This book makes clear that water, not oil, is the key to the future of the Middle East. The Southeast Anatolia Development Project (SEAP) begun by Turkey will irrigate over 1.7 million hectares of new land, double its energy production, and provide agricultural surpluses that Turkey hopes to sell to its Arab neighbors. When SEAP is in full operation, however, the downstream nations will be faced with a greatly reduced flow of water of altered quality in the Euphrates. The war with Iraq has intensified the political significance of the project.

For more than 4,000 years, lands irrigated by the Tigris and the Euphrates Rivers have been the scene of violent conflict. History has been shaped by geography and, in particular, by access to water. The Southeastern Anatolia Project (Guneydogu Anadolu Projesi, or GAP) is a major reclamation and hydropower project that has been a Turkish Government priority since 1961. When complete, the 22-dam project will irrigate an additional 1.7 million hectares (about 4.2 million acres) in southeast Turkey. The GAP has direct consequences for Iraq and Syria. Both countries are heavily dependent on the waters of the Tigris and the Euphrates, and the impact of the project could ultimately reduce the flow of fresh water to Syria and to Iraq. These transboundary water issues have the potential to further destabilize an already tense region as the GAP approaches full development in the next 20 years. A 1988 article in U.S. News and World Report described a frightening scenario: November 12, 1993. War erupted throughout the Middle East today in a desperate struggle for dwindling water supplies. Iraqi forces, attempting to smash a Syrian blockade, launched massive attacks on the Euphrates River valley. Syria answered with missile attacks on Baghdad. The envisioned scenario has not materialized some 10 years after its dire prediction, but security conditions in the Tigris-Euphrates basin are unstable and the potential for "water wars" is still present. Resource scarcity is an important factor in any security analysis, and the realm of environmental security is subject to renewed debate in the United States. This book explores the relationship between regional security and the river environment of the Tigris-Euphrates basin. The focus will be on Turkey, because a review of Turkish history, politics, and military capability is central to an understanding of the security issues concerning the GAP. -- p. 1.

Turkey, Syria and Iraq, the main riparians of the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers, have unilaterally created agricultural irrigation schemes and other water utilization projects along these two rivers for centuries. Turkey is currently engaged in ambitious development of both rivers under a broad plan known as the Southeastern Anatolia Project or Guneydogu Anadolu Projesi (GAP). Syria and Iraq are highly dependent upon these two rivers for drinking water, irrigation, industrial uses, and hydroelectricity, and view this project with strong interest. Given the historic and complex religious, ethnic, territorial and hydro-political relationships between these three countries, Turkey's continuing development of the rivers is certain to increase tensions. This paper will examine the hypothesis that Turkey's Southeastern Anatolia Project will reduce water flow to the downstream riparians so drastically as to foment armed conflict in the region within the next ten years. Implications for U.S. national security strategy will also be discussed.

For more than 4,000 years, lands irrigated by the Tigris and the Euphrates Rivers have been the scene of violent conflict. History has been shaped by geography and, in particular, by access to water. The Southeastern Anatolia Project (Guneydogu Anadolu Projesi, or GAP) is a major reclamation and hydropower project that has been a Turkish Government priority since 1961. When complete, the 22-dam project will irrigate an additional 1.7 million hectares (about 4.2 million acres) in southeast Turkey. The GAP has direct consequences for Iraq and Syria. Both countries are heavily dependent on the waters of the Tigris and the Euphrates, and the impact of the project could ultimately reduce the flow of fresh water to Syria and to Iraq. These transboundary water issues have the potential to further destabilize an already tense region as the GAP approaches full development in the next 20 years. A 1988 article in U.S. News and World Report described a frightening scenario: November 12, 1993. War erupted throughout the Middle East today in a desperate struggle for dwindling water supplies. Iraqi forces, attempting to smash a Syrian blockade, launched massive attacks on the Euphrates River valley. Syria answered with missile attacks on Baghdad. The envisioned scenario has not materialized some 10 years after its dire prediction, but security conditions in the Tigris-Euphrates basin are unstable and the potential for "water wars" is still present. Resource scarcity is an important factor in any security analysis, and the realm of environmental security is subject to renewed debate in the United States. This book explores the relationship between regional security and the river environment of the Tigris-Euphrates basin. The focus will be on Turkey, because a review of Turkish history, politics, and military capability is central to an understanding of the security issues concerning the GAP. (8 figures).

Due to a variety of reasons, water resources on the globe are becoming scarcer. The degree of water scarcity and its political, economic and social implications are felt more severely in regions like the Middle East. The Euphrates-Tigris river basin is one of the major sources of water, but also a source of tension in the region. Unless cooperation is achieved among the riparian countries, namely Turkey, Syria and Iraq, in the areas of management, allocation and utilisation of the waters of the Euphrates-Tigris basin, growing scarcity may result not only in conflict, but also in further devastation of an extremely vital source. Recently, water has become a subject matter of international law, and formal and informal deliberations in international conferences have produced general principles and norms for using and managing water resources effectively. Hence, this book is an attempt to put together a meaningful set of principles, norms, rules, and decision-making procedures of a region-specific regime framework for effective utilisation of the waters of the Euphrates-Tigris river basin with a view to promoting cooperation among the riparian countries.

The finite water supply of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers is increasingly imbalanced with the demands of Turkey, Syria, and Iraq. Turkey's GAP project, which will eventually include 22 dams and 19 hydroelectric plants in the upper Tigris-Euphrates basin, gives Turkey tremendous ability to control both rivers, and provides significant political and economic influence over Syria and Iraq. The countries have failed to reach a water-sharing agreement, and Turkish and Syrian stockpiling to fill reservoirs nearly led to military conflicts with Iraq in 1974 and 1990. Recent drought-induced low river flows have led to accusations that Turkey is holding back more than its fair share of water. This paper details the nature of water shortages in the Tigris and Euphrates basin, discusses relationships between upstream-downstream riparian states, analyzes whether international water laws are sufficiently developed to influence Turkey, Syria, and Iraq toward a long-term solution, and explains the importance of a U.S. role, with policy options for promoting equitable water-sharing between these states. Lastly, this paper describes steps Iraq must take to improve its water security, with or without a water-sharing agreement with Turkey and Syria. Despite worsening water availability and equity in the Tigris-Euphrates river basin, a military conflict over water is unlikely while Iraq and Syria remain militarily, politically, and economically weaker than Turkey. However the potential for downstream crisis, human suffering, and conflict will only increase as Turkey continues work on the Southeast Anatolia Development Project (GAP), which includes 22 dams and 19 hydroelectric plants. These dams will provide Turkey with unprecedented control over both Tigris and Euphrates River flows into Syria and Iraq. From its position of strength, Turkey is unlikely to make meaningful concessions on water sharing without application of significant external diplomatic pressure, economic incentives, and concessions from Syria and Iraq. Although near-term military conflict in the Tigris-Euphrates river basin over water is unlikely, regional water shortages and inequities will increasingly challenge U.S. interests, and with international water law and organizations unlikely to resolve Turkish, Syrian, and Iraqi differences, a long-term water-sharing treaty, facilitated by external influence, is needed. The United States has an opportunity to use diplomacy and incentives to move Turkey, Syria, and Iraq toward a long term water-sharing agreement, to promote regional stability and the political and economic viability of the three countries.