better criteria for choosing the best from alternative policies. This paper--a product of the International Trade Division, International Economics Department--is part of a larger effort in the department to understand the impact of policy reforms.

Time series estimates can provide an accurate picture of past behavioral relations, but they are not an adequate basis for forecasting the impact of policy reform. They typically generate a downward-biased estimate of the response to a credible reform.Schiff and Montenegro review several studies of the aggregate agricultural supply response.Using both economic and econometric reasons, they argue that time series estimation typically generates a downward-biased estimate of the response to a credible reform.Even though time series estimates can provide an accurate picture of past behavioral relations, they do not provide an adequate basis for forecasting the impact of policy reform. This is especially true in developing countries, where policy reforms involve large changes and have included agricultural price reform, industrial trade liberalization, financial sector reform, and macroeconomic stabilization.Under those circumstances, parameter values obtained under the former policy regime have little relevance in the new regime.Schiff and Montenegro also argue that investments in public goods should be viewed as complementary to, not competitive with, price policy.They claim that to select the policy with the biggest impact on output makes no sense. They provide what they consider to be better criteria for choosing the best from alternative policies.This paper - a product of the International Trade Division, International Economics Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to understand the impact of policy reforms.

This book presents the basic model of an agricultural household that underlies most of the case studies undertaken so far. The model assumes that households are price-takers and is therefore recursive. The decisions modeled include those affecting production and the demand for inputs and those affecting consumption and the supply of labor. Comparative results on selected elasticities are presented for a number of economies. The empirical significance of the approach is demonstrated in a comparison of models that treat production and consumption decisions separately and those in which the decisionmaking process is recursive. The book summarizes the implications of agricultural pricing policy for the welfare of farm households, marketed surplus, the demand for nonagricultural goods and services, the rural labor market, budget revenues, and foreign exchange earnings. In addition, it is shown that the basic model can be extended in order to explore the effects of government policy on crop composition, nutritional status, health, saving, and investment and to provide a more comprehensive analysis of the effects on budget revenues and foreign exchange earnings. Methodological topics, primarily the data requirements of the basic model and its extensions, along with aggregation, market interaction, uncertainty, and market imperfections are discussed. The most important methodological issues - the question of the recursive property of these models - is also discussed.

A joint FAO and World Bank study which shows how the farming systems approach can be used to identify priorities for the reduction of hunger and poverty in the main farming systems of the six major developing regions of the world.

First Published in 2003. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.