The Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU) is working on a four-year project (2010-2013) on the subject of Korean unification. The objective of this project is to propose a grand plan for Korean unification. The Unification Forum series is one of the tasks of this project. Last year the purpose of the forums was to review the positions of neighboring countries on Korean unification. The result of the forums has been compiled into a book titled Korean Unification and the Neighboring Powers (Seoul: Neulpum, 2010). This year the forums have focused on US-China relations and their implications for Korean unification. These forums are also intended to serve as a channel to deliver our unification vision to the international community. This year’s fifth forum, held on November 16th, was oriented toward diplomats based in Seoul. KINU invited around thirty diplomats from major embassies, most of them deputy chiefs of mission, to share views and visions of Korean unification. The forum was organized by a planning committee composed of 20 experts on North Korea and international politics. This committee was involved in every aspect of the forum, from selecting speakers and topics for discussion to participating in the discussions and offering policy suggestions. This book is the result of this year’s forums. It is composed of two general papers as well as five forum papers. The first two papers serve as a sort of introduction. “Building a United Korea: Visions, Scenarios, and Challenges” suggests a four-stage unification process which may be the most desirable and feasible approach for South Korea. “Security Dynamism in Northeast Asia: Emerging Confrontation between USROK- Japan vs. China-Russia-DPRK” is an overview of the changing unification environment. Each forum produced one paper, except for the second forum which produced two papers Ⅰ. Korean Unification in an International Context Building a Unified Korea: Visions, Scenarios, and Challenges/ Choi Jinwook Security Dynamics in Northeast Asia: Emerging Confrontation between U.S.-ROK-Japan vs. China-Russia-DPRK?/ Sachio Nakato Ⅱ. The First KINU Unification Forum Beijing’s “Sunshine Policy with Chinese Characteristics”: Implications for Korean Unification/ John S. Park Ⅲ. The Second KINU Unification Forum Uniting Korea: Enduring Dream, Elusive Reality/ Lowell Dittmer Status Quo Reassessed: China’s Shifting Views on Korean Unification/ Fei-Ling Wang Ⅳ. The Third KINU Unification Forum American Grand Strategy toward East Asia and North Korea/ G. John Ikenberry – Discussant: Zhu Feng Ⅴ. The Fourth KINU Unification Forum Beijing, Washington, and the Korean Peninsula/ David M. Lampton

" From cooperation to a new cold war: is this the future for today's two great powers? U.S. policy toward China is at an inflection point. For more than a generation, since the 1970s, a near-consensus view in the United States supported engagement with China, with the aim of integrating China into the U.S.-led international order. By the latter part of the 2010s, that consensus had collapsed as a much more powerful and increasingly assertive China was seen as a strategic rival to theUnited States. How the two countries tackle issues affecting the most important bilateral relationship in the world will significantly shape overall international relations for years to come. In this timely book, leading scholars of U.S.-China relations and China's foreign policy address recent changes in American assessments of China's capabilities and intentions and consider potential risks to international security, the significance of a shifting international distribution of power, problems of misperception, and the risk of conflicts. China's military modernization, its advancing technology, and its Belt and Road Initiative, as well as regional concerns, such as the South China Sea disputes, relations with Japan, and tensions on the Korean Peninsula, receive special focus. "

Against the backdrop of China’s mounting influence and North Korea’s growing nuclear capability and expanding missile arsenal, South Korea faces a set of strategic choices that will shape its economic prospects and national security. In South Korea at the Crossroads, Scott A. Snyder examines the trajectory of fifty years of South Korean foreign policy and offers predictions—and a prescription—for the future. Pairing a historical perspective with a shrewd understanding of today’s political landscape, Snyder contends that South Korea’s best strategy remains investing in a robust alliance with the United States. Snyder begins with South Korea’s effort in the 1960s to offset the risk of abandonment by the United States during the Vietnam War and the subsequent crisis in the alliance during the 1970s. A series of shifts in South Korean foreign relations followed: the “Nordpolitik” engagement with the Soviet Union and China at the end of the Cold War; Kim Dae Jung’s “Sunshine Policy,” designed to bring North Korea into the international community; “trustpolitik,” which sought to foster diplomacy with North Korea and Japan; and changes in South Korea’s relationship with the United States. Despite its rise as a leader in international financial, development, and climate-change forums, South Korea will likely still require the commitment of the United States to guarantee its security. Although China is a tempting option, Snyder argues that only the United States is both credible and capable in this role. South Korea remains vulnerable relative to other regional powers in northeast Asia despite its rising profile as a middle power, and it must balance the contradiction of desirable autonomy and necessary alliance.

