Specifically, the paper identifies and analyzes several direct drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Ethiopia including: forest clearance for both subsistence and large-scale agriculture; illegal and unsustainable extraction of wood mainly for charcoal and firewood; overgrazing; and recurrent forest fires. It also reviews underlying drivers including: rapid population increase and the associated growing demand for land and energy; extensive legal and institutional gaps including lack of stable and equitable forest tenure; lack of stakeholder participation in forest management and benefit-sharing schemes; and weak law enforcement. These drivers and the dominant actors behind them – ranging from small-scale subsistence farmers to national and global investors – are discussed in the context of the political economy, including the policy and institutional framework of the country. The implications of the overall forest condition to the objectives and requirements of REDD+ are evaluated, and key issues that need to be addressed for efficient, effective and equitable implementation of REDD+ are discussed. These key issues include: reconciling the apparently contradictory policies and programs, particularly those that negatively affect the forestry sector; improving the forest tenure and governance system; augmenting economic return from forests to communities and individuals; creating more efficient and effective forest institutions at all levels; and enhancing sectoral and regional coordination among implementing agencies.

This Occasional Paper is a review of the development of Ethiopia’s REDD+ MRV system, its national architecture and policies, progress made so far, and plans for the future. It is not a technical review of the current MRV system. We use published and unpub

REDD+ is one of the leading near-term options for global climate change mitigation. More than 300 subnational REDD+ initiatives have been launched across the tropics, responding to both the call for demonstration activities in the Bali Action Plan and the market for voluntary carbon offset credits.

REDD+ must be transformational. REDD+ requires broad institutional and governance reforms, such as tenure, decentralisation, and corruption control. These reforms will enable departures from business as usual, and involve communities and forest users in making and implementing policies that a ect them. Policies must go beyond forestry. REDD+ strategies must include policies outside the forestry sector narrowly de ned, such as agriculture and energy, and better coordinate across sectors to deal with non-forest drivers of deforestation and degradation. Performance-based payments are key, yet limited. Payments based on performance directly incentivise and compensate forest owners and users. But schemes such as payments for environmental services (PES) depend on conditions, such as secure tenure, solid carbon data and transparent governance, that are often lacking and take time to change. This constraint reinforces the need for broad institutional and policy reforms. We must learn from the past. Many approaches to REDD+ now being considered are similar to previous e orts to conserve and better manage forests, often with limited success. Taking on board lessons learned from past experience will improve the prospects of REDD+ e ectiveness. National circumstances and uncertainty must be factored in. Di erent country contexts will create a variety of REDD+ models with di erent institutional and policy mixes. Uncertainties about the shape of the future global REDD+ system, national readiness and political consensus require  exibility and a phased approach to REDD+ implementation.

Climate change is considered as one of the biggest challenges of this time, demanding urgent global response. The forestry sector plays an important role in the climate change debate as it accounts for about 17% of the global green house gas emissions. Because most developing countries have limited resources (socially, technologically and financially) to adapt to climate change, they are the most vulnerable to its effects. Africa, and in particular Ethiopia, is especially vulnerable to climate variability and change, because it has to cope with multiple stresses and has a low adaptive capacity to environmental and social change. Moreover, Ethiopia is faced with a high degree of deforestation and forest degradation. In 2007 the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change introduced the REDD+ policy as a measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and support developing countries in their efforts to reduce deforestation and forest degradation. REDD+ stands for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation with additional attention to conservation and sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks. It is based on the assumption that forests are only likely to contribute to climate change mitigation if their value increases to a level that makes the protection of forests consistent with socio-economic development strategies. Even though REDD+ is not formally adopted so far and is therefore not yet legally binding, in several countries REDD initiatives are emerging. Moreover, already some international systems for climate payments exist, such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Also Ethiopia is actively involved in the climate change debate. A CDM project has been launched and a REDD+ preparedness programme has been initiated. Also a regional REDD program is currently running. However there is still much uncertainty about how the Ethiopian forestry sector can incorporate climate concerns. To enable a proper implementation of REDD+ in Ethiopia, it is important to have a good understanding about different forestry development options in the country. In a recent effort to identify possible forestry futures, four scenarios were identified on basis of two components that affect the forestry sector. The two components are economic policy and political governance. By combining the two components, four forestry scenarios were identified: 1. Miserable forestry: This scenario can be characterized as Business-As-Usual scenario. It is based on the assumption that the current policy regime continues. The scenario describes a situation in which forest management is highly controlled by the state and decisions are made centrally. The rural economy policy is agricultural based with forestry being of minor importance. 2. Social forestry: In this scenario the rural economy policy is still agricultural based. However the governance system is decentralized, which provides forest dependent people with more secure tenure rights. 3. Economic forestry: In this scenario the economy is moving towards a liberal system and the government systems is decentralized allowing more regional and local authority. This stimulated the development of forestry as an economic enterprise. 4. Forestry in transition: Also this scenario is based on the development of a more liberal economy, resulting in an increase of private sector investments. However, land-use policies are still dominated by the central government and forests remain owned and managed by the state.

