Russia’s war on Ukraine shows no signs of subsidence. Its economic and societal adversities have already been felt worldwide but keep evolving, with food and energy being the most affected. Low-income, food-deficit nations importing from these two countries – many of which are in Northern Africa and Western and Central Asia – face critical challenges. The South Asian region, which has grappled with surging commodity prices and supply constraints even before the war, is likely to witness further inflation with rising food and oil prices. India is home to around 18% of the world’s population and accounts for 74% of the South Asian population. It is predicted to be the fastest-growing big economy this year. The country’s central bank (RBI) predicts that GDP will grow by 7.5% in FY 2022-23 (RBI, 2022), while many international organizations forecast growth between 6.4% and 8.2% (ADB, 2022; IMF, 2022; United Nations, 2022; World Bank, 2022). Still, in the wake of the ill effects of COVID-19, the country’s dependence on imports such as oil, fertilizers, and edible oils, and given surging domestic food and nonfood inflation in recent months, raises concerns about economic stability and possible interventions that might curtail fragility. The country consumes around 5 million barrels of crude oil daily but imports over 89% of its requirement from overseas. Crude oil prices have increased by 27% in just four months since the start of the war (February- June 2022). Edible oils have similarly increased, with palm and soybean oil prices rising by around 14% and 18%, respectively. The price of sunflower seed oil has increased by 42%, of which 86% originates from Ukraine and Russia. Fertilizer import dependency from the conflict regions is also sizeable. Russia was the 5th largest supplier of fertilizers to India in 2021-22, and Ukraine and Belarus were the 9th and 10th largest suppliers. The rise in prices of both finished fertilizers and fertilizer inputs has prompted the Government to double the fertilizer subsidy budgeted earlier this year. This policy brief investigates India's susceptibility to the war's disruptions and higher prices for commodities where import dependence is high. It then discusses potential income, food, and nutritional impacts on farmers, the poor, and the vulnerable. It also evaluates the Government’s policy measures such as subsidization, social safety nets, and trade diversification to reduce the impact of the war. Finally, it explores the market opportunities the conflict has created and the required structural reforms that would equip the country to handle such shocks in the future.

New evidence this year corroborates the rise in world hunger observed in this report last year, sending a warning that more action is needed if we aspire to end world hunger and malnutrition in all its forms by 2030. Updated estimates show the number of people who suffer from hunger has been growing over the past three years, returning to prevailing levels from almost a decade ago. Although progress continues to be made in reducing child stunting, over 22 percent of children under five years of age are still affected. Other forms of malnutrition are also growing: adult obesity continues to increase in countries irrespective of their income levels, and many countries are coping with multiple forms of malnutrition at the same time – overweight and obesity, as well as anaemia in women, and child stunting and wasting.

Updates for many countries have made it possible to estimate hunger in the world with greater accuracy this year. In particular, newly accessible data enabled the revision of the entire series of undernourishment estimates for China back to 2000, resulting in a substantial downward shift of the series of the number of undernourished in the world. Nevertheless, the revision confirms the trend reported in past editions: the number of people affected by hunger globally has been slowly on the rise since 2014. The report also shows that the burden of malnutrition in all its forms continues to be a challenge. There has been some progress for child stunting, low birthweight and exclusive breastfeeding, but at a pace that is still too slow. Childhood overweight is not improving and adult obesity is on the rise in all regions. The report complements the usual assessment of food security and nutrition with projections of what the world may look like in 2030, if trends of the last decade continue. Projections show that the world is not on track to achieve Zero Hunger by 2030 and, despite some progress, most indicators are also not on track to meet global nutrition targets. The food security and nutritional status of the most vulnerable population groups is likely to deteriorate further due to the health and socio economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The report puts a spotlight on diet quality as a critical link between food security and nutrition. Meeting SDG 2 targets will only be possible if people have enough food to eat and if what they are eating is nutritious and affordable. The report also introduces new analysis of the cost and affordability of healthy diets around the world, by region and in different development contexts. It presents valuations of the health and climate-change costs associated with current food consumption patterns, as well as the potential cost savings if food consumption patterns were to shift towards healthy diets that include sustainability considerations. The report then concludes with a discussion of the policies and strategies to transform food systems to ensure affordable healthy diets, as part of the required efforts to end both hunger and all forms of malnutrition.

A timely publication as world leaders deliberate the causes of the latest bouts of food price volatility and search for solutions that address the recent velocity of financial, economic, political, demographic, and climatic change. As a collection compiled from a diverse group of economists, analysts, traders, institutions and policy formulators - comprising multiple methodologies and viewpoints - the book exposes the impact of volatility on global food security, with particular focus on the world's most vulnerable.

People are often surprised to learn that although the current global levels of food production are sufficient to feed all of humanity, the problems of undernourishment increase year by year in many countries. Economic growth, while important, is not a guarantee for reducing hunger. The intensification of income concentration worldwide, in the face of the persistence of millions of hungry families, demonstrates that economic interest is not guided by the needs of humanity. Moreover, the problem of food no longer refers to the lack of food alone. Many people are still unaware that our diets are not simply choices of taste and tradition but the result of international dynamics driven by geopolitical factors, the trajectory of capitalism, and other ulterior forces. The authors deepen the link between international relations and food security by exploring the humanitarian and ethical importance of a solution to the problem of hunger; the role of the state as a strategically relevant actor in achieving food security; and the nature of the problem of food security in a world in which the rationale guiding food production and distribution is a capitalist one.

The Russian Federation and Ukraine are major global suppliers of cereals and sunflower oil, while the Russian Federation is also a leading exporter of fertilizers and energy. Due to the devastating war in Ukraine, global prices for these commodities have reached record highs. FAO Markets and Trade Division, with the FAO Investment Centre and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, have published this study on the potential impact of the war in Ukraine on food security and agrifood trade in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia. Beyond a detailed analysis of how the war in Ukraine affects these countries, the report also contains a set of key policy recommendations to help governments cope with the unfolding situation and improve food security in the medium and long term. This publication is part of the Knowledge for Investment (K4I) series managed by FAO Investment Centre.