This study has been undertaken to understand and evaluate the potential negative consequences of export taxes which are implemented by many countries today and which are not disciplined by any international agreement. This paper uses a new detailed global dataset on export taxes at the HS6 (Harmonized System 6 level) level and the MIRAGE (Modeling International Relationships in Applied General Equilibrium) global computable general equilibrium model to assess the impact of export taxes on the world economy. We find that limitations on export taxes would have worldwide effects: the average export tax on global merchandise trade was 0.48 percent in 2007, with the bulk of these taxes imposed on energy products. The removal of these taxes would increase global welfare by 0.23 percent, which is a larger figure than the expected gains from the World Trade Organization’s Doha Development Round. Both developed and emerging economies, such as China and India, would gain from such policies, even if they currently impose export taxes. Medium and small food-importing countries without market power (such as the least-developed countries) would also benefit from the elimination of export restrictions, especially during food crisis situations. Both the energy sector and the export taxes implemented by Commonwealth of Independent States countries appear to play a critical role in the overall economic impact of such a policy change. However, the fact that some countries, such as Argentina, would experience income losses due to such a policy change is a major challenge to overall positive reform in this area.

This publication displays the menu for choice of available methods to evaluate the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). It caters mainly to policy makers from developing countries and aims to equip them with some economic knowledge and techniques that will enable them to conduct their own economic evaluation studies on existing or future FTAs, or to critically re-examine the results of impact assessment studies conducted by others, at the very least.

This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.

Despite years of development interventions, agricultural productivity in Africa south of the Sahara still trails far behind all other continents, leaving many rural populations in dire poverty. This suggests that our understanding of the impacts of agricultural development projects is still imperfect; perfecting it is likely to be a crucial step in achieving development. Projects that raise agricultural productivity, in addition to directly affecting farmers, can have an impact on local prices, wages, and rents, especially in rural areas of Africa, which tend to be less-than-perfectly integrated with outside markets. Price changes, in turn, transmit project impacts to others within the local economy. This paper presents the findings of a local economywide impact evaluation of Feed the Future irrigation projects in the Morogoro region of Tanzania, using a local economy-wide impact evaluation (LEWIE) simulation model. The findings indicate that these irrigation projects can generate important indirect impacts within the region. The structure of local markets, as well as labor and land availability, shapes project spillovers in ways that point to future directions for development assistance in the region.

The second annual Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor assesses emerging and long-term trends and drivers shaping Africa’s trade in agricultural products and evaluates the possible impacts of current trade tensions. The 2019 report focuses on intraregional trade and competitiveness, with chapters on measuring regional trade integration and competitiveness of agriculture, a feature chapter on the potential impact of global trade tensions, and an in-depth look at trade integration in the Eastern and Southern Africa region.

Vietnam is likely to be among the countries hardest hit by climate change, threatening its legacy as a champion in leveraging agriculture for development. This paper examines how a changing climate may affect rice production and how Vietnamese farmers are likely to adapt to various climatic conditions using an innovative yield function approach, taking into account sample selection bias and endogeneity of inputs. Model results suggest that although climate change can potentially reduce rice production, farmers will respond mainly by adjusting the production portfolio and levels of input use. However, investments in rural infrastructure and human capital will have to support farmers in the adaptation process if production levels and farm incomes are to be sustained in the future.