The conservation of Earth's forest ecosystems is one of the great environmental challenges facing humanity in the 21st century. This volume explores these themes through a landscape-wide study of refugia and future climate in the tall, wet forests of the Central Highlands of Victoria.

The conservation of Earth's forest ecosystems is one of the great environmental challenges facing humanity in the 21st century. All of Earth's ecosystems now face the spectre of the accelerated greenhouse effect and rates of change in climatic regimes that have hitherto been unknown. In addition, multiple use forestry – where forests are managed to provide for both a supply of wood and the conservation of biodiversity – can change the floristic composition and vegetation structure of forests with significant implications for wildlife habitat. Wildlife, fire and future climate: a forest ecosystem analysis explores these themes through a landscape-wide study of refugia and future climate in the tall, wet forests of the Central Highlands of Victoria. It represents a model case study for the kind of integrated investigation needed throughout the world in order to deal with the potential response of terrestrial ecological systems to global change. The analyses presented in this book represent one of the few ecosystem studies ever undertaken that has attempted such a complex synthesis of fire, wildlife, vegetation, and climate. Wildlife, fire and future climate: a forest ecosystem analysis is written by an experienced team of leading world experts in fire ecology, modelling, terrain and climate analysis, vegetation and wildlife habitat. Their collaboration on this book represents a unique and exemplary, multi-disciplinary venture.

"Frightening...Firestorm comes alive when Struzik discusses the work of offbeat scientists." —New York Times Book Review "Comprehensive and compelling." —Booklist "A powerful message." —Kirkus "Should be required reading." —Library Journal For two months in the spring of 2016, the world watched as wildfire ravaged the Canadian town of Fort McMurray. Firefighters named the fire “the Beast.” It acted like a mythical animal, alive with destructive energy, and they hoped never to see anything like it again. Yet it’s not a stretch to imagine we will all soon live in a world in which fires like the Beast are commonplace. A glance at international headlines shows a remarkable increase in higher temperatures, stronger winds, and drier lands– a trifecta for igniting wildfires like we’ve rarely seen before. This change is particularly noticeable in the northern forests of the United States and Canada. These forests require fire to maintain healthy ecosystems, but as the human population grows, and as changes in climate, animal and insect species, and disease cause further destabilization, wildfires have turned into a potentially uncontrollable threat to human lives and livelihoods. Our understanding of the role fire plays in healthy forests has come a long way in the past century. Despite this, we are not prepared to deal with an escalation of fire during periods of intense drought and shorter winters, earlier springs, potentially more lightning strikes and hotter summers. There is too much fuel on the ground, too many people and assets to protect, and no plan in place to deal with these challenges. In Firestorm, journalist Edward Struzik visits scorched earth from Alaska to Maine, and introduces the scientists, firefighters, and resource managers making the case for a radically different approach to managing wildfire in the 21st century. Wildfires can no longer be treated as avoidable events because the risk and dangers are becoming too great and costly. Struzik weaves a heart-pumping narrative of science, economics, politics, and human determination and points to the ways that we, and the wilder inhabitants of the forests around our cities and towns, might yet flourish in an age of growing megafires.

Climate change is fundamentally changing ecosystems and their fire conditions, and the 2023 fire season highlighted the urgency of developing and implementing solutions to address wildland fires. Wildland fires transfer carbon between the land and the atmosphere through emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), along with other gasses and particles. Though fires can be a natural part of healthy, evolving ecosystems, large, uncontrolled wildland fires can have devastating consequences to human health, communities, and biodiversity. Human-driven changes in wildland fire regimes have the potential to increase GHG emissions at a scale that could inhibit global efforts to achieve net-zero GHG emissions in the coming decades. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop on September 13-15, 2023, to identify opportunities to improve measurements and model projections of GHG emissions from wildland fires and discuss management practices that could be incorporated into current and future action plans. Participants emphasized the importance of learning from historic and current Indigenous fire management practices and centering Indigenous voices and leadership across all stages of fire management. Different global ecosystems - particularly temperate, boreal, and tropical biomes - have been impacted by climate and land use changes where historical fire regimes and the carbon balance have been disrupted. However, discussions highlighted the diverse set of available regionally differentiated and ecosystem-appropriate mitigation strategies. With improved understanding of fires and their GHG emissions, better information for mitigation and management, and incorporation of wildfire GHG emissions into national accounting mechanisms, practitioners, communities, and decision makers will be better equipped to prepare, adapt, and respond to future wildland fires.

