If you aren't using the term naturalistic decision making, or NDM, you soon will be. Even as a very young field, NDM has already had far-reaching applications in areas as diverse as management, aviation, health care, nuclear power, military command and control, corporate teamwork, and manufacturing. Put simply, NDM is the way people use their experience to make decisions in the context of a job or task. Of particular interest to NDM researchers are the effects of high-stake consequences, shifting goals, incomplete information, time pressure, uncertainty, and other conditions that are present in most of today's work places and that add to the complexity of decision making. Applications of NDM research findings target decision aids and training that help people in their decision-making processes. This book reports the findings of top NDM researchers, as well as many of their current applications. In addition, the book offers a historical perspective on the emergence of this new paradigm, describes recent theoretical and methodological advancements, and points to future developments. It was written for people interested in decision making research and applications relative to a diverse array of work settings and products such as human-computer interfaces, decision support systems, individual and team training, product designs, and organizational development and planning.

With so many terms available to define the same thing, it would seem nearly irresponsible to introduce yet another term (complex situation) to describe a phenomenological state of such as a system. However, a complex situation infers both a broader meaning and imposes a different perspective. Complex in this context is dependent on understanding and reality rather than observer and knowledge. Situation imposes a gestalt that cannot be characterized within a singular perspective that relegates paradox to a superior/subordinate hierarchy. This also infers that complex situation has no monotonic definition or each definition is by default incomplete. Therefore the perennial derivations for systems such as complex systems, system of systems, federation of systems is no longer a sufficient descriptor for complex situation. Ergo system and its genealogy lack the constitution to define complex situations. The books' intent is to explore this pathology through a series of papers written by authors that work in complex situations and have dealt with the limitations of the status quo: systems.

"A Critical Decision Method (CDM) has been developed for knowledge elicitation. The CDM, an extension of the critical incident technique, includes protocol analysis and memory recall tasks to study cognitive performance. A set of probes is employed to trace the development of situation assessment during critical incidents, and to determine the decision strategies used. The outputs of the method include inventories of the critical cues, graphic portrayals of the situation assessment process, and categorization of the decision strategies. Thus far, the method has been used with a variety of decisions and appears especially well suited to studying cognitive performance in naturalistic settings. It also appears valuable for addressing the highly skilled decision maker, and for eliciting the analytical and perceptual bases of proficient performance. Applications have been made for training, decision support systems, and the development and evaluation of knowledge based systems." -- Abstract.

A Critical Decision Method (CDM) has been developed for knowledge elicitation. The CDM, an extension of the critical incident technique, includes protocol analysis and memory recall tasks to study cognitive performance. A set of probes is employed to trace the development of situation assessment during critical incidents, and to determine the decision strategies used. The outputs of the method include inventories of the critical cues, graphic portrayals of the situation assessment process, and categorization of the decision strategies. Thus far, the method has been used with a variety of decisions and appears especially well suited to studying cognitive performance in naturalistic settings. It also appears valuable for addressing the highly skilled decision maker, and for eliciting the analytical and perceptual bases of proficient performance. Applications have been made for training, decision support systems, and the development and evaluation of knowledge based systems. Keywords: Knowledge elicitation, Decision making, Situation assessment, Knowledge engineering, Expertise.

This monograph reviews 3 years of research that explores how experienced personnel make decisions in operational settings characterized by real-time information processing, shifting goals, and high-risk consequences. The study combined field studies with experiments designed to test specific hypotheses. Study domains were selected so that findings would have high potential for generalizing to military command-and-control decision making. Researchers carried out critical decision interviews with experienced personnel, including urban fire ground commanders, wildland fire incident commanders, and U.S. Army tank platoon leaders. Interviews were designed to elicit information about the cues, goals, and option evaluation strategies used by these personnel. Based on these interviews, the relationships among such factors as time pressure, experience level, and group interactions were explored. The results of these studies have been used to develop a Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) model of decision making. This model contrasts with current normative and prescriptive models of decision making, and the implications of this alternative framework are explored.