Literature Review from the year 2012 in the subject Politics - Region: Far East, grade: 1,0, University of Freiburg (Seminar für Wissenschaftliche Politik), course: Hauptseminar Democracy and Development: A Comparative Asian Perspective, language: English, abstract: The question whether China will or will not follow a path of democratic reforms in the near future has been repeatedly asked by many scholars over the last years, even decades. Since the beginning of China's economic reforms and development, modernisation theorists have always been in the front-line when it came down to predicting the country's soon-to-come political liberalisation. However, after decades of contradictory results of quantitative studies on the alleged causal relationship between economic development and democracy, there is growing consent to Seymour Martin Lipset’s statement that “[w]hether democracy succeeds or fails continues to depend significantly on the choices, behaviors, and decisions of political leaders and groups” (Lipset 1994: 18). Completely in line with what the German political scientist Wolfgang Muno describes as the “need for qualitative analyses of [...] important actors, concepts and strategies” (Muno 2001: 50) in the debate about democracy and development, Rey-Ching Lu’s recently published book “Chinese democracy and elite thinking” focuses upon the ideas and convictions of a few members of the mainland’s elite, from which he draws conclusions about China’s political development in the next couple of years. The underlying assumption is that, contrary to many Western theorists’ beliefs, it is neither the middle class nor the economic liberalisation in itself that will spark democracy ‘from the bottom’, but rather the changing attitudes of the more and more globalised social elite that will eventually lead to a top-down process of political reform and liberalisation. This book review focuses on the most important aspects of Lu’s methodological approach and line of argument. After a presentation of his methodological proceeding, the main findings and conclusions of Lu’s study will be described and discussed. Then, a critical assessment of the author’s arguments will be made, also considering other scholars’ views on the issues of China’s possible democratization and the role of its elites in this process.

A monarch is usually born, a member of parliament or a president is usually elected, but a regional leader in China is usually orchestrated to replace his or her predecessor through an opaque process and for reasons not normally made public. The professional trajectories of Chinese regional leaders are mysterious in many ways. Their promotions and demotions can be "predictable" in terms of their age, gender, nationality, education, factions, and previous engagements in the political system. Yet, speaking of their capability, performance, opportunities and arrangements, their future can also be "unexpected". Such arrangements are always originated from the Organization (zuzhi) which represents the Chinese Communist Party. What are the factors the organization considers in order to make its final decisions on nominating and appointing a regional leader? Today’s regional leaders of China will very likely become the central leaders of China in the future. By making an empirical analysis of Chinese regional leaders’ political mobility, Qiao establishes a descriptive political mobility model that reveals leadership trajectories in Chinese politics.

Predictions of the coming collapse of Chinese politics are today commonplace, however this thought-provoking book explores a radically different alternative. China, it argues, is a one-party-dominated political system whose surprising levels of public support and resilience in the face of serious economic, environmental and social problems suggest that it is more durable than most outside observers suppose. China is not an ailing 'autocracy', a case of 'crony capitalism' or a blindly repressive 'authoritarian regime'. The rulers of China are in fact experimenting with a wide range of locally-made democratic tools designed to win the trust and loyalty of their subjects. Examples probed in this book include the injection of accountability mechanisms into state bureaucracy, the toleration of independent public opinion leaders, the growing reliance of Party officials and corporate executives on public opinion polls and 'democratic style', and the calculated use by Party officials of digitally networked media as early warning devices.Written for students and teachers, researchers and general readers fascinated by the rising global power of China, When Trees Fall, Monkeys Scatter shows why locally-made democratic practices often favour one-party rule and why China is becoming a globally significant political laboratory: a 21st century testing ground for a new type of top-down popular government at odds with power-sharing democracy as it was known during the past generation.

Leading experts on China offer their enlightening analysis on one of the most crucial and complex questions facing the future of international politics. Moving toward open markets and international trade has brought extraordinary economic success to China, yet its leadership still maintains an authoritarian grip over its massive population. From repressing political movements to controlling internet traffic, China’s undemocratic policies present an attractive model for other authoritarian regimes. But can China continue its growth without political reform? In Will China Democratize?, Andrew J. Nathan, Larry Diamond, and Marc F. Plattner present valuable analysis for anyone wondering if, when or how China might evolve politically. Since the Journal of Democracy’s very first issue in January 1990, which featured articles reflecting on the then-recent Tiananmen Square massacre, the Journal has regularly published articles about China and its politics. By bringing together the wide spectrum of views that have appeared in the Journal’s pages—from contributors including Fang Lizhi, Perry Link, Michel Oksenberg, Minxin Pei, Henry S. Rowen, and Nobel laureate Liu Xiaobo— Will China Democratize? provides a clear view of the complex forces driving change in China’s regime and society.

Tells the story of the growing Chinese Navy - The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) - and its expanding capabilities, evolving roles and military implications for the USA. Divided into four thematic sections, this special collection of essays surveys and analyzes the most important aspects of China's navel modernization.

Will China become a multiparty democracy? The author posits that the more that Chinese elite thinking on China's development and change reconciles the tension between Chinese nationalism and collectivist, family-like ethics on the one hand, and the western democratic ideals based on each self-seeking individual's subjectivity on the other hand, the greater the chance that China's political development will lead to a multiparty democracy. The author projects that within the next twenty years China will march on the path of democratization.