Anthropogenic climate change has shifted forest fire regimes in the Pacific Northwest U.S by increasing wildfire frequency and area burned and the shift is projected to continue during the 21st century if temperature and summertime aridity continually increase. Such changes threaten natural resources in these systems, including drinking water reservoirs, which could see reduced water quality during post-fire recovery. Productive forests with historically flammability-limited wildfire regimes are susceptible to large-scale high-severity events because of large fuel sinks; therefore, as flammability increases with climate change, the frequency of these events is also expected to increase. However, it is unclear how climate change and wildfire will alter long-term fuel availability in these forests; if a strong fuel limitation develops, it could potentially offset increases in fuel flammability. Herein, we apply RHESSys-WMFire, a process-based ecohydrological framework coupled with a stochastic fire-spread model and a post-fire effects model, to explore the long-term coevolution of climate, vegetation, and wildfire in a historically climate-limited forest in the western cascades as it responds to two future climate scenarios: (1) one that enforces extreme fire-weather, and (2) one that is less arid and more suitable for forest production. Both scenarios feature three 525-year climate sequences to capture the co-evolution of vegetation and fire behavior for three stable climate regimes: the present, near future (2040s), and distant future (2070s). Each sequence was constructed from 30 years of climate data from existing CMIP5 GCM using a randomized climate resampling technique. We found both climate storylines forced a fuel limitation that increased during the 21st-century; however, increases in fuel flammability were greater, and resulted in increases in wildfire size, frequency, and area burned in near and distant future relative to the present. The severity of fuel limitation also corresponded with shifts in the fire-size distribution and the fire recurrence interval of different elevations, wherein strong fuel limitation caused relatively smaller fires and lower frequency. We surmise that reduced fuel availability will scale with the severity of climate forcing; however, in forests where fuel flammability is presently low, it will begin to limit wildfire behavior until a certain threshold has been reached.

Although ecosystems, humans, and fire have coexisted for millennia, changes in geology, ecology, hydrology, and climate as well as sociocultural, regulatory, and economic factors have converged to make wildland fire management exceptionally challenging for U.S. federal, state, and local authorities. Given the mounting, unsustainable costs and difficulty translating existing wildland fire science into policy, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine organized a 1-day workshop to focus on how a century of wildland fire research can contribute to improving wildland fire management. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.

The catastrophic runaway wildfires advancing through North America and other parts of the world are not unprecedented. Fires loomed large once human activity began to warm the climate in the 1820s, leading to an aggressive firefighting strategy that has left many of the continent’s forests too old and vulnerable to the fires that many tree species need to regenerate. Dark Days at Noon provides a broad history of wildfire in North America, from before European contact to the present, in the hopes that we may learn from how we managed fire in the past, and apply those lessons in the future. As people continue to move into forested landscapes to work, play, live, and ignite fires – intentionally or unintentionally – fire has begun to take its toll, burning entire towns, knocking out utilities, closing roads, and forcing the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people. Fire management in North America requires attention and cooperation from both sides of the border, and many of the most significant fires have taken place at the boundary line. Despite a clear lack of urgency among political leaders, Edward Struzik argues that wildfire science needs to guide the future of fire management, and that those same leaders need to shape public perception accordingly. By explaining how society’s misguided response to fire has led to our current situation, Dark Days at Noon warns of what may happen in the future if we do not learn to live with fire as the continent’s Indigenous Peoples once did.