The War on Statistical Significance

The War on Statistical Significance
Title The War on Statistical Significance PDF eBook
Author DONALD B. MACNAUGHTON
Publisher
Pages 260
Release 2021-03-30
Genre
ISBN

Download The War on Statistical Significance Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

From the preface The "threshold p-value"-the arbiter of statistical significance-has been a widely used gateway to believability and acceptance for publication in scientific research since 1925. However, a growing number of statisticians and other researchers say we should "move beyond" these ideas, suggesting we should greatly reduce our emphasis on them in scientific research. These authors are waging a well-intentioned, polite, and vigorous intellectual war on the ideas of a threshold p-value and statistical significance. This is a "good" war, because it forces important issues into the open, where they can be best understood and assessed. This book grew from a sense that the threshold-p-value gateway to publication of scientific research results is highly useful but is also widely misunderstood. The book presents, from first principles, a modern view of the role of the gateway, as used by some scientific journals. The ideas are explained in terms of the recent disagreement about them between the editorial in a Special Issue on Statistical Inference of the American Statistician and a subsequent editorial in the New England Journal of Medicine. The ideas are developed with almost no reference to mathematics. (A computer can do all the standard math if the user properly understands the key ideas.) The explanations are reinforced with practical examples. The discussion shows how the concept of a threshold-p-value gateway helps researchers and journal editors maximize the overall scientific, social, and commercial benefit of scientific research. The gateway does this by optimally balancing the rates of costly "false-positive" and "false-negative" errors in a scientific journal. The book also discusses the important related ideas of a relationship between variables, a scientific hypothesis test, and the "replication crisis" in some branches of scientific research. The body of the book, which covers the key ideas, is roughly 30% of the text. The remainder consists of 23 appendices that expand the ideas in useful directions. The material is aimed at scientific researchers, journal editors, science teachers, and science students in the biological, social, and physical sciences. It will also be of interest to statisticians, data scientists, philosophers of science, and lay readers seeking an integrated modern view of the high-level operation of the study of relationships between variables in scientific research. About the author Donald B. Macnaughton has been a statistical consultant for more than 40 years. He has managed the statistical aspects of research in the fields of experimental psychology, zoology, drug dependence, nursing, education, business, geography, physical education, and inmate rehabilitation, among others. His consulting work supports and informs his main interest, which is to read, understand, and write about the vital role of the field of statistics in scientific research.

Statistical Inference as Severe Testing

Statistical Inference as Severe Testing
Title Statistical Inference as Severe Testing PDF eBook
Author Deborah G. Mayo
Publisher Cambridge University Press
Pages 503
Release 2018-09-20
Genre Mathematics
ISBN 1108563309

Download Statistical Inference as Severe Testing Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Mounting failures of replication in social and biological sciences give a new urgency to critically appraising proposed reforms. This book pulls back the cover on disagreements between experts charged with restoring integrity to science. It denies two pervasive views of the role of probability in inference: to assign degrees of belief, and to control error rates in a long run. If statistical consumers are unaware of assumptions behind rival evidence reforms, they can't scrutinize the consequences that affect them (in personalized medicine, psychology, etc.). The book sets sail with a simple tool: if little has been done to rule out flaws in inferring a claim, then it has not passed a severe test. Many methods advocated by data experts do not stand up to severe scrutiny and are in tension with successful strategies for blocking or accounting for cherry picking and selective reporting. Through a series of excursions and exhibits, the philosophy and history of inductive inference come alive. Philosophical tools are put to work to solve problems about science and pseudoscience, induction and falsification.

The Art of Statistics

The Art of Statistics
Title The Art of Statistics PDF eBook
Author David Spiegelhalter
Publisher Basic Books
Pages 359
Release 2019-09-03
Genre Mathematics
ISBN 1541618521

Download The Art of Statistics Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

In this "important and comprehensive" guide to statistical thinking (New Yorker), discover how data literacy is changing the world and gives you a better understanding of life’s biggest problems. Statistics are everywhere, as integral to science as they are to business, and in the popular media hundreds of times a day. In this age of big data, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever if we want to separate the fact from the fiction, the ostentatious embellishments from the raw evidence -- and even more so if we hope to participate in the future, rather than being simple bystanders. In The Art of Statistics, world-renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows readers how to derive knowledge from raw data by focusing on the concepts and connections behind the math. Drawing on real world examples to introduce complex issues, he shows us how statistics can help us determine the luckiest passenger on the Titanic, whether a notorious serial killer could have been caught earlier, and if screening for ovarian cancer is beneficial. The Art of Statistics not only shows us how mathematicians have used statistical science to solve these problems -- it teaches us how we too can think like statisticians. We learn how to clarify our questions, assumptions, and expectations when approaching a problem, and -- perhaps even more importantly -- we learn how to responsibly interpret the answers we receive. Combining the incomparable insight of an expert with the playful enthusiasm of an aficionado, The Art of Statistics is the definitive guide to stats that every modern person needs.

The Oxford Handbook of the Science of Science Communication

The Oxford Handbook of the Science of Science Communication
Title The Oxford Handbook of the Science of Science Communication PDF eBook
Author Kathleen Hall Jamieson
Publisher Oxford University Press
Pages 513
Release 2017
Genre Psychology
ISBN 0190497629

Download The Oxford Handbook of the Science of Science Communication Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

On topics from genetic engineering and mad cow disease to vaccination and climate change, this Handbook draws on the insights of 57 leading science of science communication scholars who explore what social scientists know about how citizens come to understand and act on what is known by science.

Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences

Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences
Title Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences PDF eBook
Author Jacob Cohen
Publisher Routledge
Pages 625
Release 2013-05-13
Genre Psychology
ISBN 1134742770

Download Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Statistical Power Analysis is a nontechnical guide to power analysis in research planning that provides users of applied statistics with the tools they need for more effective analysis. The Second Edition includes: * a chapter covering power analysis in set correlation and multivariate methods; * a chapter considering effect size, psychometric reliability, and the efficacy of "qualifying" dependent variables and; * expanded power and sample size tables for multiple regression/correlation.

Kursk 1943

Kursk 1943
Title Kursk 1943 PDF eBook
Author Anders Frankson
Publisher Routledge
Pages 289
Release 2016-12-05
Genre History
ISBN 113526810X

Download Kursk 1943 Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

The battle at Kursk in 1943 is often referred to as the greatest tank battle in the history of warfare. This volume makes extensive use of German archival documents as well as various Russian books and articles. As well as an account of the battle, it addresses methodological issues.

Regression and Other Stories

Regression and Other Stories
Title Regression and Other Stories PDF eBook
Author Andrew Gelman
Publisher Cambridge University Press
Pages 551
Release 2021
Genre Business & Economics
ISBN 110702398X

Download Regression and Other Stories Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

A practical approach to using regression and computation to solve real-world problems of estimation, prediction, and causal inference.