Vietnam is acknowledged to be REDD+ pioneer country, having adopted REDD+ in 2009. This paper is an updated version of Vietnam’s REDD+ Country Profile which was first published by CIFOR in 2012. Our findings show that forest cover has increased since 2012, but enhancing, or even maintaining, forest quality remains a challenge. Drivers of deforestation and degradation in Vietnam, including legal and illegal logging, conversion of forest for national development goals and commercial agriculture, weak law enforcement and weak governance, have persisted since 2012 up to 2017. However, with strong political commitment, the government has made significant progress in addressing major drivers, such as the expansion of hydropower plants and rubber plantations.Since 2012, Vietnam has also signed important international treaties and agreements on trade, such as Voluntary Partnership Agreements (VPAs) through the European Union’s (EU) Forest Law Enforcement. These new policies have enhanced the role of the forestry sector within the overall national economy and provided a strong legal framework and incentives for forestuser groups and government agencies to take part in forest protection and development. Nevertheless, new market rules and international trade patterns also pose significant challenges for Vietnam, where the domestic forestry sector is characterized by state-owned companies and a large number of domestic firms that struggle to comply with these new rules.The climate change policies, national REDD+ strategy and REDD+ institutional setting has been refined and revised over time. However, uncertain and complex international requirements on REDD+ and limited funding have weakened the government’s interest in and political commitment to REDD+. REDD+ policies in Vietnam have shown significant progress in terms of its monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) systems, forest reference emission levels (FREL), and performance-based and benefit-sharing mechanisms by taking into account lessons learnt from its national Payment for Forest Environmental Services (PFES) Scheme. Evidence also shows increasing efforts of government and international communities to ground forestry policies in a participatory decision-making processes and the progress on developing safeguarding policies in Vietnam between 2012 and 2017 affirms the government’s interest in pursuing an equitable REDD+ implementation. Policy documents have fully recognized the need to give civil society organizations (CSOs) and ethnic groups political space and include them in decision making. Yet, participation remains token. Government provision for tenure security and carbon rights for local households are still being developed, with little progress since 2012.The effectiveness of REDD+ policies in addressing drivers of deforestation and degradation has not be proven, even though the revised NRAP has recently been approved. However, the fact that drivers of deforestation and degradation are outside of the forestry sector and have a strong link to national economic development goals points to an uneasy pathway for REDD+. The business case for REDD+ in Vietnam has not been proven, due to an uncertain carbon market, increasing requirements from donors and developed countries, and high transaction and implementation costs. Current efforts toward 3Es outcomes of REDD+ could be enhanced by stronger political commitment to addressing the drivers of deforestation from all sectors, broader changes in policy framework that create both incentives and disincentives for avoiding deforestation and degradation, cross-sectoral collaboration, and committed funding from both the government and developed countries.