The Florida Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens) is an indicator of ecosystem integrity of Florida scrub, an endangered ecosystem that requires frequent fire. One of the largest populations of this federally threatened species occurs on John F. Kennedy Space Center/Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge. Population trends were predicted using population modeling and field data on reproduction and survival of Florida Scrub-Jays collected from 1988 - 1995. Analyses of historical photography indicated that habitat suitability has been declining for 30 years. Field data and computer simulations suggested that the population declined by at least 40% and will decline by another 40% in 1 0 years, if habitat management is not greatly intensified. Data and computer simulations suggest that habitat suitability cannot deviate greatly from optimal for the jay population to persist. Landscape trajectories of vegetation structure, responsible for declining habitat suitability, are associated with the disruption of natural fire regimes. Prescribed fire alone can not reverse the trajectories. A recovery strategy was developed, based on studies of Florida Scrub-Jays and scrub vegetation. A reserve design was formulated based on conservation science principles for scrub ecosystems. The strategy emphasizes frequent fire to restore habitat, but includes mechanical tree cutting for severely degraded areas. Pine thinning across large areas can produce rapid increases in habitat quality. Site-specific strategies will need to be developed, monitored, and modified to achieve conditions suitable for population persistence. Breininger, D. R. and Larson, V. L. and Schaub, R. and Duncan, B. W. and Schmalzer, P. A. and Oddy, D. M. and Smith, R. B. and Adrian, F. and Hill, H., Jr. Kennedy Space Center COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION; ECOSYSTEMS; ENDANGERED SPECIES; MERRITT ISLAND (FL); CAPE KENNEDY LAUNCH COMPLEX; HABITATS; POPULATIONS; BIRDS; FOREST FIRES; SITE SELECTION; ENVIRONMENT EFFECTS; FOREST MAN...

From 1988 to 2002 we studied the breeding ecology of Florida Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens) on John F. Kennedy Space Center/Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge. We examined phenology, clutch size, hatching failure rates, fledgling production, nest success, predation rates, sources egg and nestling mortality, and the effects of helpers on these measures. Nesting phenology was similar among sites. Mean clutch size at Titan was significantly larger than at HC or T4. Pairs with helpers did not produce larger clutches than pairs without helpers. Fledgling production at T4 was significantly greater than at HC and similar to Titan. Pairs with helpers at HC produced significantly more fledglings than pairs without helpers; helpers did not influence fledgling production at the other sites. Nest success at HC and Titan was low, 19% and 32% respectively. Nest success at T4 was 48% and was significantly greater than at HC. Average predation rates at all sites increased with season progression. Predation rates at all sight rose sharply by early June. The main cause of nest failure at all sites was predation, 93%.