Since the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis began its study of water quality modeling and management in 1977, it has been interested in the relations between uncertainty and the problems of model calibration and prediction. The work has focused on the theme of modeling poorly defined environmental systems, a principal topic of the effort devoted to environmental quality control and management. Accounting for the effects of uncertainty was also of central concern to our two case studies of lake eutrophication management, one dealing with Lake Balaton in Hungary and the other with several Austrian lake systems. Thus, in November 1979 we held a meeting at Laxenburg to discuss recent method ological developments in addressing problems associated with uncertainty and forecasting of water quality. This book is based on the proceedings of that meeting. The last few years have seen an increase in awareness of the issue of uncertainty in water quality and ecological modeling. This book is relevant not only to contemporary issues but also to those of the future. A lack of field data will not always be the dominant problem for water quality modeling and management; more sophisticated measuring techniques and more comprehensive monitoring networks will come to be more widely applied. Rather, the important problems of the future are much more likely to emerge from the enhanced facility of data processing and to concern the meaningful interpretation, assimilation., and use of the information thus obtained.

Probabilistic risk analysis aims to quantify the risk caused by high technology installations. Increasingly, such analyses are being applied to a wider class of systems in which problems such as lack of data, complexity of the systems, uncertainty about consequences, make a classical statistical analysis difficult or impossible. The authors discuss the fundamental notion of uncertainty, its relationship with probability, and the limits to the quantification of uncertainty. Drawing on extensive experience in the theory and applications of risk analysis, the authors focus on the conceptual and mathematical foundations underlying the quantification, interpretation and management of risk. They cover standard topics as well as important new subjects such as the use of expert judgement and uncertainty propagation. The relationship of risk analysis with decision making is highlighted in chapters on influence diagrams and decision theory. Finally, the difficulties of choosing metrics to quantify risk, and current regulatory frameworks are discussed.

The third edition of Introduction to Environmental Forensics is a state-of-the-art reference for the practicing environmental forensics consultant, regulator, student, academic, and scientist, with topics including compound-specific isotope analysis (CSIA), advanced multivariate statistical techniques, surrogate approaches for contaminant source identification and age dating, dendroecology, hydrofracking, releases from underground storage tanks and piping, and contaminant-transport modeling for forensic applications. Recognized international forensic scientists were selected to author chapters in their specific areas of expertise and case studies are included to illustrate the application of these methods in actual environmental forensic investigations. This edition provides updates on advances in various techniques and introduces several new topics. - Provides a comprehensive review of all aspects of environmental forensics - Coverage ranges from emerging statistical methods to state-of-the-art analytical techniques, such as gas chromatography-combustion-isotope ratio mass spectrometry and polytopic vector analysis - Numerous examples and case studies are provided to illustrate the application of these forensic techniques in environmental investigations

This book explores a new realm in data-based modeling with applications to hydrology. Pursuing a case study approach, it presents a rigorous evaluation of state-of-the-art input selection methods on the basis of detailed and comprehensive experimentation and comparative studies that employ emerging hybrid techniques for modeling and analysis. Advanced computing offers a range of new options for hydrologic modeling with the help of mathematical and data-based approaches like wavelets, neural networks, fuzzy logic, and support vector machines. Recently machine learning/artificial intelligence techniques have come to be used for time series modeling. However, though initial studies have shown this approach to be effective, there are still concerns about their accuracy and ability to make predictions on a selected input space.

This book examines the impacts of global change on terrestrial ecosystems. Emphasis is placed on impacts of atmospheric, climate and land use change, and the book discusses the future challenges and the scientific frameworks to address them. Finally, the book explores fundamental new research developments and the need for stronger integration of natural and human dimensions in addressing the challenge of global change.

Safety in the process industries is critical for those who work with chemicals and hazardous substances or processes. The field of loss prevention is, and continues to be, of supreme importance to countless companies, municipalities and governments around the world, and Lees' is a detailed reference to defending against hazards. Recognized as the standard work for chemical and process engineering safety professionals, it provides the most complete collection of information on the theory, practice, design elements, equipment, regulations and laws covering the field of process safety. An entire library of alternative books (and cross-referencing systems) would be needed to replace or improve upon it, but everything of importance to safety professionals, engineers and managers can be found in this all-encompassing three volume reference instead. - The process safety encyclopedia, trusted worldwide for over 30 years - Now available in print and online, to aid searchability and portability - Over 3,600 print pages cover the full scope of process safety and loss prevention, compiling theory, practice, standards, legislation, case studies and lessons learned in one resource as opposed to multiple sources