What follows is a new edition of the second in a series of three books providing an account of the mathematical development of demography. The first, Introduction to the Mathematics of Population (Addison-Wesley, 1968), gave the mathematical background. The second, the original of the present volume, was concerned with demography itself. The third in the sequence, Mathematics Through Problems (with John Beekman; Springer Verlag, 1982), supplemented the first two with an ordered sequence of problems and answers. Readers interested in the mathematics may consult the earlier book, republished with revisions by Addison-Wesley in 1977 and still in print. There is no overlap in subject matter between Applied Mathematical Demography and the Introduction to the Mathematics of Population. Three new chapters have been added, dealing with matters that have come recently into the demographic limelight: multi-state calculations, family demogra phy, and heterogeneity. vii PREFACE This book is concerned with commonsense questions about, for instance, the effect of a lowered death rate on the proportion of old people or the effect of abortions on the birth rate. The answers that it reaches are not always commonsense, and we will meet instances in which intuition has to be adjusted to accord with what the mathematics shows to be the case.

A basic model in population age structure is studied and then applied and extended to several population phenomena.

This book is an amended and somewhat shorter version of my doctoral thesis which I submitted to the Australian National University in 1976, and subsequently edited at the Netherlands Interuniversity Demographic Institute in 1977. The work falls naturally into two parts. The first is concerned with the construction and validation of a model, and the second with its application as an experimental tool. In the first part, comprising Chapters One to Four, an examination of historical and contemporary models of population growth led to the decision to study changes in fertility by means of a biological micro simulation model. The reasons supporting the choice of such a model were discussed, and a search of the literature produced the data to be used as model input. The effects of varying the input were examined and then the model output was tested against Hutterite data. The main emphasis of the second part of the work, comprising Chapters Five to Seven, was the testing of the effect on the fertility of one society of variations in the duration of the post partum period of non-susceptibility to conception, and in the level of infant and child mortality. Further simulations were performed to discover the impact on fertility of the use of contraception to attain different family sizes, both with and without the additional effect of infant and child mortality.