Back in the early 1990s, economists and policy makers had high expectations about the prospects for domestic capital market development in emerging economies, particularly in Latin America. Unfortunately, they are now faced with disheartening results. Stock and bond markets remain illiquid and segmented. Debt is concentrated at the short end of the maturity spectrum and denominated in foreign currency, exposing countries to maturity and currency risk. Capital markets in Latin America look particularly underdeveloped when considering the many efforts undertaken to improve the macroeconomic environment and to reform the institutions believed to foster capital market development. The disappointing performance has made conventional policy recommendations questionable, at best. 'Emerging Capital Markets and Globalization' analyzes where we stand and where we are heading on capital market development. First, it takes stock of the state and evolution of Latin American capital markets and related reforms over time and relative to other countries. Second, it analyzes the factors related to the development of capital markets, with particular interest on measuring the impact of reforms. And third, in light of this analysis, it discusses the prospects for capital market development in Latin America and emerging economies and the implications for the reform agenda.

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Along several dimensions, a measure of the financial integration of equity markets yields results consistent with prior assumptions about the relationship between effective integration, explicit capital controls, capital market development, and economic growth.If equity markets are financially integrated, the price of risk should be the same across markets. If the markets are not financially integrated - possibly because of barriers to capital flows across markets - the price of risk may differ across markets.Korajczyk investigates one measure of financial integration between equity markets. He uses a multifactor equilibrium Arbitrage Pricing Theory to define risk and to measure deviations from the law of one price. He applies the integration measure to equities traded in 24 countries (four developed, and 20 emerging).The measure of market segmentation tends to be much larger for emerging markets than for developed markets, which is consistent with larger barriers to capital flows into or out of the emerging markets. The measure tends to decrease over time, which is consistent with growing levels of integration.Large values of adjusted mispricing occur around periods of economic turbulence and periods in which capital controls change significantly. So, the adjusted mispricing estimates measure not only the level of deviation from the law of one price, but also the revaluations inherent in moving from one regime to another.This paper - a product of the Finance and Private Sector Development Division, Policy Research Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to study stock market development. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Stock Market Development and Financial Intermediary Growth (RPO 678-37).

June 1995 Along several dimensions, a measure of the financial integration of equity markets yields results consistent with prior assumptions about the relationship between effective integration, explicit capital controls, capital market development, and economic growth. If equity markets are financially integrated, the price of risk should be the same across markets. If the markets are not financially integrated--possibly because of barriers to capital flows across markets--the price of risk may differ across markets. Korajczyk investigates one measure of financial integration between equity markets. He uses a multifactor equilibrium Arbitrage Pricing Theory to define risk and to measure deviations from the law of one price. He applies the integration measure to equities traded in 24 countries (four developed, and 20 emerging). The measure of market segmentation tends to be much larger for emerging markets than for developed markets, which is consistent with larger barriers to capital flows into or out of the emerging markets. The measure tends to decrease over time, which is consistent with growing levels of integration. Large values of adjusted mispricing occur around periods of economic turbulence and periods in which capital controls change significantly. So, the adjusted mispricing estimates measure not only the level of deviation from the law of one price, but also the revaluations inherent in moving from one regime to another. This paper--a product of the Finance and Private Sector Development Division, Policy Research Department--is part of a larger effort in the department to study stock market development. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Stock Market Development and Financial Intermediary Growth (RPO 678-37).

A comprehensive reference work presenting an original framework for evaluating observed differences in returns across assets.

This paper discusses the extent to which national capital markets have become linked, and identifies several of the more important consequences of that increased degree of integration. Alternative approaches to the measurement of capital market integration are reviewed, including deviations from the law of one price, differences between actual and optimally diversified portfolios, correlations between domestic investment and domestic saving, and cross-country links in consumption behavior. Two recent episodes of large-scale international capital flows—namely, the turmoil in the European Monetary System in the fall of 1992, and the surge of capital inflows into Latin America during the last three years—are examined for insights into the workings of today’s global capital market. Finally, the paper offers some concluding remarks on the future development of international capital markets, on exchange rate management, on alternative approaches to living with larger and more influential financial markets, and on the financing of investment in the formerly centrally planned economies.