After a half century of transformative economic progress that moved hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, countries in developing East Asia are facing an array of challenges to their future development. Slowed productivity growth, increased fragility of the global trading system, and rapid changes in technology are all threatening export-oriented, labor-intensive manufacturing—the region’s engine of growth. Significant global challenges—such as climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic—are exacerbating economic vulnerability. These developments raise questions about whether the region’s past model of development can continue to deliver rapid growth and poverty reduction. Against this background, The Innovation Imperative in Developing East Asia aims to deepen understanding of the role of innovation in future development. The report examines the state of innovation in the region and analyzes the main constraints that firms and countries face to innovating. It assesses current policies and institutions, and lays out an agenda for action to spur more innovation-led growth. A key finding of the report is that countries’ current innovation policies are not aligned with their capabilities and needs. Policies need to strengthen the capacity of firms to innovate and support technological diffusion rather than just invention. Policy makers also need to eliminate policy biases against innovation in services, a sector that is growing in economic importance. Moreover, countries need to strengthen key complementary factors for innovation, including firms’ managerial quality, workers’ skills, and finance for innovation. Countries in developing East Asia would also do well to deepen their tradition of international openness, which could foster openness in other parts of the world. Doing so would help sustain the flows of ideas, trade, investment, and people that facilitate the creation and diffusion of knowledge for innovation.

After a half century of significant economic success, countries in developing East Asia face an array of challenges. Slowing productivity growth, increasing fragility of the global trading system, and rapid changes in technology are threatening the region's engine of growth: export-oriented labor-intensive manufacturing. Longer-term demographic and climate change, and the current COVID-19 pandemic, are increasing economic vulnerability. These developments raise questions about whether the past model of economic success can continue to deliver rapid growth and poverty reduction. Against this background, To the Frontier and Beyond examines the role of innovation in fostering future economic progress in developing East Asia. The report suggests policy and institutional reforms for innovation-led growth in the region.

Agricultural innovation has played a critical role in the economic transformation of developing East Asian countries over the past half century. The Green Revolution—in the form of modern seed varieties, chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and modern machinery—has contributed to increased crop yields and farm incomes, and decreased poverty across the region. Although policy makers’ traditional focus on expanding and intensifying agricultural production has brought many benefits, the focus on productivity has come at a rising cost. The environmental sustainability of agricultural production is increasingly under threat. Moreover, as countries in the region have become more urbanized and demand for processed foods has risen, inadequate food safety systems and related food safety hazards have created a new form of food insecurity. As detailed in Agricultural Innovation in Developing East Asia: Productivity, Safety, and Sustainability, a new generation of innovation in agriculture has the potential to address the challenges of productivity, sustainability, and food safety to deliver a “triple win.†? To make the most of this promising wave of agricultural innovations, policy makers in the region will need to act to strengthen countries’ agricultural innovation systems. This effort will require a cross-cutting approach, including policy and institutional reforms, improved governance of countries’ agri-food systems, and efforts to build farmers’ and firms’ capacities to adopt new technologies and to innovate.

This book promotes the creation of advanced knowledge-based economies driven by innovation networks and the continuous development of human capital and capability. It provides valuable insights into the growing emergence of knowledge-based industries of the Asia Pacific, and highlights research on: modes of creativity and innovation; intellectual property; the components of national innovation systems such as firms, education and training; knowledge and technical infrastructure; and public policy. The Asia Pacific region is currently in the process of transforming from being the manufacturing centre of the global economy to a centre of innovation for the knowledge economy, with the successful IPO of Alibaba in 2014 being a prime example of this shift. From a neo-Schumpeterian perspective, the region is increasingly engaged in shortening and intensifying cycles of innovation. The historic agreement at the Beijing APEC meeting between China and the US to radically reduce carbon emissions indicates that one imperative of this innovation is to contribute to sustainability. The fact that the US Government is moving away from this historic commitment, while the Chinese Government is endorsing the commitment, indicates an emerging opportunity for Asia to lead the world technologically in a vital industrial sector of the future.

Most economies in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) are growing faster than the rest of the world but slower than before the pandemic. Slowing global growth, still tight financial conditions, and an increase in trade protection and industrial support in large and rich countries are key aspects of the external environment shaping the region's economic performance. Amplified public and private debt, constrained macroeconomic policy, and increased policy uncertainty are the major domestic issues. EAP's current macroeconomic challenges risk obscuring the microeconomic foundations of longer-term growth. Over the last decade, EAP's growth has been driven by investment and capital deepening rather than by increased productivity of firms. Now private investment is weak and productivity declining†“further inhibiting the incentive to invest. Firms are the protagonists of productivity growth. Some of the weaker firms in EAP countries are beginning to catch up with stronger firms. But the stronger firms in the region are failing to take full advantage of new technologies: regional leaders risk becoming global laggards. Bold policy action to unleash competition, improve infrastructure and reform education with measured state support could revitalize the region's economy.

A year after the first case was confirmed in Wuhan COVID-19 is proving hard to suppress even, while the emergence of more transmissible variants of the variant poses new challenges to the containment of the disease globally. The economies of the region began to bounce back in the second half of 2020. However, only China and Vietnam have followed a V-shape recovery path with output surpassing pre-COVID-19 levels. Most of the other countries have not seen a full-fledged recovery in terms of either output or growth momentum. Economic performance across countries continues to depend on (i) the efficiency with which the virus is contained; (ii) the ability to take advantage of the revival in international goods trade; and (iii) the capacity of governments to provide fiscal and monetary support. China and Vietnam are expected to enjoy strong growth in 2021, whereas other economies in the region will grow more gradually. Many economies, especially in the Pacific islands are not expected to reach pre-COVID-19 levels of output until 2022 or later. Governments in the region need to work cooperatively to address three key issues: (i) a regional and global distribution of vaccines that minimizes the risk of a continued spread of COVID-19 and its variants; (ii) continue to provide economic support to their economies while carefully evaluating the trade-offs between the need for further stimulus and debt sustainability; and (iii) enact policies and prioritize investments that protect against climate risk to ensure sustainable economic growth.

"Long COVID: Scars and Opportunity." The title of this report has two meanings. First, that the disease will leave in its wake a durably damaged economy. Second, that the disease is not leaving any time soon and may be here to stay. This duality reflects the two themes of this Update. In the near time, the persistence of the pandemic will prolong human and economic distress unless individuals and firms can adapt. In the longer-term, COVID-19 will reduce growth and increase inequality unless we can remedy the scars and grasp the opportunities created by the pandemic. Accordingly, policy action must help economic agents not just to adjust today but also to make choices that avert economic sluggishness and disparity tomorrow. We begin by addressing three proximate questions: What is happening to the economies? Why? And what can we expect? We then discuss the longer-term impact of COVID-19, on growth through the impact on firms and on inequality through the impact on households.