What gives statistics its unity as a science? Stephen Stigler sets forth the seven foundational ideas of statistics—a scientific discipline related to but distinct from mathematics and computer science. Even the most basic idea—aggregation, exemplified by averaging—is counterintuitive. It allows one to gain information by discarding information, namely, the individuality of the observations. Stigler’s second pillar, information measurement, challenges the importance of “big data” by noting that observations are not all equally important: the amount of information in a data set is often proportional to only the square root of the number of observations, not the absolute number. The third idea is likelihood, the calibration of inferences with the use of probability. Intercomparison is the principle that statistical comparisons do not need to be made with respect to an external standard. The fifth pillar is regression, both a paradox (tall parents on average produce shorter children; tall children on average have shorter parents) and the basis of inference, including Bayesian inference and causal reasoning. The sixth concept captures the importance of experimental design—for example, by recognizing the gains to be had from a combinatorial approach with rigorous randomization. The seventh idea is the residual: the notion that a complicated phenomenon can be simplified by subtracting the effect of known causes, leaving a residual phenomenon that can be explained more easily. The Seven Pillars of Statistical Wisdom presents an original, unified account of statistical science that will fascinate the interested layperson and engage the professional statistician.

This lively collection of essays examines statistical ideas with an ironic eye for their essence and what their history can tell us for current disputes. The topics range from 17th-century medicine and the circulation of blood, to the cause of the Great Depression, to the determinations of the shape of the Earth and the speed of light.

This magnificent book is the first comprehensive history of statistics from its beginnings around 1700 to its emergence as a distinct and mature discipline around 1900. Stephen M. Stigler shows how statistics arose from the interplay of mathematical concepts and the needs of several applied sciences including astronomy, geodesy, experimental psychology, genetics, and sociology. He addresses many intriguing questions: How did scientists learn to combine measurements made under different conditions? And how were they led to use probability theory to measure the accuracy of the result? Why were statistical methods used successfully in astronomy long before they began to play a significant role in the social sciences? How could the introduction of least squares predate the discovery of regression by more than eighty years? On what grounds can the major works of men such as Bernoulli, De Moivre, Bayes, Quetelet, and Lexis be considered partial failures, while those of Laplace, Galton, Edgeworth, Pearson, and Yule are counted as successes? How did Galton’s probability machine (the quincunx) provide him with the key to the major advance of the last half of the nineteenth century? Stigler’s emphasis is upon how, when, and where the methods of probability theory were developed for measuring uncertainty in experimental and observational science, for reducing uncertainty, and as a conceptual framework for quantitative studies in the social sciences. He describes with care the scientific context in which the different methods evolved and identifies the problems (conceptual or mathematical) that retarded the growth of mathematical statistics and the conceptual developments that permitted major breakthroughs. Statisticians, historians of science, and social and behavioral scientists will gain from this book a deeper understanding of the use of statistical methods and a better grasp of the promise and limitations of such techniques. The product of ten years of research, The History of Statistics will appeal to all who are interested in the humanistic study of science.

Drug development is the process of finding and producingtherapeutically useful pharmaceuticals, turning them into safe andeffective medicine, and producing reliable information regardingthe appropriate dosage and dosing intervals. With regulatoryauthorities demanding increasingly higher standards in suchdevelopments, statistics has become an intrinsic and criticalelement in the design and conduct of drug development programmes. Statistical Issues in Drug Development presents anessential and thought provoking guide to the statistical issues andcontroversies involved in drug development. This highly readable second edition has been updated toinclude: Comprehensive coverage of the design and interpretation ofclinical trials. Expanded sections on missing data, equivalence, meta-analysisand dose finding. An examination of both Bayesian and frequentist methods. A new chapter on pharmacogenomics and expanded coverage ofpharmaco-epidemiology and pharmaco-economics. Coverage of the ICH guidelines, in particular ICH E9,Statistical Principles for Clinical Trials. It is hoped that the book will stimulate dialogue betweenstatisticians and life scientists working within the pharmaceuticalindustry. The accessible and wide-ranging coverage make itessential reading for both statisticians and non-statisticiansworking in the pharmaceutical industry, regulatory bodies andmedical research institutes. There is also much to benefitundergraduate and postgraduate students whose courses include amedical statistics component.

What gives statistics its unity as a science? Stephen Stigler sets forth the seven foundational ideas of statistics—a scientific discipline related to but distinct from mathematics and computer science. Even the most basic idea—aggregation, exemplified by averaging—is counterintuitive. It allows one to gain information by discarding information, namely, the individuality of the observations. Stigler’s second pillar, information measurement, challenges the importance of “big data” by noting that observations are not all equally important: the amount of information in a data set is often proportional to only the square root of the number of observations, not the absolute number. The third idea is likelihood, the calibration of inferences with the use of probability. Intercomparison is the principle that statistical comparisons do not need to be made with respect to an external standard. The fifth pillar is regression, both a paradox (tall parents on average produce shorter children; tall children on average have shorter parents) and the basis of inference, including Bayesian inference and causal reasoning. The sixth concept captures the importance of experimental design—for example, by recognizing the gains to be had from a combinatorial approach with rigorous randomization. The seventh idea is the residual: the notion that a complicated phenomenon can be simplified by subtracting the effect of known causes, leaving a residual phenomenon that can be explained more easily. The Seven Pillars of Statistical Wisdom presents an original, unified account of statistical science that will fascinate the interested layperson and engage the professional statistician.

"[Acheson] introduces the fundamental ideas of calculus through the story of how the subject developed, from approximating π to imaginary numbers, and from Newton's falling apple to the vibrations of an electric guitar."--Back cover

A daily glass of wine prolongs life—yet alcohol can cause life-threatening cancer. Some say raising the minimum wage will decrease inequality while others say it increases unemployment. Scientists once confidently claimed that hormone replacement therapy reduced the risk of heart disease but now they equally confidently claim it raises that risk. What should we make of this endless barrage of conflicting claims? Observation and Experiment is an introduction to causal inference by one of the field’s leading scholars. An award-winning professor at Wharton, Paul Rosenbaum explains key concepts and methods through lively examples that make abstract principles accessible. He draws his examples from clinical medicine, economics, public health, epidemiology, clinical psychology, and psychiatry to explain how randomized control trials are conceived and designed, how they differ from observational studies, and what techniques are available to mitigate their bias. “Carefully and precisely written...reflecting superb statistical understanding, all communicated with the skill of a master teacher.” —Stephen M. Stigler, author of The Seven Pillars of Statistical Wisdom “An excellent introduction...Well-written and thoughtful...from one of causal inference’s noted experts.” —Journal of the American Statistical Association “Rosenbaum is a gifted expositor...an outstanding introduction to the topic for anyone who is interested in understanding the basic ideas and approaches to causal inference.” —Psychometrika “A very valuable contribution...Highly recommended.” —International Statistical Review