With China now South Korea's number one trading partner and destination for foreign investment and tourism, what are the implications for politics and security in East Asia? Scott Snyder explores the transformation of the Sino - South Korean relationship since the early 1990s. Snyder considers the strategic significance of recent developments in China's relationship with both North and South Korea and also assesses the likely consequences of those developments for US and Japanese influence in the region. His meticulous study lends important context to critical debates regarding China''s foreign policy, Northeast Asian security, and international relations more broadly. This title examines China's redefined political and economic relations with North and South Korea, as well as what this implies for US and Japanese influence in Northeast Asia.

This Task Force report comprehensively reviews the situation on the peninsula as well as the options for U.S. policy. It provides a valuable ranking of U.S. interests, and calls for a firm commitment from the Obama administration to seek denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, backed by a combination of sanctions, incentives, and sustained political pressure, in addition to increased efforts to contain proliferation. It notes that China's participation in this effort is vital. Indeed, the report makes clear that any hope of North Korea's dismantling its nuclear program rests on China's willingness to take a strong stance. For denuclearization to proceed, China must acknowledge that the long-term hazard of a nuclear Korea is more perilous to it and the region than the short-term risk of instability. The report also recognizes that robust relations between Washington and its allies in the region, Japan and South Korea, must underpin any efforts to deal with the North Korean problem. It looks as well at regime change and scenarios that could lead to reunification of the peninsula. At the same time that the Task Force emphasizes the danger and urgency of North Korea's behavior, it recognizes and applauds the beneficial U.S. relationship with South Korea, which has proved to be a valuable economic and strategic partner. In this vein, the Task Force advocates continued close coordination with Seoul and urges prompt congressional passage of the U.S.-South Korea free trade agreement.

Nearly half a century after the fighting stopped, the 1953 Armistice has yet to be replaced with a peace treaty formally ending the Korean War. While Russia and China withdrew the last of their forces in 1958, the United States maintains 37,000 troops in South Korea and is pledged to defend it with nuclear weapons. In Korean Endgame, Selig Harrison mounts the first authoritative challenge to this long-standing U.S. policy. Harrison shows why North Korea is not--as many policymakers expect--about to collapse. And he explains why existing U.S. policies hamper North-South reconciliation and reunification. Assessing North Korean capabilities and the motivations that have led to its forward deployments, he spells out the arms control concessions by North Korea, South Korea, and the United States necessary to ease the dangers of confrontation, centering on reciprocal U.S. force redeployments and U.S. withdrawals in return for North Korean pullbacks from the thirty-eighth parallel. Similarly, he proposes specific trade-offs to forestall the North's development of nuclear weapons and missile delivery systems, calling for the withdrawal of the U.S. nuclear umbrella in conjunction with agreements to denuclearize Korea embracing China, Russia, and Japan. The long-term goal of U.S. policy, he argues, should be the full disengagement of U.S. combat forces from Korea as part of regional agreements insulating the peninsula from all foreign conventional and nuclear forces. A veteran journalist with decades of extensive firsthand knowledge of North Korea and long-standing contacts with leaders in Washington, Seoul, and Pyongyang, Harrison is perfectly placed to make these arguments. Throughout, he supports his analysis with revealing accounts of conversations with North Korean, South Korean, and U.S. leaders over thirty-five years. Combining probing scholarship with a seasoned reporter's on-the-ground experience and insights, he has given us the definitive book on U.S. policy in Korea--past, present, and future.