The Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM) is a group of models developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis. A typical module of FSGM is a multi-region, forward-looking semi-structural global model consisting of 24 regions. Using the three core modules focused on the G-20, the euro area, and emerging market economies, this paper outlines the theory under-pinning the model, and illustrates its macroeconomic properties by presenting its responses under a wide range of experiments, including monetary, financial, demand, supply, fiscal and international shocks.

The Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM) is a group of models developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis. A typical module of FSGM is a multi-region, forward-looking semi-structural global model consisting of 24 regions. Using the three core modules focused on the G-20, the euro area, and emerging market economies, this paper outlines the theory under-pinning the model, and illustrates its macroeconomic properties by presenting its responses under a wide range of experiments, including monetary, financial, demand, supply, fiscal and international shocks.

The Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM) is a group of models developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis. A typical module of FSGM is a multi-region, forward-looking semi-structural global model consisting of 24 regions. Using the three core modules focused on the G-20, the euro area, and emerging market economies, this paper outlines the theory under-pinning the model, and illustrates its macroeconomic properties by presenting its responses under a wide range of experiments, including monetary, financial, demand, supply, fiscal and international shocks.

This 2019 Article IV Consultation with People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) discusses that the economy is projected to start recovering next year, but the pace is expected to be gradual and both near- and medium-term risks have increased significantly, including from trade and technology tensions, ongoing social unrest, and structural challenges of insufficient housing supply and high income inequality. Hong Kong SAR is well placed to address both cyclical and structural challenges with its significant buffers thanks to its long history of prudent macroeconomic policies. Given that the fiscal framework permits deficits during economic downturns, government spending should be increased significantly in the areas of social safety nets, education/retraining, and infrastructure to cope with the cyclical downturn and address structural challenges of insufficient housing and high-income inequality. This should be complemented with measures to ensure fiscal sustainability and greater equity.

This Selected Issues paper examines the new private pension automatic enrollment provisions in Turkey. The newly enacted automatic enrollment provisions have several advantages relative to the current voluntary private pension system. However, they have several weaknesses that risk endangering the reform in the long term. The hybrid input-output is not complete without the establishment of a public procurement board and periodic auctioning of pension services. Employers are unlikely to be more skilled than individuals in choosing pension plans for their workers. The IMF staff advice is to complete the hybrid input-output model along the lines recommended by the World Bank by establishing a procurement board for pension services for undecided participants.

This Article IV Consultation highlights that Nigeria’s economy is still recovering from the substantial terms-of-trade shock that triggered the 2016 recession. Persistent structural and policy challenges constrain growth to below the level needed to reduce vulnerabilities and improve development outcomes. With elections now complete, there is a greater chance for faster policy implementation. The authorities’ Economic Recovery and Growth Plan priorities remain appropriate and should be urgently implemented. Revenue-based fiscal consolidation would be required to create space for higher capital and priority spending while improving spending efficiency and strengthening governance. A comprehensive package of urgent policy reforms is required to address vulnerabilities and raise growth over the medium term. The IMF staff suggested that strengthening banking sector resilience requires increasing capital buffers. This includes extending the no dividend distribution rule to all banks with high restructured loans.

This paper presents the framework underlying the Global Bank Stress Test (GST) and applies it to recent data and global scenarios to illustrate the usefulness of the framework in assessing the potential impact of global shocks on banks around the world. The results of this latest update of the GST continue to point to relatively lower levels of resilience of banks in emerging market economies (EMs) than in advanced economies (AEs).