Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2010 in the subject Business economics - General, grade: 1,3, University of Applied Sciences Northwestern Switzerland, language: English, abstract: The Efficient market hypothesis can be considered as part of rational economics but it does not specify at all how individuals should or will act. Therefore it might be a useful model of the functioning of the market as a whole but it does not explain the behaviors of investors as well as managers and other participants. While the Efficient market hypothesis deals as a basis for understanding the normal working of the markets, from time to time it might happen that the market as a whole or an individual stock may act irrationally. Such behavior is well known and generally occurs when the market price of a share turns away from its intrinsic value. The result is what commonly is called a bubble. This term is often used but the reasons for the occurrence are quite unclear. In fact, at the same time as the market as a whole has become more efficient, instances of irrationality have become more common or at least appear to be. Therefore we try to discuss the question why capital markets, which are considered as efficient and perfect in theory, are volatile and imperfect in reality. The paper responds to this question by discussing mainly the irrational behavior of people by turning into the field of psychology. Furthermore it seeks for approaches of explanation conducted by different investment strategies containing among others an increased use of derivative instruments or single trades based on massive capacity which therefore influence prices. Methodology and Structure of the paper In general the paper can be divided in 3 parts, a theoretical as well as an analytical one and a final point the Conclusion (Part C) which sums up the basic findings of the paper. Whereas Part A can be regarded as delivering the theoretical background, Part B contains the empirical analysis based on several case studies. Chapter 1, 2 and 3 are providing the reader with the needed knowledge of the capital market, volatility and the efficient market hypothesis in order to assure the understanding of the more complex prosecution of the paper After discussing those fundamentals the paper soon takes a view on some instances of irrationality in Part B, but first of all delivers in Chapter 4, 5 and 6 some theories that attempt to explain such irrationalities. Finally the paper is finished by linking those theories with the observed instances of irrationality

The definitive source of information on all topics related to investment valuation tools and techniques Valuation is at the heart of any investment decision, whether that decision is buy, sell or hold. But the pricing of many assets has become a more complex task in modern markets, especially after the recent financial crisis. In order to be successful at this endeavor, you must have a firm understanding of the proper valuation techniques. One valuation book stands out as withstanding the test of time among investors and students of financial markets, Aswath Damodaran'sInvestment Valuation. Now completely revised and updated to reflect changing market conditions, this third edition comprehensively introduces investment professionals and students to the range of valuation models available and how to chose the right model for any given asset valuation scenario. This edition includes valuation techniques for a whole host of real options, start-up firms, unconventional assets, distressed companies and private equity, and real estate. All examples have been updated and new material has been added. Fully revised to incorporate valuation lessons learned from the last five years, from the market crisis and emerging markets to new types of equity investments Includes valuation practices across the life cycle of companies and emphasizes value enhancement measures, such as EVA and CFROI Contains a new chapter on probabilistic valuation techniques such as decision trees and Monte Carlo Simulation Author Aswath Damodaran is regarded as one of the best educators and thinkers on the topic of investment valuation This indispensable guide is a must read for anyone wishing to gain a better understanding of investment valuation and its methods. With it, you can take the insights and advice of a recognized authority on the valuation process and immediately put them to work for you.

"The process by which securities are traded is very different from the idealized picture of a frictionless and self-equilibrating market offered by the typical finance textbook. This book offers a more accurate and authoritative take on this process. The book starts from the assumption that not everyone is present at all times simultaneously on the market, and that participants have quite diverse information about the security's fundamentals. As a result, the order flow is a complex mix of information and noise, and a consensus price only emerges gradually over time as the trading process evolves and the participants interpret the actions of other traders. Thus, a security's actual transaction price may deviate from its fundamental value, as it would be assessed by a fully informed set of investors. The book takes these deviations seriously, and explains why and how they emerge in the trading process and are eventually eliminated. The authors draw on a vast body of theoretical insights and empirical findings on security price formation that have come to form a well-defined field within financial economics known as "market microstructure." Focusing on liquidity and price discovery, the book analyzes the tension between the two, pointing out that when price-relevant information reaches the market through trading pressure rather than through a public announcement, liquidity may suffer. It also confronts many striking phenomena in securities markets and uses the analytical tools and empirical methods of market microstructure to understand them. These include issues such as why liquidity changes over time and differs across securities, why large trades move prices up or down, and why these price changes are subsequently reversed, and why we observe temporary deviations from asset fair values"--

Valuation lies at the heart of much of what we do in finance, whether it is the study of market efficiency and questions about corporate governance or the comparison of different investment decision rules in capital budgeting. In this paper, we consider the theory and evidence on valuation approaches. We begin by surveying the literature on discounted cash flow valuation models, ranging from the first mentions of the dividend discount model to value stocks to the use of excess return models in more recent years. In the second part of the paper, we examine relative valuation models and, in particular, the use of multiples and comparables in valuation and evaluate whether relative valuation models yield more or less precise estimates of value than discounted cash flow models. In the final part of the paper, we set the stage for further research in valuation by noting the estimation challenges we face as companies globalize and become exposed to risk in multiple countries.

The form of ‘reflexivity’ – defined by the dictionary as that which is ‘directed back upon itself’ – that is most relevant to economic methodology is that where observation of the economy leads to ideas that change behavior, which in turn changes (is directed back upon) the economy itself. As George Soros explains: "if investors believe that markets are efficient then that belief will change the way they invest, and that in turn will change the nature of the markets they are observing ... That is the principle of reflexivity". Although various versions of reflexivity have long been discussed, in recent years George Soros has been particularly effective in bringing ideas about reflexivity to the attention of the economic and financial communities. In a series of writings he has systematically argued that reflexivity is not only an important aspect of economic life, it is an aspect that is neglected in most mainstream theorizing; and in addition, that the neglect of reflexivity has been responsible for the failure of economists to predict, explain, or offer a solution for events such as the recent financial crisis. Soros’ ideas about reflexivity have important methodological significance, and his chapter in this book summarizes and clarifies his arguments. His contribution is joined by those of thirteen scholars from a wide range of relevant fields, who provide a commentary on the idea of reflexivity in economics. This book was originally published as a special issue of The Journal of Economic Methodology.

The Efficient Market Hypothesis believes that it is impossible for an investor to outperform the market because all available information is already built into stock prices. However, some anomalies could persist in stock markets while some other anomalies could appear, disappear and re-appear again without any warning. A Special Issue on "Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets" will be devoted to advancements in the theoretical development of market efficiency and anomaly in the Stock Market, as well as applications in Stock Market efficiency and anomalies.

This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.