The 1918-19 influenza epidemic killed more than fifty million people worldwide. The SARS epidemic of 2002-3, by comparison, killed fewer than a thousand. The success in containing the spread of SARS was due largely to the rapid global response of public health authorities, which was aided by insights resulting from mathematical models. Models enabled authorities to better understand how the disease spread and to assess the relative effectiveness of different control strategies. In this book, Lisa Sattenspiel and Alun Lloyd provide a comprehensive introduction to mathematical models in epidemiology and show how they can be used to predict and control the geographic spread of major infectious diseases. Key concepts in infectious disease modeling are explained, readers are guided from simple mathematical models to more complex ones, and the strengths and weaknesses of these models are explored. The book highlights the breadth of techniques available to modelers today, such as population-based and individual-based models, and covers specific applications as well. Sattenspiel and Lloyd examine the powerful mathematical models that health authorities have developed to understand the spatial distribution and geographic spread of influenza, measles, foot-and-mouth disease, and SARS. Analytic methods geographers use to study human infectious diseases and the dynamics of epidemics are also discussed. A must-read for students, researchers, and practitioners, no other book provides such an accessible introduction to this exciting and fast-evolving field.

Since the dawn of medical science, people have recognized connections between a change in the weather and the appearance of epidemic disease. With today's technology, some hope that it will be possible to build models for predicting the emergence and spread of many infectious diseases based on climate and weather forecasts. However, separating the effects of climate from other effects presents a tremendous scientific challenge. Can we use climate and weather forecasts to predict infectious disease outbreaks? Can the field of public health advance from "surveillance and response" to "prediction and prevention?" And perhaps the most important question of all: Can we predict how global warming will affect the emergence and transmission of infectious disease agents around the world? Under the Weather evaluates our current understanding of the linkages among climate, ecosystems, and infectious disease; it then goes a step further and outlines the research needed to improve our understanding of these linkages. The book also examines the potential for using climate forecasts and ecological observations to help predict infectious disease outbreaks, identifies the necessary components for an epidemic early warning system, and reviews lessons learned from the use of climate forecasts in other realms of human activity.

The Oxford Textbook of Infectious Disease Control: A Geographical Analysis from Medieval Quarantine to Global Eradication is a comprehensive analysis of spatial theory and the practical methods used to prevent the geographical spread of communicable diseases in humans. Drawing on current and historical examples spanning seven centuries from across the globe, this indispensable volume demonstrates how to mitigate the public health impact of infections in disease hotspots and prevent the propagation of infection from such hotspots into other geographical locations. Containing case studies of longstanding global killers such as influenza, measles and poliomyelitis, through to newly emerged diseases like SARS and highly pathogenic avian influenza in humans, this book integrates theory, data and spatial analysis and locates these quantitative analyses in the context of global demographic and health policy change. Beautifully illustrated with over 100 original maps and diagrams to aid understanding and assimilation, in six sections the authors examine surveillance, quarantine, vaccination, and forecasting for disease control. The discussion covers theoretical approaches, techniques and systems central to mitigating disease spread, and methods that deliver practical disease control. Essential information is also provided on the geographical eradication of diseases, including the design of early warning systems that detect the geographical spread of epidemics, enabling students and practitioners to design spatially-targeted control strategies. Despite the early hope of eradication of many communicable diseases after the global eradication of smallpox by 1979, the world is still working at the control and elimination of the spatial spread of newly-emerging and resurgent infectious diseases. Learning from past examples and incorporating modern surveillance and reporting techniques that are used to design value-for-money spatially-targeted interventions to protect public health, the Oxford Textbook of Infectious Disease Control is an essential resource for all those working in, or studying ways to control the spread of communicable diseases between humans in a timely and cost-effective manner. It is ideal for specialists and students in infectious disease control as well as those in the medical sciences, epidemiology, demography, public health, geography, and medical history.

Features modern research and methodology on the spread of infectious diseases and showcases a broad range of multi-disciplinary and state-of-the-art techniques on geo-simulation, geo-visualization, remote sensing, metapopulation modeling, cloud computing, and pattern analysis Given the ongoing risk of infectious diseases worldwide, it is crucial to develop appropriate analysis methods, models, and tools to assess and predict the spread of disease and evaluate the risk. Analyzing and Modeling Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Infectious Diseases features mathematical and spatial modeling approaches that integrate applications from various fields such as geo-computation and simulation, spatial analytics, mathematics, statistics, epidemiology, and health policy. In addition, the book captures the latest advances in the use of geographic information system (GIS), global positioning system (GPS), and other location-based technologies in the spatial and temporal study of infectious diseases. Highlighting the current practices and methodology via various infectious disease studies, Analyzing and Modeling Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Infectious Diseases features: Approaches to better use infectious disease data collected from various sources for analysis and modeling purposes Examples of disease spreading dynamics, including West Nile virus, bird flu, Lyme disease, pandemic influenza (H1N1), and schistosomiasis Modern techniques such as Smartphone use in spatio-temporal usage data, cloud computing-enabled cluster detection, and communicable disease geo-simulation based on human mobility An overview of different mathematical, statistical, spatial modeling, and geo-simulation techniques Analyzing and Modeling Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Infectious Diseases is an excellent resource for researchers and scientists who use, manage, or analyze infectious disease data, need to learn various traditional and advanced analytical methods and modeling techniques, and become aware of different issues and challenges related to infectious disease modeling and simulation. The book is also a useful textbook and/or supplement for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level courses in bioinformatics, biostatistics, public health and policy, and epidemiology.

In October 1999, the Forum on Emerging Infections of the Institute of Medicine convened a two-day workshop titled "International Aspects of Emerging Infections." Key representatives from the international community explored the forces that drive emerging infectious diseases to prominence. Representatives from the Americas, Africa, Asia and the Pacific, and Europe made formal presentations and engaged in panel discussions. Emerging Infectious Diseases from the Global to the Local Perspective includes summaries of the formal presentations and suggests an agenda for future action. The topics addressed cover a wide range of issues, including trends in the incidence of infectious diseases around the world, descriptions of the wide variety of factors that contribute to the emergence and reemergence of these diseases, efforts to coordinate surveillance activities and responses within and across borders, and the resource, research, and international needs that remain to be addressed.

This volume focuses on blocking disease transmission and the ecological perspective of pathogens and pathogenic processes. The chapters on blocking transmission cover the environmental safety of space flight, biocides and biocide resistance, as well as infection control in healthcare facilities. The book also offers insights into the ecological aspects of infectious disease, introducing the reader to the role of indigenous gut microbiota in maintaining human health and current discussions on environmentally encountered bacterial and fungal pathogens including species that variously cause the necrotizing skin disease Buruli ulcer and coccidioidomycosis. Further, it explores the influenza A virus as an example for understanding zoonosis. It is a valuable resource for microbiologists and biomedical scientists alike.