This paper uses newly compiled data and a wide range of empirical analysis to assess the impact of government policies on agricultural exports and food production over the past two decades and across most sub-Saharan countries. While direct government control of marketing and prices of export crops has discouraged exports, disincentives created indirectly by overvalued currencies have been more damaging to agricultural supply in sub-Saharan Africa than in other regions. The rise of imported food to Africa has resulted mostly from factors that encourage consumers to eat imported food, and not from a failure of domestic production, as often assumed. These factors include overvalued currencies (which reduce the price of imported food), falling world food prices, high incomes during times of improved terms of trade, and increased urbanization (encouraged in part by policies of keeping farm prices low and concentrating government social spending in urban areas). Countries that have adopted and sustained policies to raise farm incentives have had better agricultural performance in the 1980's, on average, than those where policies continue to discriminate against agriculture.

Changes in the global environment have led some to question whether the conventional wisdom on the role of agriculture in economic development is still relevant to Africa today. This report critically examines the literature on this issue, taking both the conventional and skeptical views into account. It complements this review with case studies of five African countries. The findings indicate that agricultural growth will play an essential role in promoting overall economic growth and reducing poverty in most of Africa's agrarian-based economies. This holds true even for countries that have the potential for industrial growth driven by natural resources. The results also show that only smallholder food-staple and livestock production can generate broadbased agricultural growth. By demonstrating that Africa's agricultural and food subsector cannot be bypassed, this report contributes to an important ongoing debate in development studies.

Policy in Sub-Saharan African countries is linked with the region's agricultural performance. Exchange rate policies, high taxes on agriculture, and government control of export marketing are associated with the deterioration in agricultural export performance in 1970-87. And the policy reforms of the late 1980s - where sustained and effective - are linked with increased agricultural productivity.

This book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. The book examines the methodological challenges in analyzing the effectiveness of development policies. It presents a selection of tools and methodologies that can help tackle the complexities of which policies work best and why, and how they can be implemented effectively given the political and economic framework conditions of a country. The contributions in this book offer a continuation of the ongoing evidence-based debate on the role of agriculture and participatory policy processes in reducing poverty. They develop and apply quantitative political economy approaches by integrating quantitative models of political decision-making into existing economic modeling tools, allowing a more comprehensive growth-poverty analysis. The book addresses not only scholars who use quantitative policy modeling and evaluation techniques in their empirical or theoretical research, but also technical experts, including policy makers and analysts from stakeholder organizations, involved in formulating and implementing policies to reduce poverty and to increase economic and social well-being in African countries.